This is a discussion on Hit Flop Ratio and Downswings within the online poker forums, in the Cash Games section; Hi all,
First time poster, but have been reading the forums for a while so I doff my cap to you all. :)
I was hoping for
First time poster, but have been reading the forums for a while so I doff my cap to you all.
I was hoping for some opinions on the hit flop ratio and how it relates to downswings.
First off, given any two unpaired hole cards, it is said you hit the flop 32% of the time. Looking around, it is not clear to me if this percentage includes flopping flushes and straights also (the maths for those odds are presented separately). Most definitions say it is the odds of flopping pair, 2pair, set or quads. In PokerTracker, the hit flop ratio statistic definition includes flushes and straights.
I have approx 10,000 hands logged on PT4. One of the reports you can download from their website will show you the hit flop ratio for unpaired hole cards. In this report for all my hands so far, my hit flop ratio 5.2. So I'm hitting the flop 19.37% of the time. I see the flop about 17% of the time.
Now, I'm in a downswing at the moment unfortunately. I won't bore you with the details except to say I play microstakes on PokerStars. At this level, I cannot be creative or try any plays like bluffing or semi-bluffing. These players just call anyway, or draw you out. So I find that hit or fold poker is the best strategy to beat these stakes for the most part. Correct me if I'm wrong.
The problem with this strategy is that it can be cruel when things are going against you (as they sometimes do in poker). I don't mind the bad beats, but spending an hour waiting for good cards and then missing when I get them has had its effect on my game. Mostly stupid calls and decisions, but I have these minimised now with analysis and discipline. I do see this downswing as an opportunity to work on the mental aspect of my game and in a sick way will be a little sorry when it passes.
So, my question to you all; Can downswings be defined or quantified by statistics?
In my example, I'm missing the flop 13% more than I should and have been over 10,000 hands. My flopped set with pocket pairs stat is off too, but only by 2% overall (strange I thought this stat would be more prone to variance). I would also like to make a report to clearly show how often I'm getting premium playable cards and whether I'm down overall here as well.
Is 10,000 hands too small a sample for this?
Is it a bad idea to focus on these kind of stats?
If you go a 4 hour long session getting rubbish cards for the most part, and then none of them hitting the board, does this affect you mentally as well?
Or do bad beats grind your gears more?
11th January 2014, 10:12 AM
Online Poker at: PS, FTP
This is one of the better articulated first posts I have seen, and it deserves a proper answer
1) Probability non-pairs will pair at least one card is 32% - this means you get 1 pair or 2 pairs this percent of the time. 30% your pair one card and 2% you pair both.
2) If you play suited connectors (32s - AKs), pairing only one card is usually not brilliant (depends on which connector we are talking about).
With SCs you flop 2P+ around 5.6% of the time, straight draw around 10.5% (this probably refers to medium SCs since those at the ends should be worse since they don't hit both ways) and flush draw around 11% of the time, for total of around 27% of hitting the flop the way you need to.
Take into consideration that even with a draw (if it is not combo draw) you don't actually make the hand most of the time and sometimes your straight/flush is not the nuts OR you won't get paid for it.
3) 10k hands is a small sample for sure, some of the stuff sometimes doesn't normalize for a long time (100k hands).
4) It is a good idea to know where you are at, for example if normal frequency to hit sets is 11.8% and over 50k hands you hit 6% (yeah I have been there) and when you do hit it is set-under-set then it really affects profitability.
* I once had a month at 10NL where I was 3-18 in set vs. set situations and managed to break even. Next month I killed everybody just because it stopped happening.
5) Play shorter sessions, it will affect you less. It used to really piss me off when there is a spewer at the table and I get crap hands for hours. Now I don't care anymore.
6) Bad beats suck but they are a part of poker. If I get hit a few times I usually immediately stop the session and review the hands to see if those were actually bad beats or my sizing/strategy sucked and I gave correct drawing odds or whatever.
11th January 2014, 6:10 PM
Poker at: Pokerstars
LD1977, thanks for your response.
So to be clear, there is no 1 stat that covers the probability of flopping 1pair, 2pair, set, quads AND flushes/straights (not draws)? This is where I'm unsure of the 32.xx% that I've seen quoted. I was looking for a fixed percentage/ratio that covers all unpaired hole cards (suited or unsuited, connector or not) and their odds of flopping any hand above high card. I imagine its close enough to 32% anyway but...
Good shout on the shorter sessions by the way; It's hard to remain 100% focused throughout a 4/5 hour straight session. Might split them up into 2x2 hour runs instead.
11th January 2014, 8:16 PM
Online Poker at: PS, FTP
As far as I know, nope. But I might be wrong, I am using HM2 and not PT. There could be such stats for separate types of hands (pairs, suited connectors).
In HM2 you can easily make and save your own filters for this though (define hand strength on flop and pick types of hole cards).
11th January 2014, 8:37 PM
Mr Sandbag [2,635]
LD is right. First posts are usually "i tilt. wut do i do."
Hashtag, you can actually do the math yourself and find out how often any unpaired hand will flop a pair or better. You just need the odds of each circumstance happening (odds of flopping pair, odds of flopping trips, etc.). Then I believe you plug them into the following equation:
1 - (1 - p1)(1 - p2)(1 - p3)...
Please correct me if I'm wrong, anyone.
As for your downswing, just keep playing solid poker. Use it as an opportunity to improve your game. Without downswings, why would anyone be motivated to get better?
Just remember in the long run coolers/suck outs/bad beats don't really matter. Being card dead really doesn't matter either. It's just the nature of the game, and all you can do is play your best through long streaks of run-bad. Sometimes it can be frustrating, but although it doesn't seem like it, folding is actually a very profitable poker play.
12th January 2014, 2:01 AM
Online Poker at: Bovada
Game: NLHE Cash
re: Poker & Hit Flop Ratio and Downswings
Originally Posted by hashtag
I cannot be creative or try any plays like bluffing or semi-bluffing. These players just call anyway, or draw you out. So I find that hit or fold poker is the best strategy to beat these stakes for the most part. Correct me if I'm wrong.
I haven't played micros at Stars, but if it's similar to US micros, you can play a lot better than just betting when you have a hand and x/f'ing when you miss. I can't believe that everyone you play against is a complete calling station. Some people fold too much, some people call too much, some people raise too much. Playing fit or fold might work on some opponents, but obviously not all of them or you'd probably be winning. I wouldn't be surprised if you're only losing because you're not betting enough and not calling enough.
12th January 2014, 8:34 AM
Poker at: Pokerstars
Mr. Sandbag, your math is correct, but it will get more complicated (more parentheses) given the odds involved with suited/unsuited hole cards. To be honest I didn't want to go through all that myself. Wanted to coerce you guys into doing that hard work, but it seems you are all too smart for that Its not a game changer anyway, but a point of interest.
DaReKa you are 100%, they are not all like this; In fact (6max) you will find approx 4 players 15VPIP/12PFR/8%3bet etc. Others are complete NIT's (how the hell are you playing 8VPIP/5PRF?? without also getting a hard-on watching paint dry?). These are good for stealing blinds and staying afloat (cont betting in position too). I'm actually pretty good at this and if I folded all my potential action and really concentrated on stealing when I thought I could get away with it, I would actually double my buy in every 1/2 hours. I'd say anyway...
The fact is my game lacks maturity. Not buckling mentally and better post flop work is my way forward. None of you can help me with this; Pity.