Questions about Bubble Factor

[nameless1537]

Hi... I’m new here, and I’ve tried searching the forums about this, but haven’t really found anything on this subject, to my surprise. I’ve started playing online poker over 10 years ago and built up a small bankroll using deposit bonuses, winning freerolls and micro MTTs and SNGs. I took a loooooong break and now getting back into it after I’ve started playing on my tablet, allowing me to play anywhere in my house (rather than being tied down to my desktop from back in the day).

I’ve skim read a bunch of poker books, but Harrington was the one I leaned on to build my bankroll. I started reading “Kill Everyone” to learn strategies for a more modern game and coming across the concept or the “bubble factor” and having problems with it conceptually and wondering if anyone can help me break this down. I know you can’t realistically calculate this in game, but I am hoping you can have a way of estimating it on an intuitive level.

As I understand it (and I might be wrong), a higher bubble factor means that you are more sensitive to losing a chip than winning one... so a bubble factor is 3 means that a chip lost is 1.5x more valuable than someone with a bubble factor of 2. Is that a reasonable statement to make? So does that mean that someone with a higher bubble factor needs to play more conservatively, and have higher requirements to calling all-in bets?

My question is... what factors are the determinants to people’s bubble factors increasing / decreasing? Is it primarily a factor of one’s stack size - a higher stack size means a higher bubble factor? And being short stacked means a lower bubble factor? Is the lower bubble factor the equivalent of a “nothing to lose” mentality when making or calling raises?

I just want to make sure I am getting the concept right. Trying to read the book, and this whole section is slowing me down...

Thanks in advance...

 

[KristaK]

hi hi
i new too and i been learn this as well
this applies to MTT (multi table tournies) not really to cash games
it named ICM (Independent Chip Model) where chips change their worth during stages of a tournament
ICM calculation allows you to convert tournament players stacks in chips, into their money equity (as percentage of total or remaining prize pool)
it is complicated math (makes my head explode) but there is excellent software that demonstrates how to calculate this
https://www.icmpoker.com/icmcalculator/

i sure brilliant poker players here explain it better than i able
GL GL !!!

 

[nameless1537]

hi hi
i new too and i been learn this as well
this applies to MTT (multi table tournies) not really to cash games
it named ICM (Independent Chip Model) where chips change their worth during stages of a tournament
ICM calculation allows you to convert tournament players stacks in chips, into their money equity (as percentage of total or remaining prize pool)
it is complicated math (makes my head explode) but there is excellent software that demonstrates how to calculate this
https://www.icmpoker.com/icmcalculator/

i sure brilliant poker players here explain it better than i able
GL GL !!!

Thanks for the response. I understand that the ICM is really only applicable to tournaments — it’s all I play right now... I don’t play cash games. [emoji4]

I noticed that there is some ICM software. I’m trying to understand the theory well enough to apply it in game on the fly, and not just on post-game analysis. I figure that if I know what makes the bubble factor go up or down and what the implications of a higher bubble factor means, then I can use the strategy in game better...

 

[Bozovicdj]

Bubble factor is like a theoretical term that I don't think anyone is really using ingame.

From what I know, BF is a measure of how much it hurts to lose chips and how much it is good for you to win them. Basically the higher the bubble factor, the more it hurts to lose chips during the tournament.

I think that some new softwares have a display where you can see who has what bubble factor. If you are, for example, the chip leader, then you can opt to pressure opponents with biggest BF cause they will be more likely to fold.

Ofc, this is all well and good in theory, but you are sort of reliant on your opponent knowing what ICM pressure is, and what bubble factor is. If someone has big BF but has no idea about it and doesn't understand that calling to see the flop when you have 15bb stack is bad, then it doesn't mean much for you to know about it...

Best way, and probably the only way to use this knowledge is through usage of poker software, that will do the math for you and "tell" you what decision to make.

Personally, I am not a big fan of it, cause it takes all the fun away from poker, but it is definitely a profitable decision to use some software and therefore things like Bubble Factor among others..

 

[crimsonshroud88]

Tbh I was doing fine without ever having to bother what a bubble factor is. After I had a look at it, it is just another angle to look at the ICM.

Try to understand the ICM-related articles, use whatever approach is working for you.

My starting point would be: if I double up early in a tournament, I won't double my chances to win the tournament itself but if I'm out, I'm out. Thus, any chips you win are worth less than chips you lose.

There are different stages of a tournament, different stack sizes. All starts with prize money distribution and a number of players left.
Good luck.

 

[fundiver199]

For micro stake players I dont think, there is any need to overthink this. A lot of it is really just common sense. Say that we are near the money bubble, 176 players left, 168 places pay, the 168`th place gets 4,23$, and to dubble that amount you need to finish in place 27.

A lot of players have around 10 BB stacks left. Do they want to bust right now? Of course not, because if they can just hang on a bit longer, they win 4,23$, and even if they dubble their chips, they might still only win 4,23$ or maybe 5,67$, if they finish in 87`th place. So if you shove on them, they will only call with rather strong hands, if they have any kind of understanding of the ICM concept.

However there is one guy at the table with a huge whale stack of 80BB. He has been involved in a lot of hands, and he is clearly a recreational player, who is on a heater. If you shove your 10 BB in against him, do you think, he will fold? Of course not. He has nothing to fear, and he is there to have fun and gamble it up, so he will call you with almost anything, and therefore you need to be more conservative, when he is sitting behind you.