Push it in,Get the money now.
Originally Posted by skrsh76
Villain has solid status but high 3bet
11.6/9.8/ 3Bet 9.4 with 43% AF in 165 hands
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php
Hero (Button) ($10)
: Hero is Button with A
, UTG+1 raises to $0.30
, 4 folds
, Hero raises to $1.05
, 2 folds
, UTG+1 calls $0.75
: ($2.25) 10
, 3 (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $1.61
, UTG+1 raises to $3.90
, Hero ???
Shove. You are betting $8.39 to win $7.76, but you are at least calling so it is really only $6.10 more. Villain has to call $6.90 to win ~$16. A bad call for a flush.
Does he raise call with TT? Yes, and you are getting killed. Bummer.
77 or 33, T7, T3, or 73? I don't think so.
How about AA? No he 4 bets. KK? maybe but I'd 4 bet.
QQ, JJ, 99, 88, AK, AQs, Sure, maybe 3 bet QQ and AKs.
How about suited connectors? KQs, QJs, JTs, T9s?
His VPI is less than 10 and all of those likely hands together is ~6%
Against that range you are a 80/20 favorite.
Why not slow play. In the range we gave him he is drawing to a flush with 5 combos. If he hits you are dead, but won't know if he is bluffing
and will have to call it off.
He won't call the turn with a flush draw all in.
Since you have two of the aces, he has limited AK, AQ, AJ combos that might improve and get him to call a turn where he would have folded on the flop.