$10 NLHE 6-max: Turning top pair into bluff on river gone wrong/right

Hi everyone going to cross post this in cash game hand analysis, as I think it's an interesting hand from my challenge that I am attempting and I gave my thoughts on what was going on throughout the hand. Link to my challenge(I'm going through every stake level at merge and streaming many of my sessions on Twitch) thread if anyone wants a look at that:

https://www.cardschat.com/forum/poker-goals-challenges-wins-46/streaming-my-way-up-cash-game-254965/

Let's dive into the hand!

Merge, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $14.57 (145.7 bb)
Hero (BB): $14.57 (145.7 bb)
UTG: $10.41 (104.1 bb)
MP: $10.11 (101.1 bb)
CO: $11.29 (112.9 bb)
BTN: $11.66 (116.6 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8 Q
UTG raises to $0.30, MP folds, CO calls $0.30, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.95) 6 9 7 (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $0.40, CO calls $0.40, Hero calls $0.40

Turn: ($2.15) Q (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $1.10, CO folds, Hero calls $1.10

River: ($4.35) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $2.30, Hero raises to $12.77 and is all-in, UTG calls $6.31 and is all-in

Results: $21.57 pot ($1.19 rake)
Final Board: 6 9 7 Q 4
Hero showed 8 Q and lost (-$10.41 net)
UTG showed K K and won $20.38 ($9.97 net)


So pre flop, UTG is a tag on the nittier side, playing 17/15, CO was a fish playing 40/5 I probably would have called pre even if CO was standard tag just because I think I play much better postflop then pretty much everyone at these stakes, even the "good regs". If it had been folded to me after UTG raise I obviously would have made a super easy fold. CO being a fish just made it an easier call for me.

So on flop UTG bets tiny, less than half pot, with an OESD this is obviously a super easy call even if CO hadn't come along for the ride.

Turn gives us top pair and UTG fires out again for just about half pot, CO folds, and I make a super easy call top pair + OESD definitely can't fold that here for half pot, maybe even a call for full pot.

Now river is the 4 of clubs, completing the club draw. I check with intention of folding, but then he leads out for half pot, a curious sizing IMO. I figured he would either bomb river if he had a flush (with his UTG opening range, it would be AK AQ AJ or KQ of clubs, he would definitely bet close to or over pot with any of those hands) or just check behind with any other PP or Queen that he hit (JJ, 1010, AQ, and KQ not of clubs). I knew almost for certain he didn't have a set based off of play leading up to river ( he would have bet wayyy bigger on flop if he flopped a set, with the board that drawy tags @ these stakes are soo scared of being sucked out on they are bombing it the whole way) Same with thing with turn, if he had turned a set (QQ) (or even flopped a set) he would have bet bigger on turn with 3 to a straight and double suited on board. So at this point I say to myself he HAS to have Aces here, nothing else makes sense (or obviously KK) but AA is what I'm saying to myself. And then I'm thinking given the action if I was in his shoes and had played AA as he had, I would be bettish smallish on river with the intention of folding to a jam, especially against a fellow lag/tag (thats generally what I am) (I played 24/17 over this particular session), if its a fish maybe he's going crazy if he overshoves to your river bet so you call, but I could so easily have made a flush here which he has to fold to. A fish came in the hand pre and I have some sort of suited connecting hand (which I actually did) like J10 of clubs or something or even if my q8 was clubs instead of diamonds, so obviously I have flushes in my range here, this is exactly how I would play it and if I were in his position I would definitely have folded to my shove. Which is why I thought it was a good play, he ended up calling. Which I don't like but was the right play in this particular vacuum of a scenario. Oh yea one other thing I wanted to mention I figured some people might say some small % of the time he could also have AQ or KQ non clubsuited when he bets this river with this size which might be true in a vacuum of just the river street. But I'm pretty sure he wouldn't cbet flop with those hands. Vil cbet is only 63%, and multiway gotta be even lower. I would be very surprised if he (or most vils) bets either of those on that flop.

