Suited or unsuited, AK, pre-flop, is a drawing hand with which caution should ever be exercised. As hole cards, as I have noted in other writings before this post, they always cause my personal warning lights to flash. Why? Because these top hole cards, meaning AK o or AK s, usually signal high bets and the potential to win or lose a hand, game or tournament. Sound familiar? So, by reason of my personal training, I always remember to read top hole cards backwards, just to remind myself of their real value. For instance, AK o is just that. It is the highest card (A) with the highest non-ace kicker (K). AK s is primarily the same, except it has a bit more value when looking long term since it might become a flush, flop or post flop, whereas AK o theoretically projected would at best probably end up as a straight, also flop or post flop.
However, it is worth noting, that should nothing develop on the flop, should you play that far, meaning neither a flush nor a straight or anything along the lines of high pairs, then any opponent pair – no matter how small - can crush either AK o or AK s. This is something to remember before initiating an all-in or calling (read paying-off) into one. In other words, from any position, it is worthwhile to keep in mind that neither AK s nor AK o equals so much as a pair. So, my typical question would be: “Why would you risk your entire
bankroll in a situation where you only have high cards?” And, “Does that even make sense from any position?”
AK s hole cards have a 65-67 win percentage and AK o hole cards have a win percentage of 63-64. This means that AK s will win 6,500 to 6,700 times out of every 10,000 hands played, and that AK o will win 6,300 to 6,400 times out of every 10,000. Conversely, AK s as hole cards will lose 33-35% of the time and AK o will lose 36-37%, meaning the former loses 3,300 to 3,500 times out of every 10,000 hands played and the latter loses 3,600 to 3,700 out of every 10,000. So, with probability in mind, a lot of cards may be in play with higher win, and lower loss, percentages. Again, these are mathematical gaming factors worth considering before taking any actions from which there is no return, such as the commitment of your entire stack.
If it is early in a tournament, and if blinds are low, it may seem reasonable to call with AK o or AK s from any position, and to see the flop, especially if at least some EP opponents playing before you have folded. Still, it must be considered, being in EP or MP, LPs have yet to play, and if a re-raise from any LP follows, the situation significantly changes. The point is that these are hole cards with lots of possibilities, especially when someone holding AK o or AK s decides to go all-in. However, in my opinion, going all-in with AK o or AK s while not necessarily mistaken, can be premature. In a situation of positional blindness, many players most likely will fall back upon their past experiences or learning. Huge opponent raises may signal high pairs like AA, KK or QQ rather than other middle pair hole cards such as JJ, TT, 99, 88, 77. Such raises may also mirror one’s own hands with cards such as AK s, AK o, AQ s or AQ o. In other words, the cards in your own hand can be matched or reflected by your opponent or opponents. Knowing this, learning and experience should, and must, influence decisions going forward. Given the foregoing, intuitive players may fold if they interpret an early raise, by any opponent, as meaning any of those possibilities listed above.
Other players may do anything but fold. Why? Generally, although not the best, AK o and AK s are considered good hole cards by many players. But, having these hole cards does not necessarily call for a raise or re-raise pre-flop as some players recommend. If any opponent at the table makes a conservative raise, then only a call is required. If a re-raise from another position follows this conservative raise, then I would seriously consider folding. And, if yet another position plays over the top of a conservative raise and re-raise, then I will most definitely fold because the implication is high pairs like AA, KK or QQ.
So why put your entire hand, game and tournament at risk without even a pair in your hands? Why would you take such a gamble when the whole idea of NLHE is to at least try to eliminate the element of chance (read
gambling or a reliance on luck) through the usage of skill and strategy? Without even so much as a pair, you did not have to open with 7,500 chips when a free card was then still a possibility before the 15,000 chip raise by the small blind. When the 3,000 chip limper came over the top of the small blind and shoved all-in with his entire 350,000 chip stack, that action alone should have alerted you that something was afoot because of the implication of high pairs like AA, KK or QQ. Where even a middle or small pair could end your hand, game or tournament, the only thing you reasonably had left to do was to fold, and by folding, take the loss of the 7,500 chips with which you opened, leaving your stack with 122,500 chips minus whatever the ante was. Most importantly, by taking the loss, you still remained alive with many times the big blind in your stack.
