Late stage blues

Brentsn

Brentsn

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Oct 10, 2020
Total posts
103
Chips
0
Again really? Why is it that every time I get late stage AA I lose? I know I’m not going to win every time and am ok with that. But come on, on the button with AA and four go all in before I act. I’m supposed to win some times right? It’s Lucy and the football and I’m tired of being Charlie Brown.
 
Sivraj

Sivraj

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 22, 2021
Total posts
343
Chips
4
That's poker for ya never ever get too excited with a monster hand until after play. AA has been proven over and over that they don't mean a damn thing post-flop. I've cracked my opponents aces and I've had mine cracked. Always expect the unexpected and always remain humble.
 
Rost

Rost

Visionary
Platinum Level
Joined
Aug 26, 2021
Total posts
967
Awards
1
UA
Chips
188
You are exaggerating, and it shows your impatience. You either just don't remember the times when you won with aces, or you take such victories for granted. In any case, do not be upset, be patient and in the long run you will have every chance of a good reward. Good luck. :)
 
Luvepoker

Luvepoker

Lost in the twilight zone
Community Guide
Joined
Feb 21, 2018
Total posts
5,294
Awards
23
US
Chips
436
Again really? Why is it that every time I get late stage AA I lose? I know I’m not going to win every time and am ok with that. But come on, on the button with AA and four go all in before I act. I’m supposed to win some times right? It’s Lucy and the football and I’m tired of being Charlie Brown.

Have you ever asked yourself if you might have helped it lose? I don't know your story or what are the circumstances of the loss but I knew someone who complained as you did. The problem was he would limp in with aces and bet the flop after 2, 3 or more players were in the hand. Are you shoving them so late but are so short and people call you a lot? If the blind are 500/1000 and i am in the BB and you jam 2000 or less I would call every time. Just saying maybe look and see if there are other things contributing to the loss. I am not blaming you but you just may not be looking at it this way. Best of luck mate.
 
smerald

smerald

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Jul 24, 2007
Total posts
430
Awards
1
Chips
37
That is tough. Sorry to hear it.

The best hand will win more often than not. We just get hung up on the not occasionally. Keep making the right plays and you will inevitably be rewarded!
 
toots babos

toots babos

ex-tornament grinder
Bronze Level
Joined
Oct 19, 2014
Total posts
3,869
Awards
16
Chips
109
Try and get your chip stack to not feel losing with AA at this stage ;)
 
pavel1111111

pavel1111111

Legend
Platinum Level
Joined
Dec 22, 2014
Total posts
3,173
Awards
34
RO
Chips
644
Well, that's the beauty of poker, in addition do not forget the most important factor, necessary to win a poker tournament - luck factor , if you do not have it you can't win :) , with skills you can enter the prizes and reach the last 2 tables , maybe :)
 
Jdawglet

Jdawglet

Visionary
Platinum Level
Joined
Oct 25, 2021
Total posts
957
Awards
6
CA
Chips
447
When there are already 4 people all in…the odd of AA holding is not that good. If I’m calling that many all ins I’m expecting to lose and hoping to win.
 
najisami

najisami

Legend
Loyaler
Joined
Aug 11, 2014
Total posts
3,265
Awards
6
MA
Chips
575
Again really? Why is it that every time I get late stage AA I lose? I know I’m not going to win every time and am ok with that. But come on, on the button with AA and four go all in before I act. I’m supposed to win some times right? It’s Lucy and the football and I’m tired of being Charlie Brown.

Hey Brentsn,
We all know that even though AA is the best starting hand, it is still only one pair and it could lose to any two cards anytime, but you are ok with that. Now, what I am not ok with is shoving with AA after 4 all ins. Against one hand, you shove and pray, against two hands your equity has already drastically decreased, against 3 hands or more, throw your bullets in the muck and wait for a better spot. And in this case, you were fortunate enough by having to act last...
What we call a mistake only becomes one if it's not corrected. Good luck man...
 
D

dregan

Legend
Platinum Level
Joined
Nov 12, 2018
Total posts
1,254
Awards
2
Chips
97
I don't know how you play with pocket aces. Most of the time I win with AA. You can't call with aces or make a small raise if you are the first.
 
kasinogyn

kasinogyn

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Oct 23, 2021
Total posts
144
Chips
1
pocket aces is just a good hand. does not give you 100% victory. be more cautious.
 
