When does it end?

CDNMAN 42

CDNMAN 42

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I am referring to the so called Variance, I play on 4 different sites, on three of them I have reasonable results win some etc, however on the 4th site, pokerstars I suffer from a long continuous losing streak, I mean I cannot win a race a flip or catch a draw, even with 15 outs on the flop, I just cannot catch, cannot win. This has been going on for approximately 37 days and that is playing 5 or more MTTs $1.50 buy ins daily. When I do catch AA or very good starting cards either no one calls or I get out drawn by garbage. I have read I should be patient and keep playing, however, when this goes on for such a long time and only on one site I am beginning to believe that the site in question uses algorithms to identify winners and losers prior to cards being dealt and if you are on the losing end of the algorithm there is no way out except to not play. Thoughts? :):):)
 
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fundiver199

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According to your sharkscope profile you are playing 1,5$ 18-man SnGs on PokerStars. These games have a very high rake, and they are probably also somewhat reg infested like any other SnGs on PokerStars. These are the two reasons, why they are difficult to beat. It has nothing to do with the RnG. But if you find games on other sites, that are softer and/or have a lower rake, then by all means play these. Or play the 1$ 45-mans on Stars. They have a much more reasonable rake, and they are not turbos, both of which makes a substantially higher ROI possible.
 
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et bilu

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Personally, I've given up on this site and accept that in life you don't always win.
 
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donpiatnik

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I am referring to the so called Variance, I play on 4 different sites, on three of them I have reasonable results win some etc, however on the 4th site, PokerStars I suffer from a long continuous losing streak, I mean I cannot win a race a flip or catch a draw, even with 15 outs on the flop, I just cannot catch, cannot win. This has been going on for approximately 37 days and that is playing 5 or more MTTs $1.50 buy ins daily. When I do catch AA or very good starting cards either no one calls or I get out drawn by garbage. I have read I should be patient and keep playing, however, when this goes on for such a long time and only on one site I am beginning to believe that the site in question uses algorithms to identify winners and losers prior to cards being dealt and if you are on the losing end of the algorithm there is no way out except to not play. Thoughts? :):):)


In the short term, luck plays a big role. But you also need to know that the field of stars is the best. It is most conspicuous on small bets.
 
A

arsenalcho_1

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hi

why don't you continue only in the three of which you win and remove the fourth site?
 
MAGICUZ

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PokerStars is a normal site, you just need to be patient and if you are a good player then the distance will spill everything into place
 
terryk

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We all get the same cards,,,, :deal: Play better and you will win,,,,
 
jaymfc

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I am referring to the so called Variance, I play on 4 different sites, on three of them I have reasonable results win some etc, however on the 4th site, PokerStars I suffer from a long continuous losing streak, I mean I cannot win a race a flip or catch a draw, even with 15 outs on the flop, I just cannot catch, cannot win. This has been going on for approximately 37 days and that is playing 5 or more MTTs $1.50 buy ins daily. When I do catch AA or very good starting cards either no one calls or I get out drawn by garbage. I have read I should be patient and keep playing, however, when this goes on for such a long time and only on one site I am beginning to believe that the site in question uses algorithms to identify winners and losers prior to cards being dealt and if you are on the losing end of the algorithm there is no way out except to not play. Thoughts? :):):)
well, my question would be why do the algorithms always pick you as a loser?
surely they haven't heard how you treat people at the table? :p
have you been studying your game for any leaks? 37 days isn't even close to a record in bad variance,
work on your game and your attitude, there's a light at the end of the tunnel ;) good luck :)
 
Mati532

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why don't you just continue on the three you won and eliminate fourth place?


I agree with you brother, if you have losses in Pokerstars that you continue in the other 3 rooms.
 
A2020

A2020

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If you, for whatever reason, think it's related to the platform itself, then I would suggest you take a break from playing on it.
At least for a while or until you feel like you need to play there once again.
 
Zorba

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I am referring to the so called Variance, I play on 4 different sites, on three of them I have reasonable results win some etc, however on the 4th site, PokerStars I suffer from a long continuous losing streak, I mean I cannot win a race a flip or catch a draw, even with 15 outs on the flop, I just cannot catch, cannot win. This has been going on for approximately 37 days and that is playing 5 or more MTTs $1.50 buy ins daily. When I do catch AA or very good starting cards either no one calls or I get out drawn by garbage. I have read I should be patient and keep playing, however, when this goes on for such a long time and only on one site I am beginning to believe that the site in question uses algorithms to identify winners and losers prior to cards being dealt and if you are on the losing end of the algorithm there is no way out except to not play. Thoughts? :):):)
Why would the sites want to drive players away, it makes no business sense.

AA and good starting hands are not guaranteed to win, how the hands were played has a lot to do with it.

