Maintainable roi?

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Flushoff

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I have 463 tracked online tourneys on the NJ legal poker sites with 24k in winnings and an ROI of 81.5%. I've had my ups and downs like every player over the last two years but I'm just wondering if this 81.5% ROI is maintainable over the long run. I'd like to put in 1,200 tourneys a year but that thing they call a job is in my way of "glory". I'm sure my sample size is way too small but I'd appreciate any input...
 
Henry Minute

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I would suggest that a ROI of 80%+ will be difficult to maintain although it's not impossible.

I know a chap that goes to a club I'm a member of once every 3-4 months, plays a maximum of 2 coins on a particular one arm bandit and it's a very rare occasion that he doesn't win, so it is possible.
 
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WiZZiM

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I have 463 tracked online tourneys on the NJ legal poker sites with 24k in winnings and an ROI of 81.5%. I've had my ups and downs like every player over the last two years but I'm just wondering if this 81.5% ROI is maintainable over the long run. I'd like to put in 1,200 tourneys a year but that thing they call a job is in my way of "glory". I'm sure my sample size is way too small but I'd appreciate any input...

400 is a decent sample, but in reality it's not very much. Don't worry too much about it that could go up or down very easily. So just focus on getting your game better and let your Roi sort itself out. just be happy with your results thus far, don't let it get to your head and get lazy, keep working away at it and also dont get down if you go on a bad run, it will happen, and its more likely to happen the more you play..

gl
 
Aceplayer55

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The more often you finish in the money, the more likely you are to be able to sustain your ROI.
 
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Flushoff

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Thanks for the input just going back and forth on the idea of going pro and quitting my job at some point. It's tough now with work because i just can't put the volume I need to get an accurate gauge. What's an appropriate number of tourneys?
 
Lucothefish

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As a guide - when you have enough to pay off your house, then go pro.

I've seen people make the jump too early and it ain't purty
 
PershingSt

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80% ROI seems a bit high to be maintanable over a larger sample . Pre BF when i played mtts for a living , I would play 20-40 a day and average about 30% ROI between pokerstars and FTP . I think 30-50% is a more achievable goal over a larger sample sizes . Keep playing well and shipping those mtts :)
 
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As a guide - when you have enough to pay off your house, then go pro.

I've seen people make the jump too early and it ain't purty

It's a pretty personal thing. But yes, overall most people will fail trying to go pro playing poker. it's a much easier game when you don't have to rely on winning to pay your bills..
 
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WiZZiM

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and the thing is you have won 24k, but that's not even half of a decent paying job. And the thing about poker is that it gets harder the more you play, you will experience the biggest highs and biggest lows possible the more volume you play, with added pressure stated above of relying on it to pay bills.

So just make sure you plan it well and have some backup funds that can get you by if it doesn't work out. But again, it's a personal thing, so trust what you think take on advice and go from there.
 
Lucothefish

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So just make sure you plan it well and have some backup funds that can get you by if it doesn't work out. But again, it's a personal thing, so trust what you think take on advice and go from there.
This is also important - although a lot of pros have claimed to never have a losing year, you still need a backup plan for possibly several losing months in a row.

In a recent AMA on draftkings Max Steinberg had this to say about going pro

Max Steinberg said:
1) I would say don’t just decide to transition into becoming a professional in either. Both poker and DFS are things that can easily be done in your spare time, but if you find a lot of success, then I’d say go for it. I think a lot of people just decide to become a professional because they think for some reason it will change things drastically, but it’s not going to make you that much better.

If your goal is 100/mth you could hit that even with a full time job if you chose the right MTTs (or mtsngs), i.e. smaller fields or faster formats.
 
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Flushoff

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The problem is I work so late during the week that I only have time for 1 or 2 mtt's mon-fri and 2-4 on the weekends. If I were to put in 1,100-1,300 a year I feel that's enough to attain my goal of making 60k per. <--- that is going off my limited results. Good advice all around but it seems I'll never really know because I just can't put in an ample number of tourneys for a true ROI. I thought 450+ would be enough but I guess I'm way off. Wish I could just take three months off and play every night to see where I'm at from a standpoint of fatigue because I'm sure that's factors into it as well.
 
