Statistically significant sample size to move up levels - MTT's and SNG's only

[goaldriversv]

hi, i started a thread here https://www.cardschat.com/forum/poker-goals-challenges-wins-46/help-i-want-do-a-poker-441248/ to help me set up a poker goal.

i'd like to set up a goal similar to https://www.cardschat.com/forum/pok.../1000-sit-go-poker-challenge-possible-383687/ and https://www.cardschat.com/forum/poker-goals-challenges-wins-46/300-100-000-challenge-298489/

from some articles i read, it looks like at least a 2,000 sng/mtt sample size will determine if you're ready to go up a level.

what is a statistically significant sample size to determine whether i am ready to move up a level? as part of writing down a poker goal, i will start at the lowest sng level ($1.50)

an example goal with this information could be as follows:
starting bankroll $600+
play $1.50 level 2,000 times - if positive ROI, then move up
play $3 level 2,000 times, if positive ROI, then move up

any help and advice is appreciated

 

[Luvepoker]

I admit this is an interesting question. I am also not sure I am best to respond. I like you have read about 2000 SNG to see if you are a winning player at the level you are at. I thing that would be helpful in determining your being a winner or not.

For MTT I think this would be wrong way to look at it and I have not seen anything on this that goes by the amount of games played.The first problem is would see is just playing 2000 tournament at a specific level. The problem with MTT tournament is they just take so much time to complete and just finding the same dollar amount of the tournament would also be an issue. I could see it taking years to get to 2000 games. Then there is the size of the tournaments you are playing. If they are 100 to 200 players you would have a nice sample size to look at but if they are 1500+ players it may not be enough of a sample size.

I think for the MTT you should go by the amount of buy ins you have and adjust on the size if the tournament you play. Say you have 100 buy ins and are playing 100-150 player tournament you would probably be safe to move up a level once you have 100 buy ins at the next level you are thinking to move to. If the average amount of players you are against is higher you should adjust it. Say you are playing against and average of 750 players you may want to start with 200 buy ins and move up when you have 200 at the next level. I know there are charts for this somewhere on the internet.

 

[goaldriversv]

I admit this is an interesting question. I am also not sure I am best to respond. I like you have read about 2000 SNG to see if you are a winning player at the level you are at. I thing that would be helpful in determining your being a winner or not.

For MTT I think this would be wrong way to look at it and I have not seen anything on this that goes by the amount of games played.The first problem is would see is just playing 2000 tournament at a specific level. The problem with MTT tournament is they just take so much time to complete and just finding the same dollar amount of the tournament would also be an issue. I could see it taking years to get to 2000 games. Then there is the size of the tournaments you are playing. If they are 100 to 200 players you would have a nice sample size to look at but if they are 1500+ players it may not be enough of a sample size.

I think for the MTT you should go by the amount of buy ins you have and adjust on the size if the tournament you play. Say you have 100 buy ins and are playing 100-150 player tournament you would probably be safe to move up a level once you have 100 buy ins at the next level you are thinking to move to. If the average amount of players you are against is higher you should adjust it. Say you are playing against and average of 750 players you may want to start with 200 buy ins and move up when you have 200 at the next level. I know there are charts for this somewhere on the internet.

really good point about mtt. i just posted a new thread in the poker goals forum and i decided that i'll have 2 goals. 1 goal is to increase bankroll which will include playing mtts and the other goal is to play 2k sngs at one level. thanks for the input!

 

[theANMATOR]

I'm an unconventional rec tourney player - so my suggestions are strictly from my point of view, take them as that, nothing more.

I'm also a pretty NIT with my bankroll, although I play a higher stakes than you do, and my bankroll is less than half what you stated in your other thread.

One last thing to mention - I play 1-2 SnGs per week. I don't really enjoy them much because the structure is too quick for my liking, and they turn into a bingo fest quite fast. Not my favorite.

