Top pairs and AKs variance

Adi8877

Adi8877

Visionary
Joined
Jan 26, 2019
Total posts
995
Based on the probability of dealt hands, I am curious, how long others get dealt these hands under the math chance. (any pair 221:1, AKs 330:1, AKo 82:1, pair 1010 or better 43:1)

As my February looked like this, based on 32.6K hands:

Hands # Compare to prob.
AA 101 68.47%
KK 122 82.70%
QQ 165 111.86%
JJ 119 80.67%
1010 152 103.04%
1010+ 659 86.92%
AKs 102 103.25%
AKo 252 63.38%

I never take so much attention for it, as until now, it wasn't so much visible, how dead I am without the AA and AK, based on the number of hands, I was pretty much shocked, how far they are even from average. The rest of the pairs shows around the average. (Hope, this time finally, some crazy thing will come back to my direction, too...)

An other 'good' one , I went AA preflop allin against 1-2 opponents 73 times won 57 (most of the time it was against 1 oppononent, however I did not check it back), so that's around 78% winning rate, what is a bit below the average. Pretty hard to do anything against it, and play tourneys like this in long run, as most of the time, I can't reach FT without these cards, + winning them, mostly I depend on the luck - what wasn't on my side in Feb, either. I lost count losing with higher kicker hands, what should be one of the best, most profitable way, especially in pre-flop allin cases.

How long does the similar runs keep going for you, guys? What do you do in this time, how do you change your range, especially deep in the tourneys, between 15-30 BB? And how do you change it under 15BB-20BB? (I just saw few players recently, whose push all their stacks, from the button, even from mid positions with any suited straight connector, like 24s 35s, 47s and they are very profitable. Is it one of the solution?)

And if you monitored your hands, at least through a months, and saw up and downs like this, please share it. How did it effected your mid run results?
 
E

eetenor

Legend
Joined
Mar 5, 2019
Total posts
1,794
Awards
1
Based on the probability of dealt hands, I am curious, how long others get dealt these hands under the math chance. (any pair 221:1, AKs 330:1, AKo 82:1, pair 1010 or better 43:1)

As my February looked like this, based on 32.6K hands:

Hands # Compare to prob.
AA 101 68.47%
KK 122 82.70%
QQ 165 111.86%
JJ 119 80.67%
1010 152 103.04%
1010+ 659 86.92%
AKs 102 103.25%
AKo 252 63.38%

I never take so much attention for it, as until now, it wasn't so much visible, how dead I am without the AA and AK, based on the number of hands, I was pretty much shocked, how far they are even from average. The rest of the pairs shows around the average. (Hope, this time finally, some crazy thing will come back to my direction, too...)

An other 'good' one , I went AA preflop allin against 1-2 opponents 73 times won 57 (most of the time it was against 1 oppononent, however I did not check it back), so that's around 78% winning rate, what is a bit below the average. Pretty hard to do anything against it, and play tourneys like this in long run, as most of the time, I can't reach FT without these cards, + winning them, mostly I depend on the luck - what wasn't on my side in Feb, either. I lost count losing with higher kicker hands, what should be one of the best, most profitable way, especially in pre-flop allin cases.

How long does the similar runs keep going for you, guys? What do you do in this time, how do you change your range, especially deep in the tourneys, between 15-30 BB? And how do you change it under 15BB-20BB? (I just saw few players recently, whose push all their stacks, from the button, even from mid positions with any suited straight connector, like 24s 35s, 47s and they are very profitable. Is it one of the solution?)

And if you monitored your hands, at least through a months, and saw up and downs like this, please share it. How did it effected your mid run results?

Thank you for posting.

A general point regarding your numbers is that sample size is very important so when you get to 1 thousand hands with AA KK you may see much different numbers.
However variance is such that you may need many more hands than that to overcome it. When you run sims 10% of the sim tournament players can be running well below EV even as long as 6000 tournaments.

A specific point about tournaments and your point about not getting to final tables. In tournaments in order to final table we have to win pots without holding the best hand preflop early in the tournament so that our stack is not so short that when we take beats we are knocked out of tournaments.

