Originally Posted by ramdeebam
Christ...what sort of limits are you playing then?
How "hot" are you running in terms of dollars ?
There is absolutely no way to quantify overall luck and especially not in PLO. Before Dec, I was running very hot yet was still like 30k below EV over 2-3 months. Dec came, I barely ran below EV and yet the first part of the month was easily the worst i have ever run at poker. Not even any point in quantifying it -if you run bad for life you run bad for life - the only decision you ever have is if you want to continue playing or not and if the answer to that is yes then who cares how you run as you can't control it (and yes it is much easier to say this in the middle of an upswing then in a downswing; however, i am completely aware that regardless of how bad i was running during the start of Dec, I was playing absolutely horrible and was almost certainly not playing winning poker).
Running a variance calculator on the hands i have in my data base give a 1% chance of winning about 270 buy ins over 90k hands and about a 1% chance of losing 50 buy ins over that period. Upper and lower winrate brackets for 95% CI are 25bb/100 and 2.5bb/100. That is given 90k hands at 14bb/100 at 166bb standard dev. (which is pretty ridic). Although, that said, the hands i have in my database are without a doubt the most swingy i have ever experienced, but point being don't play PLO (although the variance in PLO is great, because it means no matter how bad you are you will run hotter than the sun and think you are a poker god at some point). If you are playing nl5 ring your standard dev. is probably more like 40bbs at max (although for most people the winrate will be a lot lower which will make the $$/buyin swings seem worse - ie. a high winrate with a high standard dev. might only swing in the non-short term (short term swings will always be higher with high standard dev. no matter the winrate) as much as a low winrate with a low standard dev. - obv depends on the relative size of all those factors).