So with all those out of the way -

I'd play $2 & $3 mtts if I was in your position. I'd also play some of the satellite offers on ACR which could put you into some very lucrative events - if you just min-cashed it'd give you the bankroll to move up - even if you decided not to.
I personally take ONE or TWO shots per week at the next higher level. I play in $1.00 and under events on BetOnline and 1-2 times per week I will play a $2-$3 buy in event. And it has been paying off well for me following this structure.

As for statistics / sample size to move up - I personally think that's for regulars who are grinding cash and/or SnGs constantly. Maybe even regulars (with no job) who I would not consider pro or semi-pro, but those who are GRINDING the SnGs.
Since I don't do that, I can't say - but I think I would not gauge my buyin level on that information anyway.
I'd move up when I felt comfortable playing at the next higher buyin - and I had 100 or more buyins OF the next higher buyin. That would be my main gauge.

If I moved up and lost down to 50buyins - I would move back down - cause that is 100 buyins at the lower level.

The one important element I would pay close attention to here - If I was in your position was to review my winnings/losses at the end of every week, so I could have a short term measurement device to make sure I'm on track. I would not go all haywire if I had a loosing week or anything - but if I had multiple loosing weeks in a row - that might be cause for concern.

Sample sizes, and bb/100 is really only applicable to cash game players.

 

[theANMATOR]

Another example of moving up/down levels

statistically significant sample size to move up levels - mtts and sngs only

Just one more example that might give you some thought on moving up or not.

I've been passively playing on an established Bitcoin only site for a couple months. The site allows ONLY bitcoin (micro bit) deposits and withdrawals.

They have 1 freeroll perday (10 chips) 1 chip = 1 micro bit.
They also run 1-2 freerolls per week for 500gtd chips.

I have won the daily freeroll several times and played with those winnings on the rake free micro 'cash' table - rolling the BR into something like 50 chips.

I recently placed in the top 2 - 3 times in the 500 weekly freeroll.
So with right around 800 chips, I decided to play in the daily 50 chip buyin with a prize pool of 1000gtd.

I've played in that event 5 times in the past 2 weeks and have taken it down 3 times, placed 2nd once and 3rd once.

Now with my bankroll on that site at nearly 3000 chips, I'm going to continue to play in that daily 50 buyin event, but I'm also adding in two more events to play in at the next higher buyin level (100 chips).
I feel like I'm doing VERY well at the current buyin level - and I want to move up to increase my chances to earn more, and increase the competition level.

 

[Poker_Mike]

hi, i started a thread here https://www.cardschat.com/forum/poker-goals-challenges-wins-46/help-i-want-do-a-poker-441248/ to help me set up a poker goal.

i'd like to set up a goal similar to https://www.cardschat.com/forum/pok.../1000-sit-go-poker-challenge-possible-383687/ and https://www.cardschat.com/forum/poker-goals-challenges-wins-46/300-100-000-challenge-298489/

from some articles i read, it looks like at least a 2,000 sng/mtt sample size will determine if you're ready to go up a level.

what is a statistically significant sample size to determine whether i am ready to move up a level? as part of writing down a poker goal, i will start at the lowest sng level ($1.50)

an example goal with this information could be as follows:
starting bankroll $600+
play $1.50 level 2,000 times - if positive ROI, then move up
play $3 level 2,000 times, if positive ROI, then move up

any help and advice is appreciated

My personal opinion, and I hope you find this helpful, is that you should not move up until you have approximately 100 buyins.

It's not about being "good enough" to move up. It's about your bankroll management and staying within your bankroll so that variance doesn't deplete your bankroll and you don't have any money to play anything.

Bankroll management may be the most important thing for any player that wants to ladder up in buyins.

I mean if you have other sources of income and you are ok with making deposits into your account, then bankroll management doesn't really matter and you can just play whatever you want.

Good luck !

 

[goaldriversv]

I'm an unconventional rec tourney player - so my suggestions are strictly from my point of view, take them as that, nothing more.