What this means is we have to be looking to steal pots when we can and to be making big bets with strong draws. We cannot just rely on grinding down our stack to 10bb and then hoping to show down the best hand when we do get all-in. This of course means we will be busting out of the money more often as that is the trade off we must pay for final table runs.

Hope this helps
:):)
 
Adi8877

Adi8877

Visionary
Joined
Jan 26, 2019
Total posts
995
Thank you for posting.

A general point regarding your numbers is that sample size is very important so when you get to 1 thousand hands with AA KK you may see much different numbers.
However variance is such that you may need many more hands than that to overcome it. When you run sims 10% of the sim tournament players can be running well below EV even as long as 6000 tournaments.

A specific point about tournaments and your point about not getting to final tables. In tournaments in order to final table we have to win pots without holding the best hand preflop early in the tournament so that our stack is not so short that when we take beats we are knocked out of tournaments.

What this means is we have to be looking to steal pots when we can and to be making big bets with strong draws. We cannot just rely on grinding down our stack to 10bb and then hoping to show down the best hand when we do get all-in. This of course means we will be busting out of the money more often as that is the trade off we must pay for final table runs.

Hope this helps
:):)


I see your point, maybe I wasn't enough specific, earlier, back in almost a year, I never had a month like this, or at least I did not take attention for the dealt hands, as when I checked them, it was always between +-10%. Never up or down 20-30%

The other thing, I did not mention, I play mostly small field tourneys, exactly to avoid the wild variance. Usually 100-400 regs, max 600-800, but those are the less. Also half of these are hyper and turbo, where anyway, you steal a lot, and the allins are more common preflop, so without these hands, it is really hard, I need much more luck. Even in the deep stack tourneys, near to ft bubble, especially in February mostly i reached that phase as short stack.

Basically, I know what the solution for it, mostly I just curious, are there players here, whose monitor their dealt hands, do they have similar up and downs within 30-100k hands, ( usually i play in a normal month around that) Do they really use all the suited cards for stealing, does it work for them, or how does it work? but not so many people (i mean nobody) want to share the numbers, details, facts... ( meantime everybody faking the full transparency, they just forget to explain what that would mean deeply...)

(I just had a nice start in this month, even without any monster series...) so anyway, i will survive...
 
F

fundiver199

Legend
Loyaler
Joined
Jun 3, 2019
Total posts
11,092
Awards
1
Outcomes like this are basically a log-normal distribution, and any statistics book can tell you, how to perform the calculation of the distribution of outcomes. I am not going to do it, but it does seem like, some of these outcomes are pretty far out the tail like maybe a 5% risk of running this bad or even less. Anyways we cant really do anything about being card dead, and it just goes to show, that even 30k+ hands is not such a large sample, as many people tend to think.

If you play 300k hands, the numbers will for sure get much closer to the long term averages. Also seeing bad results over 30k tournament hands is pretty normal, and it does not really matter, which part of variance went against you. There will also be samples, where you underrealised your equity in all-in pots or ran bad postflop. Hitting less sets, flushes and straights than expected, being on the bad side of most coolers and so on and so forth.
 
CKALLDAY

CKALLDAY

Enthusiast
Joined
Feb 19, 2021
Total posts
91
I see your point, maybe I wasn't enough specific, earlier, back in almost a year, I never had a month like this, or at least I did not take attention for the dealt hands, as when I checked them, it was always between +-10%. Never up or down 20-30%

The other thing, I did not mention, I play mostly small field tourneys, exactly to avoid the wild variance. Usually 100-400 regs, max 600-800, but those are the less. Also half of these are hyper and turbo, where anyway, you steal a lot, and the allins are more common preflop, so without these hands, it is really hard, I need much more luck. Even in the deep stack tourneys, near to ft bubble, especially in February mostly i reached that phase as short stack.

Basically, I know what the solution for it, mostly I just curious, are there players here, whose monitor their dealt hands, do they have similar up and downs within 30-100k hands, ( usually i play in a normal month around that) Do they really use all the suited cards for stealing, does it work for them, or how does it work? but not so many people (i mean nobody) want to share the numbers, details, facts... ( meantime everybody faking the full transparency, they just forget to explain what that would mean deeply...)

(I just had a nice start in this month, even without any monster series...) so anyway, i will survive...

