USD16.50 Deep Stack - Set on the flop vs action

[dehzao]

I have a solid image on the table and am showing lots of value, just lost in a bad beat KK vs. AT. I look probably as the rock of the table and have the chiplead.

Villain was the chipleader of the tournament two orbits ago and is currently on a downhill... However, look solid, hasn't been doing anything stupid so far.

I flopped a set against him, the other big stack... How to extract maximum value??? What hands should I put him in?



pokerstars, $14.70 + $1.80 - Hold'em No Limit - 200/400 (40 ante) - 9 players
Hand delivered by Upswing Poker

UTG: 24,674 (62 bb)
UTG+1: 9,960 (25 bb)
MP: 15,136 (38 bb)
MP+1: 31,767 (79 bb)
LP: 14,413 (36 bb)
CO: 21,208 (53 bb)
BU (Hero): 32,382 (81 bb)
SB: 6,520 (16 bb)
BB: 27,932 (70 bb)

Pre-Flop: (960) Hero is BTN with 9♥ 9♠
3 players fold, MP+1 raises to 1,200, 2 players fold, Hero calls 1,200, SB calls 1,000, 1 fold

Flop: (4,360) 9♣ A♠ T♦ (3 players)
SB checks, MP+1 bets 2,000, Hero calls 2,000, SB folds

Turn: (8,360) 7♥ (2 players)
MP+1 bets 7,600, Hero ???

Just call?
Mini-raise to attract a shove from him?
Shove?
FOLD???

Why?

 

[5pAce_C0wb0y]

Have you run his perceived raise through flopzilla or anything?

 

[xy23]

I would just call here. From his betting pattern, it seems like he's trying to rep the ace and there's not too many river cards that should worry us.
If he checks to me on the river and the river's a blank, I would bet for thin value to get paid from Ax hands.
If he bets on the river, I can shove over on top or call his river jam.

 

[foran]

he already showed a lot of strength, in that circumstance we do not want a bad card on the river that stops the bets, in that case he would send all in or raise him so that he can send all in. In fact I like the miniraise on the flop.

 

[tmfnsanders]

Ummm I guess your 3bet button preflop was broken? Make it 3k to go preflop, then SB either folds or shoves and you can isolate when it comes back to you. Or the villian isolates and you fold your 99.

As played preflop, I like a clickback on the flop because it will usually serve the purpose of making him check turn and river to me and let me dictate the action as I see fit. This allows for pot control if the board gets silly, while also giving me the option of 2 more big bets if the board bricks out.

As played on the flop, I think I'm just getting it in on the turn because damn near any 7-A is gonna be a scarecard on the river and our lack of 3balling preflop or raising flop pretty much means he has a huge range here- some of which he's already ahead with but not too much. There are a bunch more straight draws or pair straight draw combos that are willing to get it in right now when we're ahead. If he has J8 then we just need to fill up, if he has AA or TT then so be it, we just spike our 1 outer on the river---- EZ game is EZ.

 

[eetenor]

Solid player big turn bet?

I have a solid image on the table and am showing lots of value, just lost in a bad beat KK vs. AT. I look probably as the rock of the table and have the chiplead.

Villain was the chipleader of the tournament two orbits ago and is currently on a downhill... However, look solid, hasn't been doing anything stupid so far.

I flopped a set against him, the other big stack... How to extract maximum value??? What hands should I put him in?


PokerStars, $14.70 + $1.80 - Hold'em No Limit - 200/400 (40 ante) - 9 players
Hand delivered by Upswing Poker

UTG: 24,674 (62 bb)
UTG+1: 9,960 (25 bb)
MP: 15,136 (38 bb)
MP+1: 31,767 (79 bb)
LP: 14,413 (36 bb)
CO: 21,208 (53 bb)
BU (Hero): 32,382 (81 bb)
SB: 6,520 (16 bb)
BB: 27,932 (70 bb)

Pre-Flop: (960) Hero is BTN with 9♥ 9♠
3 players fold, MP+1 raises to 1,200, 2 players fold, Hero calls 1,200, SB calls 1,000, 1 fold

Flop: (4,360) 9♣ A♠ T♦ (3 players)
SB checks, MP+1 bets 2,000, Hero calls 2,000, SB folds

Turn: (8,360) 7♥ (2 players)
MP+1 bets 7,600, Hero ???

Just call?
Mini-raise to attract a shove from him?
Shove?
FOLD???

Why?

Thank you for sharing.

Getting into the heads of our opponents helps us to understand their ranges better.
This OPP raised mp1 was called by you and bet Axx twice, the turn bet for 85% pot leaving him 21k ish and making the pot 16k ish

Thoughts to consider, does he want a fold or to go for stacks? The turn bet is that kind of bet.
If he wants a fold does he expect you to fold AQ AJ AXsuited no two pair?
If he does not think you will fold an ace he must have an ace beat. 1010 AA A10 even A9 or A7 77, could be AK usually solid players know better than to bet AK like that but he could be on tilt and just wants to end the hand.
You said you were the rock at the table does he think he can bluff you off an Ace with his KK or QQ then fold to any aggression on turn or bet on river.

If he is on tilt will he suicide bluff the river for a pot size bet.
He sizing is wrong on the turn for a solid bluff over bet on the river.

Hope this helps.

 

[dehzao]

Thanks you all for the replies!

Interesting to see the insight on the preflop action.. I agree with the guy who said I should have isolated with the SB and fold to a 4-bet from the opener. Fight for 7k chips with no action in between seems more safe than to risk 3BB to see a flop that will rarely make me feel good so good point!

Well, by the way he played the hand I could easily put him on Ax right? KK & QQ were also in his range but bear in mind this guy would shut down at the river with those two hands am I wrong?

So... I could actually called and wait for a bluff on the river but if in fact this guy has an ace he will slow things down on the river if it appears a full straight draw, and if he has KK or QQ he wouldn't give me action anyway... So IMHO, the nicest way to go is to just shove here and exploit the Ax on his range? That's what I did and I would like some comments before I post what happened next...