NightStalker

NightStalker

Legend
Platinum Level
Joined
May 27, 2020
Total posts
1,088
Awards
5
BR
Chips
119
That's why it's poker.
Bad beats always happens when you aren't expecting.
 
Phoenix Wright

Phoenix Wright

Legend
Loyaler
Joined
Feb 18, 2020
Total posts
2,901
Awards
4
Chips
394
4 players already All-In? This might sound nitty, but I'm considering folding AA, the best hand preflop now! Sure we may technically still be favored to win, but the chance SOMEONE will outdraw us is pretty high going into a 4-way pot.

I recommend isolation raising more often so 4 players aren't getting in cheaply. Similarly, if the table has a bunch of calling stations or more recreational players limping...then I'm going to be value betting a lot more and applying aggression all around when I have the "real hands." Betting draws and "bluffs" might be suicidal if they seldom fold.
 
Zapahlohotrona

Zapahlohotrona

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
May 4, 2021
Total posts
562
Chips
0
At low limits no one folds anything, everyone limps, no one cares about raises. So the variance is huge. With hands like AA, our goal is to avoid multi-pot. But against four all-ins, AA is not so good.
 
ADRI7HO

ADRI7HO

On the road...
Loyaler
Joined
May 6, 2020
Total posts
6,963
Awards
9
Chips
320
With Aces, no matter how good a hand is in poker, it's worth playing against fewer people. You have to raise to reduce, the number of opponents to possibly one or two players by raising preflop or raising back to really get the strength of pair A, A.
But how a pair A, A performs also depends on the size of the bet because a lower bet has more weak players and makes it easier to enter anything.
But even if there are multiple opponents all-in, pair A, A is the card I am happy to use in any hand at any time.
And yes, there will be times when you lose, but pair A, A is still the most profitable hand in the deck, whatever the situation.
Good luck.
 
Banjois

Banjois

Visionary
Bronze Level
Joined
Jun 15, 2016
Total posts
509
Awards
2
Chips
17
With four all-ins ahead of you, it seems pretty likely that the other two aces are already taken. So making a set is basically out. Now there are all kinds of combinations out there to bust your pre-flop nuts. It's a hell of a thing to do, but folding them here, unless you've got a significant chip advantage, is probably the right thing to do.
 
47Belarus

47Belarus

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 27, 2021
Total posts
103
Chips
0
Last week I lost with AA, KK. At the moment of the game it’s devastating, but afterwards I try to calm down and realize it’s just a game (unless you’re making money in poker)
 
P

ph_il

...
Silver Level
Joined
Feb 5, 2005
Total posts
10,128
Awards
1
Chips
25
I did quote and address Phoenix Wright's response, but this my response for the entire situation as well and what I would do in this spot.
4 players already All-In? This might sound nitty, but I'm considering folding AA, the best hand preflop now! Sure we may technically still be favored to win, but the chance SOMEONE will outdraw us is pretty high going into a 4-way pot.
I recommend isolation raising more often so 4 players aren't getting in cheaply. Similarly, if the table has a bunch of calling stations or more recreational players limping...then I'm going to be value betting a lot more and applying aggression all around when I have the "real hands." Betting draws and "bluffs" might be suicidal if they seldom fold.
I still can't see how folding here would be a good play unless in really specific situations:
  • Huge ICM spot
  • Satellite bubble
Other than that, I just can never see folding AA here being a +ev decision. True, the odds of you winning are reduced greatly but you still have the best preflop equity to win by the river, even against 4 other players all in. I don't know for sure, but lets say you have 40% equity in this spot. Lets look at a scenario and your expected value.
  • pot with blinds + antes = 2.4 bbs
  • 4 players all in * 25 bbs = 127.4 bb pot
  • you have to call 25 bbs
  • EV = [$127.4 bbs * .40] - [25 bbs * .60]
  • EV = [~51 bbs] - [15 bbs]
  • EV = +36 bbs
That's huge and there is no reason why you should be giving up that much value with a hand as strong as AA, even if your odds of winning are greatly reduced. I know it's an extreme example, but it's, imo, a clear call unless in very specific situations.

On top of that, you have to look at how winning in this spot will increase your chances of running deeper in to the mtt. I guess the way I look at it isn't: 'what are the odds I lose/win with aces here', but more of 'how much do i improve my chances of winning the mtt if i call here?'.