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Flushoff

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Not sure why it cut off the rest of my statement but I was mentioning that I'll probably never know if I can or can't make it because I work too much to get an ample number of mtt's to properly evaluate my game
 
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WiZZiM

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The problem is I work so late during the week that I only have time for 1 or 2 mtt's mon-fri and 2-4 on the weekends. If I were to put in 1,100-1,300 a year I feel that's enough to attain my goal of making 60k per. <--- that is going off my limited results. Good advice all around but it seems I'll never really know because I just can't put in an ample number of tourneys for a true ROI. I thought 450+ would be enough but I guess I'm way off. Wish I could just take three months off and play every night to see where I'm at from a standpoint of fatigue because I'm sure that's factors into it as well.

see that's the thing. 1k tournaments is nothing, you could actually end up making absolutely no money at all during that size sample.

Best thing i can say is go to a tracking site, sharkscope.com and look up the biggest winning MTT players and really have a look at their graphs to see how big the swings can be.

Yes fatigue is a huge factor. But it's not really fatigue as much as it is keeping your game on a very good level over many, many hours played. Setting volume goals to improve productivity is really important and controlling tilt levels becomes way more important also, especially when you hit an inevitable downswing.
 
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WiZZiM

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Also, how did you make your winnings? one big tournament win or multiple wins?
 
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Flushoff

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No, 50 cashes out of 463 with my biggest being $11,500. Have a bunch of 3 k cashes which is first in the nightly's.
 
Hellvor

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No, 50 cashes out of 463 with my biggest being $11,500. Have a bunch of 3 k cashes which is first in the nightly's.

If I'm not mistaken, that's a 9% ITM. So I guess your 81% ROI is purely from the big cashes, without those you've lost money. Expect massive down swings.
 
Lucothefish

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No, 50 cashes out of 463 with my biggest being $11,500. Have a bunch of 3 k cashes which is first in the nightly's.
Well I'd like to think that at the very least, your results strongly suggest that you are a winning player at your stakes. But trying to guess your true ROI is impossible given the sample size. Half your winnings come from a single MTT!

I bet you could go through the hand history from that tournament and change just one river card during one critical all in, and suddenly have a very different outcome.
 
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WiZZiM

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No, 50 cashes out of 463 with my biggest being $11,500. Have a bunch of 3 k cashes which is first in the nightly's.

yeah cool. it all looks good mate. just keep doing what your doing. gl
 
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WiZZiM

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If I'm not mistaken, that's a 9% ITM. So I guess your 81% ROI is purely from the big cashes, without those you've lost money. Expect massive down swings.

dafuq is this comment? yes that is how MTT's work, and his sample size isn't really worth looking into.
 
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Flushoff

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So I guess I should just throw out my 1 big tournament win and recalculate my ROI? 9% is indicative of my style as I don't sit around and look to min cash all over the place. Always aggressive, especially around the bubble so I'm not overly concerned with my itm%
 
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Flushoff

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Luco- I can go through plenty hand histories and change a couple hands for the better or worse. I feel like I should be at a 200% ROI but don't we all... I guess I'll keep plugging away and get to maybe 1,000 mtt's before I make my decision.
 
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rhombus

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If you did want to go pro could also depend on country of residence for Tax purposes if you intend paying any :eek:
 
Lucothefish

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So I guess I should just throw out my 1 big tournament win and recalculate my ROI? 9% is indicative of my style as I don't sit around and look to min cash all over the place. Always aggressive, especially around the bubble so I'm not overly concerned with my itm%
can't throw out your big win unless you also throw out a couple of games where your deep run got smashed by bad luck ;)

Out of interest, is your current $/hr at the tables higher than your wage?
 
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Flushoff

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I'm glad you asked that because the number I have you originally is off as I thought they only kept track of mtt's. It turns out 135 of those were h2h sessions. Another site tracked me for 50 cashes so let's just put the number at about 325 mtt's and 50 cashes...I was basically break even maybe down $75 on all h2h and plus 24k at 325mtts which is definitely not enough but guess it's raises my itm% a few notches. I have a ways to go!
 
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Flushoff

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ROI the same still just didn't play nearly as many mtt's as I thought.
 
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