$10 NLHE 6-max: Calling all-in with straight on wet board

N

noahband

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Good example of a hand that I am clueless about. I'd love to hear critiques on the way I thought it through, so I tried to be clear about my thought process at each point in the hand.

Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players


BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 27.18, PFR: 20.69, 3Bet Preflop: 9.68, hands: 61,212)
UTG: 133.4 BB (VPIP: 22.54, PFR: 12.68, 3Bet Preflop: 6.45, Hands: 74)
Hero (MP): 137.3 BB
CO: 189.4 BB (VPIP: 25.03, PFR: 19.31, 3Bet Preflop: 11.10, Hands: 13,692)
BTN: 187.6 BB (VPIP: 18.72, PFR: 13.19, 3Bet Preflop: 7.55, Hands: 245)
SB: 115.1 BB (VPIP: 26.76, PFR: 21.45, 3Bet Preflop: 8.38, Hands: 26,204)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J K

UTG raises to 3.5 BB, Hero calls 3.5 BB, fold, fold, SB raises to 14 BB, fold, UTG calls 10.5 BB, Hero calls 10.5 BB

Flop: (43 BB, 3 players) 4 9 T
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks

Turn: (43 BB, 3 players) 7
SB bets 19 BB, UTG calls 19 BB, Hero calls 19 BB

River: (100 BB, 3 players) Q
SB bets 82.1 BB and is all-in, UTG raises to 100.4 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 100.4 BB

Thought Process:
1. Am I supposed to call the 3bet squeeze preflop? I know that's a huge show of weakness but it seems like I'm priced into calling (getting ~3:1 odds).
2. On flop, seems like clear C4, so I check behind.
3. Now that I have 2 outs to a straight, hand is likely C3. However, after SB bets and UTG calls, I need 20% equity to call. I'm ~16% to hit the straight, but figure my implied odds are good enough if I do hit that I should just flat.
4. Here I need 26% equity to call. My (very basic) read was that they both had sets/two pairs - it seems like SB can easily lead turn with QQ, and UTG might play this way with 77 or T9s. I wasn't considering the possibility for flushes here (obviously a mistake to not consider it) but do we play any differently taking flushes into account?
 
Gohaku94

Gohaku94

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I don't understand why you would put people on specific hands like 77 and 9T pre. You are not sure if your call was correct with KJ but they your opponent has 77 and T9 in his range then your KJ is super strong. And i think you tried to analise this hand too much, you should have folded the turn cause your best outs are still bad ones even when you hit
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Fold pre, UTG raise from a tight villain with the whole table left to act is asking to get squeezed.

Fold the turn.
 
C

cs_rlewis

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Why would you not consider flushes on an all diamond flop?
Fold this hand pre makes no sense calling calling calling. Such a losing play in the long run even though you might have won this hand.
 
Hujiko

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1. Would not call 3 bet squeeze with KJs as it easily dominated and certainly when the pot is 3 bet. Your getting good odds and are IP so it is not a big mistake I guess.
2. Check is ok. That they both check is somewhat suspicious as nut flushes will prob check the flop.
3. Yes an 8 and Q will give you a straight and yes that is 16% chance, but a 8 or Q of diamonds probably will give someone a flush if they don't already have a flush (see point two). So you don't have 16% chance to river the best hand and even if you hit there is a distinct possibility that someone has the nut flush. So the turn is a fold even with such good pot odds.
4. Given the action preflop it is unlikely that UTG has T9 or 77. I only expect to see sets and better in the hands of the SB and UTG and even bottom sets (44 and 77) should not play this way. And as there are plenty of flushes out there (e.g. all broadway suited diamonds) I would probably fold even with such good odds.
 
TenJack

TenJack

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Alright, i agree with most of what was said here.

KJs is a marginal hand. It is dominated by lots of hands people like to play, like AJ, AK, KQ, AA, KK. we are going to really need to flop 2pair/trips or better to feel comfortable.

On the turn i think we need to fold. We have 8 outs, 2 of which will put 4 diamonds on the board. Our other 6 still aren't clean as the board is suited and even when we hit we will be in an awkward spot, even IP.

The river is a clear fold as well. Pot odds don't matter at this point imo. The chances that both opponents have a set/2 pair are slim and none, and slim just left town. Both opponents chose to gii on this river. We are playing wish-poker if we give utg 77 or T9. Why would SB jam QQ? He can only get called by 77 and win, which we have already said UTG isn't going to have. I think we chop at best.

Try to avoid A: making bad decisions based on math. Just because we are getting odds does't mean we should call a squeze with KJs. and B: drawing to a str8 on a suited board. We are losing money every time we do this.
 
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