Is my thinking flawed?

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ph_il

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So, I below are two situations where I think what I'm doing and my thinking might have some merit, but I'm not 100% sure.

1.
-Blinds: 500/1K/100, 10 min blinds, 9-handed
-Late into tournament, late reg is closed, ~20 players from ITM
-In BB with 10K after posting blinds
-UTG shoves for 12K,
-Folds to MP who reshoves for 15K
-Folds to CO who calls 15K
-Folds to me in BB with Q10s
-There is 44.4K in the pot.

-My (flawed) thinking is that there is a ton of money in the middle, I only have 10BBs left, and I need to make a move soon. Even though Q10s isn't a great hand, this is a perfect opportunity to call and quad up. If that happens, I boost my stack to ~40K, which puts me in a great spot to finish much deeper.

I'm so far off the money, that's meaningless if a bust out here. I think the risk is very much worth the reward at this point and if I fold, when am I going to get another opportunity to get my money in with a chance at a decent stack? If it happens when I'm down to 5-6BBs, doubling up isn't going to be much help. And if I fold here, then say bust out 1 orbit later when I shove for 6BBs, it makes no difference if I finish 20 spots from the money or 15 spots from it.

I think it's best to take that chance of busting out or quad'ing up at this point. Agree or disagree?

2.
-Blinds: 500/1K/100, 10 min blinds, 9-handed
-Late into MTT, late reg closed, 20 away from ITM
-In BB with 8BBs after posting
-4 players limp in before you, SB completes. Limpers' stacks range from 10BBs-30BBs
-In BB with 8-10s
-6.9K in the pot

-My (flawed) thinking is that this is a perfect spot to shove and pick up a lot of dead money. If I can pick it up uncontested, I can increase my stack to almost 15K, which gives me some breathing room. My opponent's haven't shown any strength by just limping in and I feel this is a perfect spot to punish the limpers. Even though 8-10s isn't the greatest of hands, it doesn't do too bad against some hands if I do get called. It's flipping against 22-77 and is has ~40% equity against hands like QJ, KJ, AQ, AK, etc. I'm only really behind high pairs, though I wont expect to see those given the preflop action. Also, given stack sizes, I'm forcing players to make a decision for either most of their chips or almost 25% of it this deep into the game.

Given my low BB stack, I probably wont last much longer and I need to make plays. With 8BBs, I just may have enough FE to pick up the pot, but I'm not hating it if I get called, unless I run into hands like A8 or A10. In situations like these, I feel that it's just as important to take advantage of key spots, even if you don't have a really strong hand.

So, while these 2 situations dont come up often, I've been taking advantage of them when they do when I'm short stacked. I know many times, I've busted out, but-like i said-it's not that big of a deal when I'm so far away from they money. Or even I'm near the money, min-cashing means very little to me. However, in the times that it does work, I know it's propelled me to finish much deeper in MTTs, helped me reach FTs, and win quite a few.

So, is my thinking flawed? Am I just getting my money in bad and getting extremely lucky? Though, luck is needed to win MTTs, right?
 
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Lucothefish

Lucothefish

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Situation 1 really depends on the table and the people to your immediate left / right. If the table is loose and you're not getting any ATC steal spots then you're forced to gamb00l at some point and this isn't a terrible spot to do it, although something like JTs or T9s would have less chance of blocked outs. But if the table is tighter then it's really bad to push here because you should be able to maintain and build without showdown and will generally have much more +ev spots to put your money in.

Situation 2 is a standard atc play as long as your stack is something of a threat to every limper.
 
KingCurtis

KingCurtis

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I agree. Situation 1 depends on how your table has been. If you think you can shove a few times in position to steal the blinds then I say wait a bit longer. However, I don't think it's a horrible gamble either. I've always said that in the MTT world it is stupid to "just cash" so I encourage not being scared. We all know we have to get lucky at some point in a MTT to win or make the win worth it.

Situation number 2, I'm going to shove here. Sometimes people trap the blinds (especially with short stacks) by limping with AA-QQ. But many don't because they risk the blinds seeing a free flop and breaking those big pairs. Also, they might have limped with a small pair or a weak Ace so your cards are likely live compared to their range (depending on how well you know the players). Again, if you are that short this late in the MTT we need to do something to make that run to the FT.
 
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