MTT Push or Fold

[Ragequit]

Hi all,




Another player came to me recently with this question and I answered it as best as I could. It was about two MTT situations which I am pretty confident that I understand, but I want to challenge myself by opening this up to the forum. That way I can check if my advice was sound and improve my own game in the process. So I want you all to peck at my logic and tell me if my maths is correct. If it is not, please explain why in the comments below and give constructive analysis. That way, this thread can become a valuable learning tool.


So, I'll get right to it. His question was about two specific MTT late game situations. In these examples, I am analysing the Big Blind and ignoring the Small Blind (We will assume the Small blind in this case has an FTS (Fold to Steal) of 100%. I will also assume there are only 2 players active in the hand, and that all others fold.


Situation A: (WE Are the Big Blind)

9 Handed
Structure $600/$1200/$150
Total Pot = $3150

We have KJs in the BB​

All fold to the CO ($3000) who decides to push with the 12% of hands

This looks like {22+ ATs+ AJo+ KJ+ QJs JTs}​

Our hand KJs has an equity of 41% against this range.

The effective Stack is ($3000) as the CO is the short stack.​

Total pot size after their shove = $3150 + $3000 = $6150
Amount we must call = $1800 as we have already posted our $1200 Big Blind


EV(Call) = (%Win * $Win) - (%Lose)*($Lose)
EV(Call) = (0.41)*($6150) - (0.59)*(1800)
= $1,459.50



Are my calculations correct here? Do not worry about ICM or MTT strategy considerations or what you would do with this hand... I am only concerned about the bare equities and if I got the EV mathematics right.



Situation B (THEY Are The Big Blind)

9 Handed
Structure $600/$1200/$150
Total Pot = $3150

We have KJs in the CO​

All fold to us ($3000) and we decide to push with KJs

The Big Blind is defending with the 12% of hands
​

{22+ ATs+ AJo+ KJ+ QJs JTs}
​

And folds the other 88% of the time.
​

So P(Fold) = 0.88 and P(Call) = 1 - P(Fold) = 1 - 0.88 = 0.12
​

Our hand KJs has an equity of 41% against this range.

The effective Stack is ($3000) as we are the short stack.
​

Total pot size after our shove will be $3150 + $3000 = $6150
Amount we must risk = $3000.


EV(Push)= P(Fold)*$Win + [P(Call)*(%Win*$Win) - P(Call)*(%Lose*$Lose)]


Plugging it all in:

​

EV(Push)= P(Fold)*$Win + [P(Call)*(%Win*$Win) - P(Call)*(%Lose*$Lose)]
​

EV(Push) = 0.88*($3150) + [0.12*(0.41*$3150) - 0.12*(0.59*$3000)]​

​

​

EV(Push) = $2714.76
​

Have I got this correct? Or should I be including the $3000 that we can win back after the shove is made
​

So this would look like:
​

EV(Push) = 0.88*($3150 + $3000) + [0.12*(0.41*($3150 + $3000)) - 0.12*(0.59*$3000)]​

​

​

EV(Push) ​

= $5502.18



Do we include the shoving chips we get back after the shove?
Please point out ANY mistakes you see in this post.
Thank you Cardschat!


-Ragequit

 

[Ryan Laplante]

Shoving part is slightly off, as our shove also profits on getting the SB and antes. So its 0.41×4950 and 0.59×3000.


The calling range you have is also way off, but rest of mechanics are correct.

 

[Ragequit]

Hi. Thanks very much for responding. Could you please explain how you reached the figure of 4950? And also why you said the calling range was off? Thank you

 

[Ragequit]

If I could please get some more input from other users on this, I would be very grateful. I need to know how calculate the EV of both shoving and calling in both of these spots. Please could someone check my figures. I have searched stacks of forums and books and can't seem to get a definitive answer.