Questions about Implied Odds

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ph_il

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So, I know what implied odds are in poker, but I want to make sure I'm applying it correctly during preflop situations vs multiple opponents in MTTs.

1. If I am not mistaken, implied odds are determined by effect stacks. So, against multiple opponents, if I'm getting the implied odds to call from at least one opponent, then a call is correct, right?

Here is an example:

A)
-Hero: posts BB w/ 22 [35 BB stack]
-UTG: Raises to 2BBs to 3BBs [50 BB stack]
-Folds x 3
-MP: Calls 3BBs [11 BB stack]
-CO: Calls 3BBs [13 BB stack]
-Folds x 2

Total Pot: 10.5BBs

Since the odds of hitting a set is 8:1, I'm not getting the pot odds to call preflop at 5.25:1 to call. However, with effect stacks being 35BBs between me and UTG, I can potentially earn more than what the pot odds are giving me at the moment if I hit my set. And as long as I can pick up at least 9+ times the initial raise (since odds of hitting a set is 8:1), then it's a profitable call in the long run, right?

Now, lets say its the same scenario as above, but with a slight change:

B)
-Hero: posts BB w/ 22 [35 BB stack]
-UTG: Raises to 2BBs to 3BBs [22 BB stack]
-Folds x 3
-MP: Calls 3BBs [11 BB stack]
-CO: Calls 3BBs [13 BB stack]
-Folds x 2

Now, the max effective stack is 22 BBs. I'm still not get correct pot odds preflop and now the chance of potentially picking up 9x the initial raise isn't possible since UTG would need at least 27BBs behind. So, is this a fold 100% of the time? Or can calling here be profitable because I can earn 9+ times the initial raise from all 3 of my opponents total if I do hit my set?

Is calling with bad implied odds in multi-way pots profitable in bubble situations if you have a large stack. Lets say in example B, I have 80BBs and the same situation comes up on the FT bubble. Even though I'm not getting correct implied odds, if I do hit, I can potentially bust one the players and if I miss, dropping to 77BBs isn't affecting at all.

What about KO MTTs? Does the potential for picking up a KO bonus affect if a player should call without proper implied odds? Again, if we look at example B, I'm not getting the implied odds to call, but if I do, I can potentially bust 3 players and pick 3x the KO bonus in addition to the extra chips.

I guess my main question is: should I only be making these calls when I'm only getting the proper implied odds to? I feel like if there is a little bit more incentive to call-knocking out short stack and making to FT, picking up KO bonuses, etc, I'll call. Especially if my stack is deep enough to where it's not going to affect me too much. I'm playing a 35BBs very similar to how i play a 32BBs. However, is this poor thinking on my part and in the long run?

Honestly, in both situations, I'm probably not thinking of the implied odds too much. I'm thinking "Hey, I have 22 and I close the action. I have a decent sized stack and if I hit a set, I can pick up a lot of chips. If not, I fold and I have a stack to work with." This might a leak.
 
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Onkorunkus

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I'm not too great with implied odds but here goes: In Example B), you are getting 11:1 on a call and 8:1 on flopping a set. So this call is profitable by pot odds alone. In addition, when you do hit your set, there are 3 more people in the pot and it's pretty likely one of them has also caught a piece of the flop. Also, the two shortstacks will probably shove a lot of flops, having only a potsized bet left. So this call is ultra profitable, if im not getting somethig completely wrong.
In Bounty Tournaments, when there are people with shorter stacks than you already involved in the pot, that certainly adds to your implied odds. In multiway pots, when you don't have to invest too much of your stack, those calls are almost always profitable. Potentially getting to the final table/laddering up or picking up a bounty adds to the implied odds of a call in those spots.
 
TimovieMan

TimovieMan

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I'm not too great with implied odds but here goes: In Example B), you are getting 11:1 on a call and 8:1 on flopping a set. So this call is profitable by pot odds alone.
We're calling 2BB, so it's 5.25:1, not 10.5:1.
In addition, when you do hit your set, there are 3 more people in the pot and it's pretty likely one of them has also caught a piece of the flop. Also, the two shortstacks will probably shove a lot of flops, having only a potsized bet left. So this call is ultra profitable, if im not getting somethig completely wrong.
I agree with this, though.

In Bounty Tournaments, when there are people with shorter stacks than you already involved in the pot, that certainly adds to your implied odds. In multiway pots, when you don't have to invest too much of your stack, those calls are almost always profitable. Potentially getting to the final table/laddering up or picking up a bounty adds to the implied odds of a call in those spots.
And I agree with this.
 
Lucothefish

Lucothefish

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For effective stacks use just yours and the initial raisers, ignore overcallers stack sizes as their range is weaker so it's harder to stack em, anything they put in post flop is a bonus. Calculate your return as effective stacks (implied odds) plus dead money (pot odds), and use 15:1 IP and 20:1 OOP.

Following these guidelines Example A is a call, you're getting 22:1 on a call OOP (can win up to 35bb vs big stack + 9.5bb dead money)

Example B is a fold getting just 16:1 OOP*. If utg had raised 2.5x or less and got two calls, this becomes a call.

*At the table, if you run the ^ numbers in your head and you think it's close, be more inclined to call if the overcallers are loose and/or aggro postflop. Nothing worse than hitting your set and getting 3 folds OTF :mad:. In KO tournaments we can play closer to cev than tev because of the immediate reward and generally looser play, so calling with 10:1 would prob be fine.
 
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Onkorunkus

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We're calling 2BB, so it's 5.25:1, not 10.5:1.
Oops you're right. Somehow thought it was a minraise, but even then it would be 7.5:1. Not sure what I was thinking there.
 
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ph_il

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For effective stacks use just yours and the initial raisers, ignore overcallers stack sizes as their range is weaker so it's harder to stack em, anything they put in post flop is a bonus. Calculate your return as effective stacks (implied odds) plus dead money (pot odds), and use 15:1 IP and 20:1 OOP.

Following these guidelines Example A is a call, you're getting 22:1 on a call OOP (can win up to 35bb vs big stack + 9.5bb dead money)

Example B is a fold getting just 16:1 OOP*. If utg had raised 2.5x or less and got two calls, this becomes a call.

*At the table, if you run the ^ numbers in your head and you think it's close, be more inclined to call if the overcallers are loose and/or aggro postflop. Nothing worse than hitting your set and getting 3 folds OTF :mad:. In KO tournaments we can play closer to cev than tev because of the immediate reward and generally looser play, so calling with 10:1 would prob be fine.
Thanks for the reply. I'll have to look up cev vs tev.
 
Lucothefish

Lucothefish

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Thanks for the reply. I'll have to look up cev vs tev.
When I say tev I just mean other considerations that might affect a cev decision - so basically icm, future betting, chip utility, and are you the best player at the table. I don't know if that's the proper usage of the term.

In this case it's what you already said in your OP - we might pass up a close-but-positive spot in a MTT where losing would cripple our stack, but in a KO we would be willing to take it for the shot at a bounty.
 
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