“Smaller fields” of 100-400 may reduce variance but playing hyper and turbos will increase variance relative to the size of the tournament.

One cannot always wait for premium hands in those tournaments and so you will have to learn to “feel out spots” a little better and some of the things that you suggested seeing other players be successful with may be a strategy to implement given the right situation as well as position.


As for the deep stack tournaments having a similar result, this all comes down to accumulating chips earlier in the tournament, as has already been suggested. The style at the beginning of the tournaments are similar regardless of the structure, you just need to play your premium hands, as well as draws, even a little more aggressive earlier on a hyper/turbo. Easier said than done, and will always improve with more and more experience.
 
Adi8877

Adi8877

Visionary
Joined
Jan 26, 2019
Total posts
995
“Smaller fields” of 100-400 may reduce variance but playing hyper and turbos will increase variance relative to the size of the tournament.

One cannot always wait for premium hands in those tournaments and so you will have to learn to “feel out spots” a little better and some of the things that you suggested seeing other players be successful with may be a strategy to implement given the right situation as well as position.


As for the deep stack tournaments having a similar result, this all comes down to accumulating chips earlier in the tournament, as has already been suggested. The style at the beginning of the tournaments are similar regardless of the structure, you just need to play your premium hands, as well as draws, even a little more aggressive earlier on a hyper/turbo. Easier said than done, and will always improve with more and more experience.


Obviously, I never wait for the premium hands in those tourneys, I am doing okay on those tourneys, as well. When I mentioned, I am pretty much dead without these cards, I meant, I relegate more often earlier in ITM - maybe just reached it, maybe in the FT bubble, however pretty hard to operate with the pre-flop allins, if plenty times I am the underdog 30-70%, 40-60%, often the smaller vs higher pair...

Generally, still nobody gets the point, why I posted it, and nobody share similar stats about their dealt cards...
 
Adi8877

Adi8877

Visionary
Joined
Jan 26, 2019
Total posts
995
Outcomes like this are basically a log-normal distribution, and any statistics book can tell you, how to perform the calculation of the distribution of outcomes. I am not going to do it, but it does seem like, some of these outcomes are pretty far out the tail like maybe a 5% risk of running this bad or even less. Anyways we cant really do anything about being card dead, and it just goes to show, that even 30k+ hands is not such a large sample, as many people tend to think.

If you play 300k hands, the numbers will for sure get much closer to the long term averages. Also seeing bad results over 30k tournament hands is pretty normal, and it does not really matter, which part of variance went against you. There will also be samples, where you underrealised your equity in all-in pots or ran bad postflop. Hitting less sets, flushes and straights than expected, being on the bad side of most coolers and so on and so forth.


Basically, that's why I posted it, I am interested in how others have swings like this, as - does not matter time or dealt hands - I tried to count how big is the chance for that in 30K dealt hands, even I did not take it seriously, just more or less, but it gives me 1 month in a 4-5 years period.

Anyway, I will post here the same basics about my dealt cards in the beginning of every month. So lets see how it changes month by month. In this 1,5 weeks, it looks like stopping, it is about average maybe a bit under. And I don't care much the 'education' staff out there, that's far behind me, I care how it is in the practice, in the reality, and maybe the comparsion to the 'education' staff.

In February almost all part of the variance went against me. It happens, it is not about that, simply it was really strange when I saw the numbers, I supposed something wrong with the imported hands, as it was so visibly down, basically I just checked it because it was strange that days gone without AA,KK, AKs....

Yesterday I had a day what I did not see since in a month or 2. I got the cards, rarely got beaten with monsters in my hand, maybe 1 AA and QQ, got pokers, and flops found me plenty times, even the magic rivers few times (today that's gone back, as at least 20 A higher kicker burnt on the turn or river vs A smaller kicker)...
 
Adi8877

Adi8877

Visionary
Joined
Jan 26, 2019
Total posts
995
As I reached an other 30K hands, just a quick update - first of all for myself, it's good to be record it somewhere online.