If I fold, my chances do not improve or reduce, I'm still in the same position. It's neutral. If I call, I lose 60% of the time and bust out. I win 40% of the time and 5x my stack. Where does that put me in relation to the remaining players. Well, if it puts me in say 1st/27 players remaining, 9 make final table, then yeah the 2/5x i do win will outweigh 3/5x I bust out and lose because of how much value I'm earning.

I don't think anyone could ever know how they would do for sure if they fold but, again, it doesn't increase/decrease my chances. It's no different than being dealt 27 and folding in that spot. It's not impossible for me to fold aces and still make the final table but it's going to be a lot harder and there is no guarantee. Whereas, if I call, 2/5x I win and have a near guarantee run to the final table. I say 'near guarantee' because things can happen, but my chances are way more better to make it than if I'd folded. I'd rather go for a 'near guarantee' 40% of the time than unsure 100% of the time.

And even I'm nowhere near the final table, having a bigger stack still has it's advantages over a small stack. So, while it might be too far for a final table run, I can do a lot more with 125 bbs than 25 bbs and that edge is just going to improve my chances of doing well over all.

Again, this is all an extreme examples but hopefully you get my point. With all this said, I wouldn't knock you for wanting to fold and play it safe. Is it wrong to call? Is it wrong to fold? I don't know, I think it just depends you're comfortable with in this situation.
 
Last edited:
P

ph_il

...
Silver Level
Joined
Feb 5, 2005
Total posts
10,128
Awards
1
Chips
25
With four all-ins ahead of you, it seems pretty likely that the other two aces are already taken. So making a set is basically out. Now there are all kinds of combinations out there to bust your pre-flop nuts. It's a hell of a thing to do, but folding them here, unless you've got a significant chip advantage, is probably the right thing to do.
You don't need to hit a set with AA to win, though.
 
C

cornedbeef

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Jul 26, 2015
Total posts
70
Chips
0
it's not just you pale people go all in with 5 3/ 2 6 i call with AA and lose 99% of the time
 
Phoenix Wright

Phoenix Wright

Legend
Loyaler
Joined
Feb 18, 2020
Total posts
2,901
Awards
4
Chips
394
I did quote and address Phoenix Wright's response, but this my response for the entire situation as well and what I would do in this spot.I still can't see how folding here would be a good play unless in really specific situations:
  • Huge ICM spot
  • Satellite bubble
Other than that, I just can never see folding AA here being a +ev decision. True, the odds of you winning are reduced greatly but you still have the best preflop equity to win by the river, even against 4 other players all in....

Again, this is all an extreme examples but hopefully you get my point. With all this said, I wouldn't knock you for wanting to fold and play it safe. Is it wrong to call? Is it wrong to fold? I don't know, I think it just depends you're comfortable with in this situation.

I agree and probably I'm playing the AA here too, but I simply mentioned I'd even consider folding. The implication is that I can find other spots to chip up with less risk. In a cash game, I'm going to ram and jam All-In with AA here all day because it is clearly +EV and if we bust then we can just reload...but in an MTT situation, I feel confident that I can outplay the opponent(s) in other situations - rather than being up to "chance" in a 4-way pot (even if we do have 40-50% equity preflop here etc.)

I don't want to come across as arrogant (I'd like to believe I'm quite the opposite of that if anything), but if the table is commonly getting to 4-way pots, then I suspect this is a freeroll or micro-stakes game which I can beat while folding AA here. If I somehow got this 4-way pot situation with high stakes pros, then of course I'd be inclined to take the shot with AA and "chance" it because my skill edge is likely the lowest of the players and therefore I should be incentivized into playing slight +EV plays and going for "flips."
 
theANMATOR

theANMATOR

Legend
Bronze Level
Joined
Jan 29, 2019
Total posts
1,250
Awards
1
Chips
0
Well, that's the beauty of poker, in addition do not forget the most important factor, necessary to win a poker tournament - luck factor , if you do not have it you can't win :) , with skills you can enter the prizes and reach the last 2 tables , maybe :)

You misspelled HORROR above. I corrected it for you. :D:D;)
 
pavel1111111

pavel1111111

Legend
Platinum Level
Joined
Dec 22, 2014
Total posts
3,173
Awards
34
RO
Chips
644
You misspelled HORROR above. I corrected it for you. :D:D;)




don't be so bad :), I know what you mean, but in the end it's just a game, we don't have to cling to any loss or gain, at the end of the day we have to get back on our feet and real life :)
 
Top