Hi
How should I play QQ UTG on the bubble short stacked about 5BB if I fold I should make the money?
Full table standard turbo tournament everybody at the my table has over 30BB.
Thanks
There are a few of things to consider:
What is your objective?
Are you looking to win tournaments or min-cash? If this is a higher level buy-in tournament than you're used to playing because you took a shot, or satellited in, then folding an virtually guaranteeing a min-cash can be seen as a major result for you. But if you're playing a regular tournament at your regular buy-in, is min-cashing really that important? One final table is likely equal to 10 or 20 or more min cashes. Sacrificing a min-cash for the possibility of a deep run is almost always worth it in my eyes.
What is the payout structure?
If you're in a HUGE MTT where 100's of players get paid, clinging on to the min cash might be the best option. For example, if 900 players get paid $1 for min-cashing and the next payout jump is 800th for £1.15, then the likelihood is that even if you do double up, you're still only going to win $1. So folding out everything and using your timebank wisely, is probably the best option. If however 18 get paid $1 and the next pay jump is at 15th for $2, then trying to double up and push for the bigger payouts would be my preferred options.
What is the average stack size?
Let's use your example where you have 5bb, so if you win the all in, you'll have around 12bb once you factor in the blinds and antes. Where would this leave you in the tournament? Are you still one of the shortest stacks or is every left in fair short as well and 12bb would put you in the top 10 places? For me, if I have the opportunity to get right back in the mix, I'm going to take this spot every time. In your situation, I would be folding as 12bb would still leave me the shortest stack at the table, so it stands to reason there's plenty of others left in the tournament with a lot more chips.
The outcome doesn't matter.
I know that's not a question, but you do need to remind yourself of this. If you shove QQ with 5bbs it is a profitable play and with no bubble or ICM conditions it's a total no-brainer. However, nothing in poker is a dead cert, so you might run into Aces or Kings, or you might get sucked out on when the BB calls with 96o and hits runner runner for a straight or 2 pair or 4 cards to a flush. It happens. You just need to know that you made the right play and if you had your moment again, you would do exactly the same thing. Poker isn't about winning every hand, it's about putting yourself in the best position you can and let the cards do the rest.