What are the maximum odds of winning the tournament?

BelFish

BelFish

Legend
Loyaler
Joined
Aug 11, 2019
Total posts
1,580
Awards
1
BY
I mean are there any estimates for games for N players. Since we are trying to determine the maximum odds, we should only consider the best players in the world class, such as Negrianu.

For example, if Phil Ivey will play a 220 player freeroll from CardsChat, could he have a > 4%-5% chance of winning, or is that not possible?
 
BelFish

BelFish

Legend
Loyaler
Joined
Aug 11, 2019
Total posts
1,580
Awards
1
BY
It would also be interesting to estimate the chances of winning for a player who can see all the cards of the others. Could he have a chance of winning > 50%? Maybe > 90%? Or maybe he can't win more than 15% of games...
 
Tracid

Tracid

Squirrel Tiger
Community Guide
Joined
May 28, 2016
Total posts
6,360
Awards
6
I mean are there any estimates for games for N players. Since we are trying to determine the maximum odds, we should only consider the best players in the world class, such as Negrianu.

For example, if Phil Ivey will play a 220 player freeroll from CardsChat, could he have a > 4%-5% chance of winning, or is that not possible?
I think it would be difficult to calculate, lots of variables...

It would also be interesting to estimate the chances of winning for a player who can see all the cards of the others. Could he have a chance of winning > 50%? Maybe > 90%? Or maybe he can't win more than 15% of games...
I think if you can see all your opponents' cards and know how to play poker, it's difficult to lose.

Just look at ultimate bet super user and Mike Postle..

If you know your opponents holdings, difficult to lose...
 
BelFish

BelFish

Legend
Loyaler
Joined
Aug 11, 2019
Total posts
1,580
Awards
1
BY
I think it would be difficult to calculate, lots of variables...
Maybe some professional players made some estimates according to their statistics over a long distance... Or someone made at least rough estimates with calculations in books...

Although they say that there is no limit to perfection in the skill of the game, it is still impossible to exceed a certain percentage of victories in tournaments. If all players are approximately equal in skill, then everyone's chance of winning is about p = 1/N, perhaps even for the top tournament players the chance of winning cannot exceed p = 3/N.

I think if you can see all your opponents' cards and know how to play poker, it's difficult to lose.

Just look at ultimate bet super user and Mike Postle..

If you know your opponents holdings, difficult to lose...
Perhaps for tournaments with a very slow structure, this is close to the truth. Or perhaps very far )) Without practice, such a game is difficult to understand. For example, you should always fold AA with preflop all-ins to exceed the probability of winning the tournament at least 80%. I doubt that in a tournament for 10,000 people you can take first place in more than 10%, provided that you see all the player's cards.
 
Last edited:
Poker Odds - Pot & Implied Odds - Odds Calculator
Top