I'm also a pretty NIT with my bankroll, although I play a higher stakes than you do, and my bankroll is less than half what you stated in your other thread.

One last thing to mention - I play 1-2 SnGs per week. I don't really enjoy them much because the structure is too quick for my liking, and they turn into a bingo fest quite fast. Not my favorite.

So with all those out of the way -

I'd play $2 & $3 mtts if I was in your position. I'd also play some of the satellite offers on ACR which could put you into some very lucrative events - if you just min-cashed it'd give you the bankroll to move up - even if you decided not to.
I personally take ONE or TWO shots per week at the next higher level. I play in $1.00 and under events on BetOnline and 1-2 times per week I will play a $2-$3 buy in event. And it has been paying off well for me following this structure.

As for statistics / sample size to move up - I personally think that's for regulars who are grinding cash and/or SnGs constantly. Maybe even regulars (with no job) who I would not consider pro or semi-pro, but those who are GRINDING the SnGs.
Since I don't do that, I can't say - but I think I would not gauge my buyin level on that information anyway.
I'd move up when I felt comfortable playing at the next higher buyin - and I had 100 or more buyins OF the next higher buyin. That would be my main gauge.

If I moved up and lost down to 50buyins - I would move back down - cause that is 100 buyins at the lower level.

The one important element I would pay close attention to here - If I was in your position was to review my winnings/losses at the end of every week, so I could have a short term measurement device to make sure I'm on track. I would not go all haywire if I had a loosing week or anything - but if I had multiple loosing weeks in a row - that might be cause for concern.

Sample sizes, and bb/100 is really only applicable to cash game players.

very thoughtful. i like the idea of taking shots. i've been keeping track to my 2 poker goals here https://www.cardschat.com/forum/pok...-poker-goals-thread-increase-bankroll-441312/

the challenge of 2,000 sngs at one level is just to see if i'm a winning player. the idea of following a rule as a guideline intrigues me because it almost feels like it gives me confidence to move up with a large enough sample size

 

[goaldriversv]

My personal opinion, and I hope you find this helpful, is that you should not move up until you have approximately 100 buyins.

It's not about being "good enough" to move up. It's about your bankroll management and staying within your bankroll so that variance doesn't deplete your bankroll and you don't have any money to play anything.

Bankroll management may be the most important thing for any player that wants to ladder up in buyins.

I mean if you have other sources of income and you are ok with making deposits into your account, then bankroll management doesn't really matter and you can just play whatever you want.

Good luck !

thanks for the reply. i technically have plenty of bankroll. i've had a really good past couple days and i'll be updating here tomorrow https://www.cardschat.com/forum/pok...-poker-goals-thread-increase-bankroll-441312/

my bankroll is over $700 now so i easily qualify for the 100bi in rule at the levels i stated ($1.50 sng, $3 sng), but as stated in my previous response, i think it's just knowing that my completing 2,000 sngs at one level, that'll be a very good indicator that i'm a wnning player at that level with a large enough sample size. my bankroll management as you can see is very, very conservative.

 

[fundiver199]

Personally I just follow bankroll management rules, when I play SnGs or tournaments, and I dont limit myself to one particular buyin. Right now I mostly play on 888 poker, and if I want to play some SnGs, I jump into whatever 3$ or 5$ regular speed SnGs, that are about to start up. I have only played around 250 so far, but I am actually doing better in the 5$ SnGs than the 3$ SnGs, and on a more subjective note I see no major jump in the average skill level of players between the two limits.

I have also played on Stars, and there its pretty much the same between the 3,5 and 7$ SnGs. Its not like, its a completely different player pool, if you get into a 7$ game. Its still the same mix of fish and regulars, and the difference from SnG to SnG is way larger than the difference between buyins. Sometimes you get in a really juicy one full of fish, and other times its 4 good and 4 bad regs.

 

[Riceman1681]

sngs...1000. Tourneys, meaningless question...but 1000000 hands should give you an idea