Originally Posted by WhereDidMyEVGo
you are confused but its not entirely your fault...the way he wrote it was confusing
(0.5)^9=0.001953125 so~.2% chance that he fails 9 times in a row if he has a 50% chance of succeeding
Yes, I see now....Thanks! Like the odds
of flipping 9 heads in a row....but, still, on the 10nth flip the odds of flipping heads is still 50/50, 1/2, 0.50, or 50% and not (0.5)^10 = 0.0009765625 or ~0.1% Right?
I do see the value of the complaint....I am just curious about the expectations of the outcome....Gamblers Fallacy? Normal variance from central tendency?
In otherwords, with independent events, would it be correct to base future conclusions based on past events? It's a very curious subject: it's sometimes hard to see that a group of independent events, say landing heads 9 times in a row, doesn't increase your EV for betting tails on the next flip (because tails are due). Right?