So Much Variance

CDNMAN 42

CDNMAN 42

Visionary
Joined
Feb 1, 2017
Total posts
597
Awards
10
I know the experts and wannabes say that Variance is normal and to be expected...Yet when it is ongoing for a long period of time one begins to doubt the validity of the poker software..this AM I played 5 MTTs, one after the other and in every one I got kicked out or severely handicapped by River draws..Prior to the river I had the hands won and I believe my bets were large enough to dissuade draw attempts yet the good old variance showed up each time, here is the final example of todays efforts.:):):)
https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/224UPvz8q
 
Roller

Roller

Legend
Joined
Mar 14, 2009
Total posts
1,850
Awards
3
US
Most will follow draws because of perceived odds and protection betting doesnt seem to be as valid as it once was. Poker is Poker and the Variance is Variance and only can be beaten by playing a Quadzillion hands.
 
terryk

terryk

TheCanuckwithalltheluck
Loyaler
Joined
Dec 14, 2016
Total posts
7,053
Awards
10
I hear Parcheesi is a great game,,, :deal:
 
Zapahlohotrona

Zapahlohotrona

Visionary
Joined
May 4, 2021
Total posts
562
Variance is a scary thing. I even wanted to quit poker after a terrible downswing. All I have to do is endure and play my best game.
 
D

dorynel7

Rock Star
Joined
Apr 12, 2014
Total posts
433
The variance is normal and you should expect to continue to make the best game the results will come. GL
 
magister1

magister1

Rock Star
Joined
Jun 17, 2021
Total posts
222
Variance is what keeps everyone playing... the bad players don't always lose, and heck even some of the good players win more than they should.

MTTs are particularly sick with swings but its a grinders life right.
 
C

Cinhos_2000

Rock Star
Joined
Jun 11, 2020
Total posts
320
Awards
1
I know the experts and wannabes say that Variance is normal and to be expected...Yet when it is ongoing for a long period of time one begins to doubt the validity of the poker software..this AM I played 5 MTTs, one after the other and in every one I got kicked out or severely handicapped by River draws..Prior to the river I had the hands won and I believe my bets were large enough to dissuade draw attempts yet the good old variance showed up each time, here is the final example of todays efforts.:):):)
https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/224UPvz8q
I know this feeling, but I trust the pokersite I use. We tend to remember more the moments we were unlucky than the ones we were lucky, specially if the unlucky moments lead us to bust the tournament, close to a pay jump, etc. Try to play more tables and the same buy in and you will notice a lesser impact of variance on your game.
 
0546474

0546474

Legend
Loyaler
Joined
Apr 4, 2016
Total posts
2,172
Awards
14
I have a question for you about this distribution !!! If your opponent didn't raise and immediately moved all-in, would you call too ???
 
L

Lucky_Shark

Rock Star
Joined
Sep 11, 2020
Total posts
290
Are you serious? You played 5 MTTs that you lost and do you think that poker calculators, solvers, etc. are wrong? LOL. You will probably faint when you learn that people play for six months in the negative with a good game playing 1000+ tournaments a month.
 
Luvepoker

Luvepoker

Lost in the twilight zone
Community Guide
Joined
Feb 21, 2018
Total posts
3,612
Awards
21
US
We tend to remember more the moments we were unlucky than the ones we were lucky, specially if the unlucky moments lead us to bust the tournament, close to a pay jump, etc. .


Dead on. Many people remember the bad beats they receive but never seam to talk about the ones they gave out.
 
garibe

garibe

Rock Star
Joined
Aug 29, 2017
Total posts
135
Awards
1
I understand the frustration. But I disagree with the post being here. Should it go to vents and bad beats instead?

What comment is expected from the post? That you should have won?

5 mtts and that happened? well, I myself dont volume the game enough to complain about just 5. In one day (sat or sun usually) when I play more than 5 mtts a day I sometimes get destroyed by one/two outers on the river in all of them.

Do I tilt? Used to. Used to think the universe is against me. Oh poor me!!!!!

Just jk. :) It happens. And that is what you will hear from everyone.
 
M

mouTAT

Rock Star
Joined
Jul 30, 2021
Total posts
126
So frustrating for sure I just keep in mind that it's a fun game and bad beats are part of it just keep a solid mindset it comes with practice
 
F

fundiver199

Legend
Loyaler
Joined
Jun 3, 2019
Total posts
10,316
Awards
1
As others have said, this is a classic ”bad beats and rants” post, and its difficult to find anything to say, which has not been said a million times already. But I will give it a try anyway. First and foremost we all hate to lose hands like the one, OP shared, but we need to remember, that we should be happy, there are players in the game, who are willing to get their chips in bad.

Yes they can get lucky and win a hand like this and even an entire tournament. But in the long run they can not fight math, and people, who play like this, are massive long term losers. Which is also why, they usually dont continue playing for very long. While we might see the same regulars at the tables for years, there are usually fresh “fish” in each and every session.

Also our memory is not particularly objective. When we win a hand like this, our expectations are just met, and we usually fail to appreciate the fact, we got lucky to turn 75% equity into 100%. However when we turn 75% equity into 0% equity, there is a disconnect between our expectations and reality, and we get upset about it.

We especially get upset, if the opponent played poorly, because then there is an extra feeling of entitlement, that we deserve even more to win, because they played so bad. But again if bad players could never win, they would stop even faster, and the games would be less profitable. So we need to learn to simply laugh a hand like this off, and when we are playing 9-man SnGs, its pretty easy to simply register for the next one.

Finally its true, that variance can last a long time, and its important to understand this. Most of us spend a lot of time to check the cashier or our tracker to see the result of the last session or the last week. But in general this is just meaningless short term noise. After playing 100 9-man SnGs the standard variation on ROI is still 15%, which mean, that 30% of the time our results will be more than 15% above or below the long term average.

So we need to focus on the process rather than the short term results. And when a hand was played flawlessly, as the hand shared in this post, then we simply move on to the next one, and we try to not let the result affect us emotionally. And if we are no longer able to play with a clear and positive mind, then its time to take a break.
 
terryk

terryk

TheCanuckwithalltheluck
Loyaler
Joined
Dec 14, 2016
Total posts
7,053
Awards
10
Perfection! ;) u can't say it any better,,, TY Fun!
 
E

easy play

Enthusiast
Joined
Aug 13, 2021
Total posts
97
Variance adversely affects the win rate when our edge our opponents is insignificant. It's not a zero sum game due to rake. I always emphasize on game selection to build bankroll.
 
Top