targeting your opponents...how to gauge which hands they may be holding?

Let's say you are the button and have seen four callers. You hold a small pair, and the player UTG raises three times the bet in tournament play, two callers and somebody else raises that bet.

The question really is not about how to play but how do you put somebody on a hand and if you do how accurate are you guessing the cards they hold?

What I assume...

The player UTG must have either a low pair, or AK-AJ.

The person raising has a mid to high pair or AK

because these two are in the pot, I fold my small pair.

Agree?

I agree with fold being a decent option. But I wouldn't limit UTG's range not to include bigger hands yet.

For figuring out ppls hand range,

Just sit there and take notice of the showdowns. Lolol simple stuff.

If ur online but haven’t played the person before, some will tell u its unethical but to get a general hand range -what u can do is use a site like pokerprolabs or something to see if their opponent is a winning or losing player first. do it during a break in the tourn or something, just exit the poker game and look em up.

a lot of times tourn players break even or lose a little then spike up because they did well in a particular tourn. but if we see a huge big nose dive into the red with a large nice sample of games then we assume more often than not the player doesn’t have a clue or loves to get “adventurous” and doesn’t play solid hands. A large sample of games goes against this person just being on a huuuuuuge losing streak or something. So wed put em on more of a looser range of hands.

U can also go to pokertableratings and just see exactly what type of hands they lose or win the most money with at the cash tables, and apply that knowledge to ur tourn.



For the second question with the baby pair- it depends on how much was the reraise? U got an ideal situation here for making a set here but was the reraise a lot? If ur in late position and its less than 10% of ur stack I could see a call there.

it helps if in ur late position with these hands so u know how much its gonna cost u to see a flop. U want to offer a small amount of ur stack- no more than around 10% of ur tourn stack for a chance to hit a set and hopefully get some1s elses entire stack. U don’t want to put too much in the pot because baby pairs are nearly worthless if they don’t hit the set. Ideally im hoping to catch my set with an ace or king on the flop without str8 or flush draws.

But a problem with hitting a set is unless ur opponent has an overpair to the flop in their hand or either an ace or king hits the board or some type of draw or something ur not gonna get paid for hitting the set really anyway. So becareful of how much u put in the pot preflop.

and if its too much to call then its just too much of ur stack to call, lololl.

so if u woula hit ur set there but didnt call because the price was too high dont wrry because u just didnt get the right price.

GL

In your example I think it's a pretty clear fold.

UTG raises, you have two callers after him, AND a 3bet! If you call you still have the blinds, the opening raiser (UTG) and the two callers to act after you before you get to see a flop. It pretty much sucks if you call here and UTG 4bets...

Mr Whatever mentioned that if you need to call less than 10% of your stack in late position it might be ok to set mine with your small pair. I'll agree with this under certain conditions.

First, you must be LAST to act or there at least must be a very small chance that anyone after you will 4bet. With an UTG opener left to act this isn't the case. Second, there needs to be at least one very aggressive player involved in the hand because you're going to need to be able to stack off when you do hit your set for this to be profitable.

As for your ranges, I think they can be a bit wider.

UTG can certainly have a mid or big pocket pair added to the range you estimated.

The person that 3bets here can also have a much wider range to include some more value hands AQ, AJs maybe, and some 98s type hands or pure bluffs.

It's not these hand ranges (which are ahead of your small pair) that should determine whether or not you call, rather the action and likely future action preflop. You need to see a flop cheaply for your small pair to be profitable.

You wouldn't call because you think you have the best hand, rather you call hoping to make a set and taking down someone's stack. This is going to be easiest to do when your opponent's range IS strong.

Disclaimer: I'm a heads up specialist and only play a few tournaments here and there, but I think this should be reasonably accurate!

If you and your opponents are deepstacked (150 and over), set-mining can be profitable. But obviously you don't want to commit 20% of your stack or something.

Easy fold with a small pair in that situation. Unless you have a huge stack in relation to the others.

As to what they might have, it depends. Without knowing more, I'd put UTG at 77+, AT+ -- but he could be looser or tighter than that. Raiser is likely to have JJ+, AQ+ -- again, with caveats. I tend to assume that someone who raises a UTG raise has a really good hand. And the times I also have a really good hand and shove (which lets me see the cards), I've often been right about that. Then it's flip time (or worse.) It's just silly to play a small pair against those expected ranges, unless you can get in cheap to set mine. (I see people shoving with the small pair and winning often, but that does not make it a smart play.)

In a freeroll, both UTG and Raiser may have a lot less than I imagined. But, still, if I am priced out, that's that.

Maybe, maybe not.

Not enough info here, but I think a lot depends on stack sizes and who you're playing for this stuff tbh.
Sometimes I like to raise utg with absolutely nada but depends on how much I have in front of me. So i wouldn't say Id defo be able to put him on an exact range. The question in my mind really is why only x3 the raise utg. If there's potential out there for some serious trouble, I'd be raising much more than that the consequences can be very dire. If I get lucky, theres no way the can put me on a big hand. By big I'm not talking pairs etc. Also a check on the flop looks suspicious if you miss. But I guess you should probably think some high kicked ace, maybe, or even a JJ,TT,99... maybe. Usually TT or JJ are played poorly because people dont want to commit money to them and dont want to fold so they sort of do a half way house. That would fit the description here.

As for the 2 callers after that, can't really tell at that stage what they have because they could call that with a wide range also. Not saying its right or wrong. Depends on how good they are. Could easily put them on some paint and/or some suited connector. Ax? would seem bad cards to call with. AJ in this position is not that good imo. Leaving a lot to chance.
Also possible small pair.

As for the raiser, AK or some pair of TT or higher.

With this small pocket pair I outta there.