Stats on Suckouts

I would like to see some stats on suckouts. Being that sites have no incentive to keep good players(they only withdraw), it's to their advantage for the donks to suckout out more often than they should. I haven't been able to figure out how you can get this info out of poker tracker or if it's even possible. If you have any ideas let me know.

Thanks,
Bill

well

Good players don't withdraw if they are making money.

Marginal Players withdraw since good players have more incentive not to.

Bad players reload when they get knocked out.

LOL what? How can anyone play for a living if they dont withdrawl? Do you know anyone that tells their employer to keep their paycheck because they already have money in the bank? OBV we withdrawl we have house payments just like you do.

bill461 said:

Being that sites have no incentive to keep good players(they only withdraw), it's to their advantage for the donks to suckout out more often than they should.

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I can understand the reasoning, but that's 100% wrong. Good players, just like bad players, do one thing for poker sites: pay the rake. As long as people are playing, the site is raking in money. A poker site could be made up of 100% sharks, and the site would still be earning money every time one of these players takes a seat.

That being said, I have seen no evidence that any site deals more suckouts than is statistically expected. And, given how many people are convinced that they sites favor the donks, you can be sure that if any evidence does arise, you'll read about it here.

PokerVic said:

that's 100% wrong. Good players, just like bad players, do one thing for poker sites: pay the rake.

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Being that winning players pay the rake with bad players money there is no way this is 100% wrong. If bad players get crushed like they should they're going to either quit(not likely) or go to another site(very likely). If a site doesn't keep it's depositors it won't be around long. Just look at the deposit bonus's the sites give out.

A poker site could be made up of 100% sharks, and the site would still be earning money every time one of these players takes a seat.

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Believe it or not this is a poker sites dream, all players of the exact same skill good, bad or ugly. Every player losing just the rake. The site would never make a payment.

PokerVic said:

I have seen no evidence that any site deals more suckouts than is statistically expected.

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I'll bet you haven't seen any evidence that they don't, either. This forum has a 4 page sticky on how many times AA was dealt. Lets see some stats on how many times you hit a set on the turn, get all your money in and got out drawn on the river. If poker Tracker has a way to figure this out, I can't find it. While most sites wouldn't do this I'm saying it's possible, most likely probable and a site would benefit from it. Let's see the evidence.


Bill

So basically a statistical measurement on how often three-of-a-kind wins the pot? It's not exactly what you're asking for, but if sets, or two pair, or straights, don't hold up as often as you'd expect them to, then there must be something fishy going on.

Gee, I just wish there was a way to check that in poker tracker.

fivetwooffsuit said:

Good players would NEVER withdraw!!

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.........and liars never cheat!!

bill461 said:

Being that winning players pay the rake with bad players money there is no way this is 100% wrong. If bad players get crushed like they should they're going to either quit(not likely) or go to another site(very likely). If a site doesn't keep it's depositors it won't be around long. Just look at the deposit bonus's the sites give out.

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Heres a nice quote from one of Phil Gordons books: "Bad beats,suckouts and lucky catches for my opponents are essential part of the game. If bad players couldnt occasionally get lucky and win,there whould be no poker games worth playing."

Bad players dont allways get crushed since even if they allways get there money in at 70-30% disatvantage the wil stil hit a run every once in whill and win. Witch wil make them think there good and are just going through a "dry spell" when there losing, the best part about bad players are the dont now there bad since they get lucky every now and then.

I cant be arsed to read this thread so ill just say this. If pokersites were wise they would reward good players so that these players can move up to higher stakes faster and pay more rake so your entire arguement is meh

i think a poker site would much rather have a 200NL grinder running 12 tables than some donk who thinks 1/2 live and online is the same and gives it a shot at a single table for an hour

sindri_93 said:

Heres a nice quote from one of Phil Gordons books: "Bad beats,suckouts and lucky catches for my opponents are essential part of the game. If bad players couldnt occasionally get lucky and win,there whould be no poker games worth playing."

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Where do you draw the line between occasionally and regularly.

BTW, great book.

Bad players dont allways get crushed since even if they allways get there money in at 70-30% disatvantage the wil stil hit a run every once in whill and win. Witch wil make them think there good and are just going through a "dry spell" when there losing, the best part about bad players are the dont now there bad since they get lucky every now and then.

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I'm not talking about preflop, I'm talking about on the flop or turn when the chaser is a 10 -1 dog or worse and does a lot better than that or so it seems.

Bill

joos said:

i think a poker site would much rather have a 200NL grinder running 12 tables than some donk who thinks 1/2 live and online is the same and gives it a shot at a single table for an hour

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The problem is for every 200NL grinder running 12 table there are 100,000 donks who think 1/2 live is the same.

Bil

actually good players withdraw all the time, however the site if it was interested in anything would be the most money staying on the site, as the large site makes a big portion of its money by investing all the deposits in interest bearing accounts(this is how they can afford freerolls) combine that with the rakes and you can see the conspiracty theorys... however I have tried to tracks stuff like that it gets way to complicated however certain sites seem to be worse but I can never fully justify that because it could be to the players being absolutely terrible. Those beats happen to all of us, and they happen to us all more online... however as I get better I notice I react to those less and less, the goal to eventually never take it personaly.

bill461 said:

I'm not talking about preflop, I'm talking about on the flop or turn when the chaser is a 10 -1 dog or worse and does a lot better than that or so it seems.

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Does it seem that way?

So you DO have proof?

sounds to me like the thread starter is playing a lot of freerolls and getting into the "shooling" situations. You can read a thread on tht from a day or so ago.

joos said:

i think a poker site would much rather have a 200NL grinder running 12 tables than some donk who thinks 1/2 live and online is the same and gives it a shot at a single table for an hour

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But if there weren't donks the 200nl grinder wouldn't play. Only flaw is that no 200nl grinder is claiming it's rigged. All the players claiming it's rigged aren't that good, and you'd think the sites would be rigging it FOR them.

As for the OP, I have ~300k hands in my db, and it has an all-in ev option, where it takes the money I should have won when I got my money all-in and the money I did win. I'm about 40 big blinds over my expected ev. That's damn close, so chalk one up to evidence against it being rigged. Where's your evidence? I believe the burden of proof is on you.

zachvac said:

As for the OP, ........ Where's your evidence? I believe the burden of proof is on you.

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That was my original question, I have a total of 200k hands on 3 different sites. I need software to figure it out. I have poker tracker 2&3, been told I can't do it.

300k hands in my db, and it has an all-in ev option

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What software are you using?


Bill

F Paulsson said:

Does it seem that way?

So you DO have proof?

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If you took the time to read my posts you would see I have no way of proving this point one way or the other. Thats what I'm trying to do.

I did take the time to read your post. You're claiming that it "seems" that people draw out much more often than they should. I would like to see the statistical data you're using for this tentative conclusion.

As Zach has pointed out, there are plenty of ways of checking this. PokerEV is one, checking the frequency of winning with different hands (one of the tabs in PT2, not sure about PT3) is another.

zach is talking about holdem manager i believe