Hands # Compare to prob.
AA 124 91.35%
KK 112 82.51%
QQ 132 97.24%
JJ 126 92.82%
1010 132 97.24%
1010+ 626 89.73%
AKs 85 93.50%
AKo 272 74.35%


I have stronger and stronger feeling - to be honest, I am almost sure - they have the ability to set up the so called random number generator, however they want like a physical slot machine in a casino, and they run company bots, everywhere, as does not matter what i play cg, tourney, omaha or holdem, against given players, I just can't play, as they have always the next better hand or take down my monster with anything - especially the button, sb, bb situations, and these 'good' players, as their stat shows that, but they always win with huge luck, what i never have in weeks, months long run. Today, only count these 'players' i lost preflop allins AA vs 86o, AA vs KK and few was the usual, as a sort stack i get walk till sb, from sb i push allin with AQo+ cards and the bb has AA, KK, QQ or even if not still wins.... and it is the normal, not just today, it is quiet common. However it is understandable, if I get 10% worse cards like given players, I forced to play with them, ergo, I am going to lose more often, as they have more often the nuts.... nothing about poker and impossible to do anything against it.... maybe i withdraw all my online 'poker' money and go to a casino, play away on a slot machine, at least that's publicly a legal theft category, so i know with what i am facing....



I just found few more players with the same doubt i have, they have same run for months, over 200K+ hands....


It piss me off very much that in this last 30K hand not even one kind of strong hands reached the 100% compare to the average math based numbers..... so I think it is a good proof, you can throw out through the window any kind of online 'poker education' crap, as they are able to set it up however they want.


Looks like for me they set it up around 90%, as it is averaging that now (even under 90%), not the 100%, and if I see that the 100% is 90% in the reality, then the swings up and down statistically looks okay





The other thing, the lost preflop allin monster hands are always in situation where i go for ITM or FT, not always, but 80%+ and that's generally like that.... pretty f@cking strange... the books, study about online poker does not mention and count on this evil manipulation by humanoids....


Oh, I have checked the most often dealt hands, too. Over 120% they are like Q4o, 94o and 82o..... the cards what you will almost never play.....



I am thinking to leave this online poker crap forever, would rather watch some debile show or series, but if i won't leave it to the hell, then I will post again and again these stats.... I am pretty sure it never will balance, and go highly over, how the A higher kicker vs A smaller kicker losing never balance - I already have more than 500K hands about that, my win rate is 64% in that cases, except one or two days per a week, everyday 10-30 busted like that....



I really would like to see more and more people share the same details about their hands stat, it does not say anything about the players, only the online softwares and RNGs. So please share it, if you have any available stat like this.
 
F

fundiver199

Legend
Loyaler
Joined
Jun 3, 2019
Total posts
11,092
Awards
1
Your computation for AK is wrong. There are 1.326 different combinations of starting hands, and 16 of them are AK, which mean, that over 30k hands, we should see AK 362 times. You saw it 357 times so almost spot on the long term average. You did see TT+ around 10% less frequently though, since that computation is correct.

But this is certainly not a huge deviation, and ask yourself what a poker site would achieve by dealing less premium hands to players? Some people speculate, that the RNGs might be "rigged for action", since action generate rake. But this would be the exact opposite, which honestly makes no sense.

Then you might say, that they have selected other players to win at your expense. But how do they select those players? Jonathan Little did pretty well in ACRs high stakes MTTs, when he played them, until he got banned for speaking badly about the site. You could check his video about the incidence on YouTube. He is not affiliated with ACR, and he is certainly not sugarcoating anything. But he is not saying, the site is rigged either.

With all that being said if you dont trust a particular site, then by all means withdraw your funds and stop playing. And also stop playing, if you are not winning and not having fun either. But if poker is something, you really want, you are probably just looking for excuses to not put in the volume and amount of hard work, which is required to succeed.
 
ASHUKPOK

ASHUKPOK

Rock Star
Joined
Feb 21, 2018
Total posts
127
Awards
4
Based on the probability of dealt hands, I am curious, how long others get dealt these hands under the math chance. (any pair 221:1, AKs 330:1, AKo 82:1, pair 1010 or better 43:1)


And if you monitored your hands, at least through a months, and saw up and downs like this, please share it. How did it effected your mid run results?


