Originally Posted by themosthigh
Sounds like throwing money away calling the raise when you know the shove is coming 99% of the time.
But you're happy to gii knowing we are behind? Hes probably shipping a set, str or 2 pair, so our AK arent outs. We have 36% for the flush but if he has a set or 2P he has redraw outs so our equity is smaller again. We arent getting any FE here, lets see the turn knowing we can fold if we miss and he shoves, and stack him if we hit.
We have an 18% chance of hitting the turn, so we're paying $1.18 to win $6.58 (inc our stake) assuming we stack him everytime we hit. We're getting 17.9% to call. The more I think about this, the more it could well be a fold. Its really close, either a call or a fold.
Maybe a better player than me will come in and contradict me but I think shoving is throwing money away.