19.86bb per 100 hands. Is this a good win rate?

hey guys, I've been playing 2NL and downloaded pokertracker 4. I have found it helps me out ALOT. I've been earning 19.86bb per 100 hands but its only over 2500 hands. Is this enough hands to say my winrate is stable? Even though its only 2500 hands I must be doing something right to be beating 2NL. This couldn't be all good variance? When do you think I should move up in stakes? In the last 1000 hands I'm getting 49bb/100

You are on a really sick heater. Enjoy it while it lasts . Your winrate, or losing rate I should say, over a small sample like that could easily be negative instead. You can take a shot at 5NL when you have 20BI/25BI, whichever one is more comfortable for you. Personally, I like 25BI or 30BI, a little more past 100NL due to the tilt that can ensue after downswings because of the absolute $ amount.

I'm not so sure statistics-wise if you can call it just good luck. It's been so long since I studied this kind of stuff, but I was always amazed at how small a sample size could be to give a pretty good estimation. If I recall, it has something to do with the bell curve and standard deviation. Maybe that doesn't apply to poker, but I'm not sure why.

Just look at the presidential polls -- they'll ask a sample size of around 1,000 people and be able to predict within a few percentage points how the whole population would vote.

I think you'll be fine. You've shown that you are doing something right. Just make sure you have a lot of buy-ins for the next level before you give it a try. When I say a lot, I mean whatever you can handle that won't make you play like you are scared of losing. I think that has to be different for everyone depending on their aversion to risk. Mine is actually 100. And don't forget that you can move back down if you go under your required amount. In fact, demand it of yourself.

Your on a heater, and no it won't last. Anything over 5bb 100 is killer these days, maybe not at 2nl, but just give you some reference. I imagine at 2nl good players could sustain 10bb per 100 pretty easily. I do wonder how much rake hits you guys, it has to be hard, possibly the hardest, depending the stakes compared to buyins.

2500 hands is not enough sample size to declare your win rate, but it is also more than just to say it was luck. I would be very surprised to see if it drops below 5 bb.

Like everyone else has said 2500 isn't even a sample but imo 20bb/100 at 2NL is sustainable if you don't kill yourself first after playing so many hands at 2NL? GL either way.

I'd say you are on a heater.

A sample size of 2500 hands is nothing. Check again after 20K+ hands, or better: 100K+ hands. You'll have a clearer picture then.

The variance in this game is so big that, with a winrate of 20bb/100 after 2500 hands, you could still be a losing/breakeven player in the long run.


You're probably a winning player at these stakes. But I doubt your true win rate is even remotely close to 20bb/100.

What does PT4 say your standard deviation is?

There is no doubt he is on a heater but 15-20bb/100 is deffo sustainable at 2NL

Post your winrate after at least 25 000 hands.

that's a great win rate but come back when u have played 50k or 100k hands

You better enjoy and appreciate this run of GREAT LUCK...because it often wont last long...and it can change to a run of very bad luck, in 1 hand . Now sometimes great luck in poker can last for months or years...just as bad luck in poker can run as long . Its interesting to note, that for many poker players who have played for years, and ran with good luck or average luck, have no clue how devastating it can be to get a long run of very bad luck in poker. Since they never experienced this, they cannot relate to it, or understand that it happens . For the year of 2015, Phil Ivey went on a bad luck run in poker and lost millions . If it can happen to one of the best players in the world, I assure you it happens to us no name players in society. For me, nothing makes a poker game more miserable then hours and hours of cold cards and bad beats , that last for months or years. I have found the best medicine for such scenarios, is to take off for several months to try and break the bad luck cycle.

or when you decide to move up to higher limits, where the game play changes drastically.

Probably a heater, but it's not that hard to do off of Stars.

2,5k hands are nothing. you have to play 100k

I had a stretch of 3k hands at 5NL where my win rate was 55bb/100. I shit you not, I won 16.5 BI over 3k hands. Yet my overall win rate at 5NL is -11bb/100 over 26k hands.

So no, any sort of results over a sample size of <10k hands is meaningless.

Heater - at 5nl Zoom I was running about 93bb at around 1K hands and 20bb for 5K hands, if only it could have lasted

Nice rhom! I have a student right now who is at 21.5bb/100 at 10nl over his last 6k. Variance is really hard for people to grasp at first.

p.s.... your stats are looking better and better. Solid.

Thanks but those those stats were from 6 months ago when I started at 5nl Zoom. Since then I ran like a piece of $41t at that level lol. I just posted them to show OP, you need alot of hands to show a truer winrate

I was like most people who thought 1000 hands was a good sample and 5K was alot alot when I first started playing, but then realise the more you play, the more you understand variance and what a $%^&* it can be