As for me, when I participating in MTT, I try to maximize my stack on the small blinds stages, playing with the hands of AA and AK all-in. In the later stages, even with the hands of AA, KK and QQ, I play carefully, because very often me beaten by the worst starting hands of players with meager stacks.:cool:
 
Adi8877

Adi8877

Visionary
Joined
Jan 26, 2019
Total posts
995
As for me, when I participating in MTT, I try to maximize my stack on the small blinds stages, playing with the hands of AA and AK all-in. In the later stages, even with the hands of AA, KK and QQ, I play carefully, because very often me beaten by the worst starting hands of players with meager stacks.:cool:

It is not about how I play or not play given hands, on my level I know how to play them, at least, it is okay for me.

I mentioned above that I play plenty turbo and hyper, so this 10%+ down significantly effects every single tourney, as there are 20+ preflop allin cases. Losing them is okay, I get used to it, basically I have no problem with that, until it does not push too far from the mid, long math average into the unbelievable category, and I think 30-50K hands should be enough for that, compare to a live player, he does not play that much hand in a year
 
F

fundiver199

Legend
Loyaler
Joined
Jun 3, 2019
Total posts
11,092
Awards
1
and I think 30-50K hands should be enough for that, compare to a live player, he does not play that much hand in a year

Which is why, downswings or sunshine runs in live poker and especially tournaments can last for years.

 
Adi8877

Adi8877

Visionary
Joined
Jan 26, 2019
Total posts
995
Your computation for AK is wrong. There are 1.326 different combinations of starting hands, and 16 of them are AK, which mean, that over 30k hands, we should see AK 362 times. You saw it 357 times so almost spot on the long term average. You did see TT+ around 10% less frequently though, since that computation is correct.

But this is certainly not a huge deviation, and ask yourself what a poker site would achieve by dealing less premium hands to players? Some people speculate, that the RNGs might be "rigged for action", since action generate rake. But this would be the exact opposite, which honestly makes no sense.

Then you might say, that they have selected other players to win at your expense. But how do they select those players? Jonathan Little did pretty well in ACRs high stakes MTTs, when he played them, until he got banned for speaking badly about the site. You could check his video about the incidence on YouTube. He is not affiliated with ACR, and he is certainly not sugarcoating anything. But he is not saying, the site is rigged either.

With all that being said if you dont trust a particular site, then by all means withdraw your funds and stop playing. And also stop playing, if you are not winning and not having fun either. But if poker is something, you really want, you are probably just looking for excuses to not put in the volume and amount of hard work, which is required to succeed.


Pardon me, you are right, I don't know why I used the 83:1 for the AKo instead of 110.5:1
By the way, your count is wrong, too...

If I see the first 32.6K hands correctly
AKo 252 times multiply by 110.5 equal 27846 and divide it by 32.6K equal 85.41%
The overall AK, ( 252 AKo + 102 AKs ) 354 was 90.12%

And in the second 30K hands it was 272 AKo hands so it is 100.18%, so that's the only one, what reached the theoretical average.

I don't know - and like to hear it from you - why the 12% down is not a huge deviation based on 60K hands (probably it is way over 150K anyway, as I saw the same pattern for 2 more months, I just deleted the hands, so couldn't check it), then how much is that???? Just compare to live poker, a live player doesn't play this much in a year, probably few years...

And what do you think, based on how many hands should I take a sample, wait till 1 million, when even the 50-100K takes months for most of the players, and the 'education' out there most of the time says it is enough - some even says the 10K is enough from dealt hands.

About the rest, you try to give words in my mouth, what you wish to hear, that was pretty much like that in Little case, too. He spoke about online poker generally, most of the time, if someone gets offended because of pointing facts, and ban people because saying facts - like youtube, fb, tw and the other psychos do it nowadays in the old commie way -, then probably that one single guy is right. Just common sense... based on the: 'if it is not true, I don't care theory'... ( nowadays history is full with these cases, top companies, banks whistleblowers, Snowden example, or even about the virus, the single heroes, whose became public enemy by everybody, in the mainstream, media and within the circle of the brainwashed...so they delete them everywhere... new normal)

