fishfood80
Rock Star
Silver Level
I've just recently watched a poker hand breakdown by Doug Polk on a hand involving Matt Berkey and Nguyen at this years PCA main. Nguyen raises to 2.5 bb's with Q10 spades in under the gun + 1 and Berkey calls in the BB with 99. The flop comes Aspade 9spade Aheart. Nguyen makes it 17,000 into pot of 60,000 after a Berkey check. Berkey then check raises to 60,000 Nguyen calls. The turn is a K heart Berkey check calls 85,000. Effective stacks are now Berkey 381,000 Nguyen 1.3 million. The river comes completing Nguyen's flush with the jack of spades. Berkey checks and Nguyen bets 170,000 into the 350,000 pot. Berkey uses up two time extensions and ultimately folds.
Now in the wrap up Doug says that this fold is terrible and says if your opponents can be value betting a few hands you beat as well as all there bluffs your house is an auto call. Now I do agree with him but want to see if my logic in coming to this conclusion is faulty.
On the flop when we check raise our boat on the flush draw board and just get flatted it makes me assume that my opponent doesnt have a big ace in his range. In situations like this I've more times then not got jammed on when the board is coordinated like this and I flopped the boat when they have the three of a kind. One example is I had pocket 8's the board ran QQ8 two diamonds I check guy bets I check raise he jams with trip Q's etc. etc.. Now when the Kh comes on the turn and you check call I would almost put him on Kx of spades catching his King and by calling arent you setting up for a river jam?? The jack of spades in my eyes would be my dream card completing all flushes and straights. It screams Q 10 or K 10 of spades. So now Berkey has to call 170,000 to win 520,000 after already donating over 175,000. I don't believe Ax would take this line or JJ so realistically only seems like pocket kings or aces would take this line that have you beat maybe AK. I'm at the very least calling this river bet how about you all. Really like to know some opinions on this hand.
Now in the wrap up Doug says that this fold is terrible and says if your opponents can be value betting a few hands you beat as well as all there bluffs your house is an auto call. Now I do agree with him but want to see if my logic in coming to this conclusion is faulty.
On the flop when we check raise our boat on the flush draw board and just get flatted it makes me assume that my opponent doesnt have a big ace in his range. In situations like this I've more times then not got jammed on when the board is coordinated like this and I flopped the boat when they have the three of a kind. One example is I had pocket 8's the board ran QQ8 two diamonds I check guy bets I check raise he jams with trip Q's etc. etc.. Now when the Kh comes on the turn and you check call I would almost put him on Kx of spades catching his King and by calling arent you setting up for a river jam?? The jack of spades in my eyes would be my dream card completing all flushes and straights. It screams Q 10 or K 10 of spades. So now Berkey has to call 170,000 to win 520,000 after already donating over 175,000. I don't believe Ax would take this line or JJ so realistically only seems like pocket kings or aces would take this line that have you beat maybe AK. I'm at the very least calling this river bet how about you all. Really like to know some opinions on this hand.