:hmmmm2:
 
Zapahlohotrona

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You should not count the days, but the number of buy-ins. In this discipline, streaks of 20-30 buy-ins are normal. So if you lose more, you should think about it. That means you are doing something wrong.
 
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fundiver199

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37 days isn't even close to a record in bad variance

Exactly. 5 tournaments per day for 37 days is only around 200 tournaments, and its completely normal even for winning players to lose over such a small sample. I can not even count, how many times I have lost over 200 tournaments in my "career". OP seem to be playing 18 man turbo SnGs on Stars, and we can use the variance calculator at Pokerdope to calculate the risk of losing over 200 events.

We enter 18 players, 4 places pay, 1,5$ buyin, 12% rake, 200 as the number, we are going to play, and lets give Hero a 5% ROI to start with. This might sound pessimistic, but these events have a small field, a turbo structure and a very high rake, so its definitely going to be difficult to achieve a dubble digit ROI. The result of the calculation is, that Heros risk of losing is 36,4%.

Now lets try to be really optimistic and assume, Hero is crushing these games with a 10% ROI. That does reduce the risk of losing, since the stronger upwards trend will pull Hero out of downswings faster. But Hero is still losing 23,9% of the time. So its still not like, this is some extraordinary unlucky run at all.

And frankly when Hero has chosen a game with so much rake and a fast structure, its a big achievement to win anything at all. PokerStars keep 18c of each 1,5$ buyin as rake, so after 200 events, if Hero is down less than 36$, he has actually beaten his opponents but just not the rake.

And this is an important reality check as well. Its the nature of raked games, that marginal winners will still end up losing to the rake. And maybe we are only a marginal winner in the game, we have selected to play. Maybe we need to improve our game to beat the rake. Or maybe we should select another game, which is easier to beat because of lower rake, softer competition or a better structure.
 
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Zirkzee

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37 days still have too little informative value. I've been playing at Pokerstars for three years and I've had good times and bad times. I could not find any manipulation of the software. I have the feeling that I am sometimes more unlucky than lucky, but every player is sure to feel that way. You have to remember that tournament poker has a higher variance than cash games. I am not a fan of tournament poker. Television has made tournament poker look glamorous and like a competition where skill prevails. However, the truth of the matter is that lucks plays a much larger factor in tournaments than in ring games. Think about this way: at a regular no-limit game, if you started with $ 2,000 what is the chance that you would end up with $ 2 million before the night was over? Zero. However, to win a tounament where awake player has 2k starting chips and 1,000 people enter, you would need to win two million in chips to win the tournament. Not an easy feat to do unless lady luck truly smiled upon that day!
 
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fundiver199

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I have the feeling that I am sometimes more unlucky than lucky, but every player is sure to feel that way.

Absolutely true. When is the last time, you heard a poker player admit, that part of their results were due to a sunshine run? It never happens! But whenever people hit the bad side of variance, we are sure to hear about it. Its self-deception, and the majority of poker players suffer from it.
 
jaymfc

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Why would the sites want to drive players away, it makes no business sense.

AA and good starting hands are not guaranteed to win, how the hands were played has a lot to do with it.

:hmmmm2:
if that's your opinion then "enjoy jerk" :p
Exactly. 5 tournaments per day for 37 days is only around 200 tournaments, and its completely normal even for winning players to lose over such a small sample. I can not even count, how many times I have lost over 200 tournaments in my "career". OP seem to be playing 18 man turbo SnGs on Stars, and we can use the variance calculator at Pokerdope to calculate the risk of losing over 200 events.

We enter 18 players, 4 places pay, 1,5$ buyin, 12% rake, 200 as the number, we are going to play, and lets give Hero a 5% ROI to start with. This might sound pessimistic, but these events have a small field, a turbo structure and a very high rake, so its definitely going to be difficult to achieve a dubble digit ROI. The result of the calculation is, that Heros risk of losing is 36,4%.

Now lets try to be really optimistic and assume, Hero is crushing these games with a 10% ROI. That does reduce the risk of losing, since the stronger upwards trend will pull Hero out of downswings faster. But Hero is still losing 23,9% of the time. So its still not like, this is some extraordinary unlucky run at all.

And frankly when Hero has chosen a game with so much rake and a fast structure, its a big achievement to win anything at all. PokerStars keep 18c of each 1,5$ buyin as rake, so after 200 events, if Hero is down less than 36$, he has actually beaten his opponents but just not the rake.

And this is an important reality check as well. Its the nature of raked games, that marginal winners will still end up losing to the rake. And maybe we are only a marginal winner in the game, we have selected to play. Maybe we need to improve our game to beat the rake. Or maybe we should select another game, which is easier to beat because of lower rake, softer competition or a better structure.
very nice breakdown ;) remind me to avoid you at the tables :p
the truth is he has a problem with tilt and gets angry at the players who beat him,
most likely affecting his play.
 