It is not about one site, as I saw the same on all the sites where I've played, and if I see it is about money, even small, what can happen that will happen, as they are humans and after the money everywhere. (just few big case from the last decade, what you probably heard of: house market crash, tesco, vw, last time the big banks money laundering for the 'terr@rists, human trafficers, drug cartels etc worldwide - strange, the same people wash their money and bomb them in the same time... is it the reality what we see in mainstream 24/7 or a lie river???) I don't trust in any site, it is obvious, Little said the same - they proved it, he did it by reason, as they banned him (even the acr is struggling with the grow with or without him, I saw there too, new players coming playing few dozen, hundred tourneys or few thousand cg hands and leave. That's a fact. Oh and dozens registered in every month because of Little, they are just gone...) If you follow the traffic details, you know.

Generally, about the last part, I don't trust in any online platform, as they exist against us. All the soc media craps and generally all sites where you are doing any online activity exist for watching, manipulate and control you by evil purpose. This is the only one where I still active, left all the rest, as I saw in the real life what and how they use against people, so obviously not the online poker will be the one, I will trust. And I have studied programming, it is still pretty much the basic, how easy to set up an RNG for given direction. And I am not the one who is saying peaceful protest when cities burns, I say it based on my own experience and numbers, details, facts....

But we are different. Strange, that I asked in every second post, if someone has the same details, basic stats post it, please. Prove me the opposite, but you don't want to do it, either anyone else....
 
S

sekcapilniqt

Visionary
Joined
Oct 13, 2015
Total posts
538
very rarely do i get them and get them always something else appears on the table unlike my cards that i have in my hands
 
F

fundiver199

Legend
Loyaler
Joined
Jun 3, 2019
Total posts
11,092
Awards
1
My largest database is NLH cash hands played on pokerstars. Sample size 370.375.

AA: 1.633 (1.676)
KK: 1.651 (1.676)
QQ: 1.723 (1.676)
JJ: 1.689 (1.676)
TT: 1.707 (1.676)
AK: 4.585 (4.469)

All numbers are within a few percent of the statistical mean, which I put in brackets.
 
ASHUKPOK

ASHUKPOK

Rock Star
Joined
Feb 21, 2018
Total posts
127
Awards
4
It is not about how I play or not play given hands, on my level I know how to play them, at least, it is okay for me.

I mentioned above that I play plenty turbo and hyper, so this 10%+ down significantly effects every single tourney, as there are 20+ preflop allin cases. Losing them is okay, I get used to it, basically I have no problem with that, until it does not push too far from the mid, long math average into the unbelievable category, and I think 30-50K hands should be enough for that, compare to a live player, he does not play that much hand in a year

Probably I can't give you any advice. I play both MTT and Cash with the same tactics. More successful in MTT. Sorry.:(
 
Adi8877

Adi8877

Visionary
Joined
Jan 26, 2019
Total posts
995
My largest database is NLH cash hands played on PokerStars. Sample size 370.375.

AA: 1.633 (1.676)
KK: 1.651 (1.676)
QQ: 1.723 (1.676)
JJ: 1.689 (1.676)
TT: 1.707 (1.676)
AK: 4.585 (4.469)

All numbers are within a few percent of the statistical mean, which I put in brackets.


Thank you, man!

You are the first sharing it. Good to see, finally someone get it. So it looks like, more or less balanced for you in the 370K hands, good to see that, anyway.

I post my March ones today or tomorrow, did not get much better altogether 80K+ hands, and probably 40-60K more, as I recognized it in Dec, but I record it just from Feb. If it will come back to the 98-102% range in the next 1-200K hands, I am going to make huge money...

Also will post, what I have found out for surviving, as earlier the allin equity and my bankroll looked like pretty much the same, both was going up, however since i recognized and monitor this downswing thing, my allin equity goes up, but my bankroll struggle in the same range, so I've taken very seriously the 'forget variance in online poker' phrase in the last 2 weeks, and I am really surprised how good it works in this situation for weeks, perhaps it works for months, too. My allin equity struggle, even goes down, but my bankroll like skyrocket... very strange. I took attention for that since long time, as I play 40-50% turbo and hyper, and it is really important. However with this downswing, it is really common I face 20-80% preflop in forced key situations (and this is just one thing) , as I just simply get dealt less monster....

Once again, thanks for sharing it!
 
