I did quote and address Phoenix Wright's response, but this my response for the entire situation as well and what I would do in this spot.
4 players already All-In? This might sound nitty, but I'm considering folding AA, the best hand preflop now! Sure we may technically still be favored to win, but the chance SOMEONE will outdraw us is pretty high going into a 4-way pot.
I recommend isolation raising more often so 4 players aren't getting in cheaply. Similarly, if the table has a bunch of calling stations or more recreational players limping...then I'm going to be value betting a lot more and applying aggression all around when I have the "real hands." Betting draws and "bluffs" might be suicidal if they seldom fold.
I still can't see how folding here would be a good play unless in really specific situations:
- Huge ICM spot
- Satellite bubble
Other than that, I just can never see folding AA here being a +ev decision. True, the
odds of you winning are reduced greatly but you still have the best preflop equity to win by the river, even against 4 other players all in. I don't know for sure, but lets say you have 40% equity in this spot. Lets look at a scenario and your
expected value.
- pot with blinds + antes = 2.4 bbs
- 4 players all in * 25 bbs = 127.4 bb pot
- you have to call 25 bbs
- EV = [$127.4 bbs * .40] - [25 bbs * .60]
- EV = [~51 bbs] - [15 bbs]
- EV = +36 bbs
That's huge and there is no reason why you should be giving up that much value with a hand as strong as AA, even if your odds of winning are greatly reduced. I know it's an extreme example, but it's, imo, a clear call unless in very specific situations.
On top of that, you have to look at how winning in this spot will increase your chances of running deeper in to the mtt. I guess the way I look at it isn't: 'what are the odds I lose/win with aces here', but more of 'how much do i improve my chances of winning the mtt if i call here?'.
If I fold, my chances do not improve or reduce, I'm still in the same position. It's neutral. If I call, I lose 60% of the time and bust out. I win 40% of the time and 5x my stack. Where does that put me in relation to the remaining players. Well, if it puts me in say 1st/27 players remaining, 9 make final table, then yeah the 2/5x i do win will outweigh 3/5x I bust out and lose because of how much value I'm earning.
I don't think anyone could ever know how they would do for sure if they fold but, again, it doesn't increase/decrease my chances. It's no different than being dealt 27 and folding in that spot. It's not impossible for me to fold aces and still make the final table but it's going to be a lot harder and there is no guarantee. Whereas, if I call, 2/5x I win and have a near guarantee run to the final table. I say 'near guarantee' because things can happen, but my chances are way more better to make it than if I'd folded. I'd rather go for a 'near guarantee' 40% of the time than unsure 100% of the time.
And even I'm nowhere near the final table, having a bigger stack still has it's advantages over a small stack. So, while it might be too far for a final table run, I can do a lot more with 125 bbs than 25 bbs and that edge is just going to improve my chances of doing well over all.
Again, this is all an extreme examples but hopefully you get my point. With all this said, I wouldn't knock you for wanting to fold and play it safe. Is it wrong to call? Is it wrong to fold? I don't know, I think it just depends you're comfortable with in this situation.