This is a discussion on K6s 2pair vs xr river within the online poker forums, in the Tournament Poker section; PokerStars - 50/100 Ante 10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hero (BTN): 96.61 BB
SB: 106.26 BB (VPIP: 22.22, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00,
I know 32 hands isn't much of a sample but it's all we have to go with. I would expect this guy to be raising before the river with all of his sets and KJ, K7. What if we check behind on the river? He would lose tons of value. He should be 3 betting pre with KK, JJ and should never be floating 44 on this flop. It's still possible he defended his BB with KJ, K7, 77 and opted not to raise turn and somehow checked river knowing we would bet (have we been really aggro lately?). Even so, we are blocking the K so he has 6 combos of KJ and 6 combos of K7 and 3 combos of 77 (15 total). Would he play a missed straight draw or missed flush draw the same way? Would he turn a smaller K into a bluff hoping he can sell a back door straight? I think we can find enough bluff combos to call here given the size of the pot and the remaining amount we have to call. There are 16 combos of QT alone. Add in a few missed flush draws and I think this is a call. We are risking 40.53 BB to win 139.53 BB. He only needs to be bluffing about 29% of the time to make this a profitable call. With the way the hand played with no raises OOP on a very wet board (flush and straight draws) and a check on the river I think he earned our call here. If he has it, nice hand. We can make a note for the future.
I would expect this guy to be raising before the river with all of his sets and KJ, K7. With the way the hand played with no raises OOP on a very wet board (flush and straight draws) and a check on the river I think he earned our call here.
I totally agree, his play makes no sense.
Thank you for the detailed analysis!