Adi8877

Adi8877

Visionary
Joined
Jan 26, 2019
Total posts
995
Probably I can't give you any advice. I play both MTT and Cash with the same tactics. More successful in MTT. Sorry.:(


No worries, first of all, I did not start it for advice, but other players share the same, and compare it, tell their experience about their worst periods like this. (if they had, I don't think it can happen commonly) Also how it affected their results, if they had any trick to survive these months etc. Obviously, if someone doesn't take attention for it, can't recognize he/she struggle more or less because of this - how I did before.

Anyway, I am doing okay, even in these times... but really annoying... there are plenty phases when you are preflop allin or fold, and this effects that highly.
 
Adi8877

Adi8877

Visionary
Joined
Jan 26, 2019
Total posts
995
So the preflop odds:

AA and any pairs: 221 : 1
1010+ : 44.2 : 1
AKs : 331.5 : 1
AKo : 110.5 : 1
AK : 82.9 : 1





February, based on 32.6K hands was like this:



AA 101 68.47%

KK 122 82.70%
QQ 165 111.86%
JJ 119 80.67%
1010 152 103.04%
1010+ 659 86.92%
AKs 102 103.25%
AKo 252 85.41%
AK 354 90.12%



In March, I've played 49.5K hands (the database is huge, and slowing down a bit and I can't use it properly for turbo MTTs, so I want to start a new one, I don't wait for this few days, I will add them to the April one):




AA 208 92.86%

KK 191 85.27%

QQ 210 93.76%

JJ 207 92.42%

1010 203 90.63%

1010+ 1019 90.99%

AKs 145 97.11%

AKo 459 102.46%

AK 604 101.15%





So altogether Feb&March, based on 82.1K hands (these are only tourney hands anyway, I rarely play CG holdem), also added the overall AQ, as that is a good, important starting hand, especially if nothing else comes:



AA 309 83.18%

KK 313 84.25%

QQ 375 100.94%

JJ 326 87.75%

1010 355 95.56%

1010+ 1678 90.34%

AKs 247 99.73%

AKo 711 95.69%

AK 958 96.73%

AQs 231 93.27%

AQo 679 91.39%

AQ 910 91.89%


Maybe, I'll make an excel sheet with graphs how it changes, obviously not much, not fast, at least I can see that.


I was fed up with this pretty much in the last few weeks, as the bankroll was struggling in the same tight range for nearly 2 months. I thought, okay, it is how it is, this is the 'normal' - even nobody says it - so apply and take seriously the 'forget the variance in online poker' phrase. And it works! The last 2 weeks were okay in that way, just attached the allin equity (both BB and Tchips) and the bankroll graph about this 2 months (82.1K hands, 1015 tourneys).... anyway, for me it is insane. Hole Feb, and the first 2 weeks of March the allin equity was steady uptrend, since it is struggling, even falling a bit, the bankroll started to spike up.... I know what things I have changed, but no 'education' real poker and math, stat, variance, theory based stuff out there what mentions things like these... (at least, I never met any) even I see the top 1% on all level have some clue about it, probably not just some.



Still curious about other mtt players' similar phase if they got any.
 

Attachments

  • SC 2021 Feb-March allin equity BB - 0328.jpg
    SC 2021 Feb-March allin equity BB - 0328.jpg
    122.9 KB · Views: 6
  • SC 2021 Feb-March allin equity Tchips - 0328.jpg
    SC 2021 Feb-March allin equity Tchips - 0328.jpg
    146 KB · Views: 7
  • Bankroll Feb-March -0328.jpg
    Bankroll Feb-March -0328.jpg
    115.6 KB · Views: 7
Adi8877

Adi8877

Visionary
Joined
Jan 26, 2019
Total posts
995
As I was blaming, because of the dealt cards, here is something strange what I've just found... (Even the dealt cards don't show much an improvement, at least now around average everything.)
The last 13 QQ, 10 times saw the flop/board, and 7 times an other Q was there!!! I am going to play really carefully with QQs in the next few days... it probably won't last forever...
 

Attachments

  • QQ runs -20210403.jpg
    QQ runs -20210403.jpg
    88.2 KB · Views: 2
Top