I was pretty steamed about this hand for the rest of my session but I generally don't actually let it affect my play at all . I have another interesting hand where I range merged that I think might be good for another analysis I might post after this, we'll see. It took longer to write this than I thought it would haha. But yea so theres one of my big hands from this session that didn't quite work out for me! But I'm still very happy with how I played the hand.

Wrong: He called
Right: I had him pegged and think he made a bad call.

:musicus:

Do you ever check the river with a flush there? If not, he may have bet half the pot to induce a bluff. Opponent may be putting you on busted str8s and missed spade draws a lot if you've developed a pattern of never checking strong hands on the river. Also If you've been bluffing a lot lately.

Sometimes the perfect bluff card can do bad things for you. Since it is such a good bluff, your opponent will anticipate you betting for value. But he'll also assume that you are bluffing with a lot more of your missed range as well making a counter intuitive call correct.

Given that your reads are correct, I really enjoyed the analysis. The only problem with it is that if you are right about him having an overpair maybe it might be better to give up since a lot of players (even if they feel they are beat) will call anyway just because they can't help themselves. (I'm a bit of a calling station myself at times. )



Perhaps everything about your thought process that you typed out was anticipated by your opponent. He knew everything that you typed and went one level ahead and called.

... or he just liked KK and felt like getting it in.

Why allin on the river?

Well played and well reasoned... I agree, the only thing you can think is that some people at those stakes won't give up to a river card after investing that much... Just keep that in mind and play the same way with the flush (as you've mentioned) and he'll pay you off! You could consider betting very large yourself on the river (maybe pausing a second before you do so, not insta betting it)

I'm usually that guy lol. and I play on carbon, so you can take my money.

I wonder if your playing that hand into a bluff would have worked had you 3bet pre-flop with your hand instead of just calling OOP pre-flop. With a suited 3 gapper there, I think you could have applied the pressure a little differently there.

I liked the analysis there, you obviously went into it with a gameplan, but the more I thought about it, the more fishy your check shove was, at least in this situation. Why? Well, primarily because his bet sizing throughout the hand was telling me that he was betting for value on the river and he felt that he had the best hand and probably was never folding no matter what. I think had you led out on the river, you could have induced a fold out of him. At the very least, it would have made his decision much tougher. Even if he calls, you would have lost less here.

But at the same time, that play might pay off long term for you against the same villain if you play a set or flopped two pair or flush the exact same way because now you'll know that he will obviously pay you off with just an overpair or TPTK, which is pretty much the same difference here. That and you know that he is obviously not a good enough player to find a fold here.

I think at the very least, you now know he is not capable/likely to make a big fold here, but you could have spent less to find that out. But overall, I don't mind the play you made because obviously, you get paid off in these situations more often than not.

Hmmm. Looks bluffy to me. Looks like you've missed and now you want to bluff, when fish want to bluff they jam all in.. It's a really nice strategy for getting paid off actually...
I'm on the mobile App and can't work out the maths for him making a call there after your shove, maybe later.

If you're planning to jam the river on a bluff card, maybe check raise turn? If you have him on AA/KK he should re pop it in situation. I just think a raise on the turn let's your represent a few more hands, rather than check raising the river after flatting all the way... And then check jam river which is almost never for value unless villain has seen you do it previously..

Wait... I actually have a few questions for anyone who can help me. I don't understand some of the more basic things here.

The Flop: Why is that an easy call? he could be betting that with a flush draw (sometimes) or a small pair (less likely) or an over pair(JJ or something). With an OESD what was your plan OOP? Or is this some implied odds thing?

Turn: this is easier to understand. But if you didn't hit that Q, what then?Are you still flatting with an OESD, or are you doing that just to flop bets? And if a club comes here instead?

Sorry for being this annoying and stupid, but I don't know if I should make a new thread for such things. I have a lot to learn about such hands, since I just started playing 6-max myself.