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Lucky_Shark

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Playing MTSNG for 45 people for $ 0.25, I show a good result. But playing for$ 1, I often get into the cooler and lose. And I don't play badly, but my opponents have a feeling that they play worse than people at 0.25$
 
TeUnit

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I do not play on stars, but they sngs used to have a ton of regs. Maybe you are just playing in more difficult games than you are on other sites. Another thing you could do is make sure you are playing correctly by running hands through an icm calculator like sngwiz or icmizer. The icm in 18 mans is different than the icm in your standard 9 man. You also may want to game select better by choosing games in the lobby with weaker players.
 
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pokerstars is the best and most honest poker site. therefore, there are a lot of players. and a lot of professional poker players. therefore, it is difficult to win pokerstars. and there are few players on other poker sites. there is a lot of probability of winning there
 
CDNMAN 42

CDNMAN 42

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again

Exactly. 5 tournaments per day for 37 days is only around 200 tournaments, and its completely normal even for winning players to lose over such a small sample. I can not even count, how many times I have lost over 200 tournaments in my "career". OP seem to be playing 18 man turbo SnGs on Stars, and we can use the variance calculator at Pokerdope to calculate the risk of losing over 200 events.

We enter 18 players, 4 places pay, 1,5$ buyin, 12% rake, 200 as the number, we are going to play, and lets give Hero a 5% ROI to start with. This might sound pessimistic, but these events have a small field, a turbo structure and a very high rake, so its definitely going to be difficult to achieve a dubble digit ROI. The result of the calculation is, that Heros risk of losing is 36,4%.

Now lets try to be really optimistic and assume, Hero is crushing these games with a 10% ROI. That does reduce the risk of losing, since the stronger upwards trend will pull Hero out of downswings faster. But Hero is still losing 23,9% of the time. So its still not like, this is some extraordinary unlucky run at all.

And frankly when Hero has chosen a game with so much rake and a fast structure, its a big achievement to win anything at all. PokerStars keep 18c of each 1,5$ buyin as rake, so after 200 events, if Hero is down less than 36$, he has actually beaten his opponents but just not the rake.

And this is an important reality check as well. Its the nature of raked games, that marginal winners will still end up losing to the rake. And maybe we are only a marginal winner in the game, we have selected to play. Maybe we need to improve our game to beat the rake. Or maybe we should select another game, which is easier to beat because of lower rake, softer competition or a better structure.

It is nice to quote stats etc and %s however in the real world the results are what does it,, now in a MTT 18 players I get down to final 6 and am in first place.. then this..really what else could I have done???:):):)
https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/924VzAqxK
 
dallam

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It is nice to quote stats etc and %s however in the real world the results are what does it,, now in a MTT 18 players I get down to final 6 and am in first place.. then this..really what else could I have done???:):):)
https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/924VzAqxK

If we think it over, what else could he had done having K9s from that position with 15bbs? I don't think push is such a bad move, it can be the most optimal, and maybe you were leading it but it turned out simply unlucky.
Yeah Stars offer really big variety of games, and I do belive the faster games have variance which can broke people in really small amount of hands. We all 've been there, better luck next time.
 
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fundiver199

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It is nice to quote stats etc and %s however in the real world the results are what does it,, now in a MTT 18 players I get down to final 6 and am in first place.. then this..really what else could I have done???:):):)
https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/924VzAqxK

You could not have anything about this hand, but your results over 200 tournaments are not determined by just this one hand. We all get our aces cracked at around the same frequenzy, so this is not, what separate winners and losers. What does is game selection and the ability to make good decisions in hands, that dont play themselfes, as this one did.
 
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fundiver199

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If we think it over, what else could he had done having K9s from that position with 15bbs? I don't think push is such a bad move

Its definitely a fine push, if the players behind him understand ICM and call as tight, as they are supposed to. ICMizer even has Q3s as a push in this situation, so K9s is not near the bottom. The main reason is, its a disaster for anyone else to bust before HJ only 2 players away from the money. He could also min-raise, but the problem is, that invite Hero to jam on him, in which case he has to fold a lot.
 
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fundiver199

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I do not play on stars, but they sngs used to have a ton of regs. Maybe you are just playing in more difficult games than you are on other sites.

Exactly. I am currently playing SnGs on Stars, mostly because I had to withdraw most of my poker money, so I am kind of starting over and also just chilling out a bit. I have even played some 1$ 45-mans, mostly to see for myself, how these games play now. And I have to say, that for such low stakes, they are shockingly reg infested. So if OP find more success elsewhere, then maybe just forget these Stars SnGs for now.
 
Bnobob

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Mmos Ps 'Science

playing Mmos is not easy. I earn 3/15. Champion 1/15. pS game:joyman::deal:
 
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