Hit Flop Ratio and Downswings
First time poster, but have been reading the forums for a while so I doff my cap to you all.
I was hoping for some opinions on the hit flop ratio and how it relates to downswings.
First off, given any two unpaired hole cards, it is said you hit the flop 32% of the time. Looking around, it is not clear to me if this percentage includes flopping flushes and straights also (the maths for those odds
are presented separately). Most definitions say it is the odds of flopping pair, 2pair, set or quads. In PokerTracker, the hit flop ratio statistic definition includes flushes and straights.
I have approx 10,000 hands logged on PT4. One of the reports you can download from their website will show you the hit flop ratio for unpaired hole cards. In this report for all my hands so far, my hit flop ratio 5.2. So I'm hitting the flop 19.37% of the time. I see the flop about 17% of the time.
Now, I'm in a downswing at the moment unfortunately. I won't bore you with the details except to say I play microstakes on PokerStars
. At this level, I cannot be creative or try any plays like bluffing
or semi-bluffing. These players just call anyway, or draw you out. So I find that hit or fold poker is the best strategy to beat these stakes for the most part. Correct me if I'm wrong.
The problem with this strategy is that it can be cruel when things are going against you (as they sometimes do in poker). I don't mind the bad beats, but spending an hour waiting for good cards and then missing when I get them has had its effect on my game. Mostly stupid calls and decisions, but I have these minimised now with analysis and discipline. I do see this downswing as an opportunity to work on the mental aspect of my game and in a sick way will be a little sorry when it passes.
So, my question to you all; Can downswings be defined or quantified by statistics?
In my example, I'm missing the flop 13% more than I should and have been over 10,000 hands. My flopped set with pocket pairs stat is off too, but only by 2% overall (strange I thought this stat would be more prone to variance). I would also like to make a report to clearly show how often I'm getting premium playable cards and whether I'm down overall here as well.
Is 10,000 hands too small a sample for this?
Is it a bad idea to focus on these kind of stats?
If you go a 4 hour long session getting rubbish cards for the most part, and then none of them hitting the board, does this affect you mentally as well?
Or do bad beats grind your gears more?