$10 NLHE 6-max: Does this river card mean I have to check?

Main question here has to be.. does the river card mean I have to check? Especially coupled with the fact that the CO called my large turn bet. And on top of that, is my turn bet too large? I guess in my head I was thinking I didn't want to give someone with a flush draw the odds to call. When he did call it lead me to think he could possibly have the straight and I was already beat.

Just typing this thread out makes me feel as if the only option is to check the river. But I dunno, I guess I'd like thoughts on this?

IPoker Network $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 2224770
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

UTG: $18.16 - VPIP: 20, PFR: 15, 3B: 7, AF: 1.7, hands: 20460
Hero (MP): $11.83 - VPIP: 19, PFR: 14, 3B: 4, AF: 2.3, Hands: 80907
CO: $7.87 - VPIP: 26, PFR: 19, 3B: 6, AF: 2.4, Hands: 3503
BTN: $11.14 - VPIP: 51, PFR: 4, 3B: 3, AF: 1.3, Hands: 89
SB: $7.49 - VPIP: 24, PFR: 18, 3B: 7, AF: 3.4, Hands: 12445
BB: $10.15 - VPIP: 20, PFR: 15, 3B: 7, AF: 1.7, Hands: 20460

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is MP with J Q
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.30, CO calls $0.30, BTN calls $0.30, SB calls $0.25, 1 fold

Flop: ($1.30) J 8 Q (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.90, CO calls $0.90, BTN folds, SB folds

Turn: ($3.10) 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $2.60, CO calls $2.60

River: ($8.30) 5 (2 players)
Hero ??

No. You can get called by AQ/KQ here and possibly worse depending on how bad he is. The only hands that have you beat by this point are AQh/KQh and I probably throw in KTh as well.

Only those three combos beat you. Anything better than 2P raises the flop or turn TBH. I can't see him flatting 88 OTF with two people behind either.

I'd make turn sizing small, it is unlikely you hit a backdoor flush to beat his AQ/KQ but he might find a fold if you bomb it. I'd say go for about 3.60-4.00.

CO has 3.80 left, so a 1/2 pot bet, in his stack. Shove all day long and get called by Qx, worse 2 p's, some rando overpairs

Oh yeah I just assumed villain was 100BB. Definitely just put him in here.

Shove, villain has $4 behind in a $8 pot. There's no way AQ or KQ are folding and we may well see some QT/JT/TT/99 hands.

Even if we gave villain a stupidly tight calling range where all we beat is AQ/KQ/78s this is still a bet!
{AQ, KQ, 78s} = 17 combos
{88, JJ, QQ, T9s, KhQh, AhQh, QhTh, KhTh} = 13 combos

Add to this that the bottom range might not flat call the flop, the top range certainly does and that lol at just AQ/KQ calling. Even if we added in T9o (which is a little looser than I'd expect from this guy) we're more than compensated for all the QT/Q9 we can now rely on.
A disclaimer to the range above it's pretty much the most biased worst case scenario I could conjure up this is a snap shove and isn't close as there are in reality between 30-50 combos we beat.

why would the river card mean you have to check? its higly unlikely that it improved his hand as there werent 2 hearts on the flop where he called you huge cbet. only hand that should be worrying you is 9-10 but the way the hand played out its an instashove on river.esp if you take into consideration pot to stack ratios.

As with the other hand I posted recently - I wanted to check that this was a hand I couldn't get away from. Villain showed Qh3h - I was surprised to say to the least... Not often expecting a 26/19 to call that hand pre in the CO.

Well played. Shove river or check/fold depending on what you think villain has/if he calls shove with KQ/AQ on this wet board.

Yoshimiii said:

Well played. Shove river or check/fold depending on what you think villain has/if he calls shove with KQ/AQ on this wet board.

Click to expand...

I'm never check/folding this, barring really specific reads he can't bluff or have worse ever ever. I might check-call if I think he never calls with worse but could bluff with worse. I mean, I am getting 3:1 on a river shove, after all, and even one single offsuited hand he could bluff with outnumbers the portion of his range that beats me.