Is This Just Variance?

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ssbn743

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So I’m in my normal Saturday $210 live deep stack hold ‘em tournament at my local casino. There were 130 entries and about 9 hours later we were down to the final 14, with 13 getting paid.

It had been one of those tournaments were I had to claw and scratch for each and every chip that I had and that wasn’t very many. The whole day I was hovering between 7 -9M. The blinds have been getting really high and I have shoved several times with 3-4M stacks, most of the time just winning the blinds. I did shove from UTG with A2 off one time and got called by the BB’s 55; I flopped the wheel and he flopped a set, the turn and river were a 2 and an A, chop/chop, and that pretty much sums up how may day had been going – not quite bad enough to lose, but not quite good enough to win either.

Blinds are 6K and 12K with a 1K ante, my stack is about 120K and there are 7 players at my table giving me an effective M value of 4.8. I’m in the SB, the UTG player (a 70+ year old player that I know well and play all the time) raises from UTG to 30K with his stack at about 250K.

It’s folded around to me in the SB and before I look at my cards, he says “Remember I raised from UTG.” I was polite and said “OK, Lou, I’ll keep that in mind” but what I was really thinking was “Thanks for telling me you don’t have shit.” I find AQ off and put a chip on my cards while I think it over. Then Lou says, “I’ll go to the dance floor with you.” I said, “Well Lou, I don’t know what you’ve got but I’ve got to take this one" and moved my chips all-in. The BB folds and Lou actually pauses for a few seconds before reluctantly calling – I know I’m way ahead by now!

I flip the AQ and he shows As 2s, the flop hits his deuce and gives him two spades, no queen came for me and he got the 5th spade on the river anyway. So I got the honor of being the bubble, despite damn near knowing I was way ahead and in a good spot. What possessed him to play this Ace rag like this I don’t know but I’ll bet it was because “it was suited.”

What do I do here? Fold, pre? I don’t see how? So that leaves the next question, was this just variance displaying its ugly self at the worst possible time?
 
vinylspiros

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it was a bad beat at a very bad time. if you were 13th out of the 13 players left ,it was a good call.if there were shorter stacks,its debatable. but a good call in general with 10BB left.
 
JohnBoyWWFC

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You're asking "Should I fold when I think I'm well ahead of my opponents range". Think this through and you probably won't have to ask such a question any more.
 
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doomasiggy

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You're asking "Should I fold when I think I'm well ahead of my opponents range". Think this through and you probably won't have to ask such a question any more.

lol.
 
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totally unlucky at the worst time possible... hate when this happens. why not just flat and reevaluate on the flop? you knew if you hit a Q it was good... so why put all the chips at risk on the bubble like that.... i mean i understand you were ahead... but had you flatted and seen the flop you coulda just let it go when you didnt hit anything and not had to put yourself at risk on the bubble. I have experienced this before myself a number of times and came to the conclusion that I should have gotten paid before I put myself at risk of elimination. I know we all play to win, but you gotta make the money before you can have victory in sight...

p.s. A2 is my nemesis hand... seems like every time i shove on AK or AQ and villian has A2 suited or not... the 2 always seems to show up and take my ass out... so annoying...
 
aa88wildbill

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Well hindsight is 2020, we can all say you should a folded the hand, because we know what's gonna happen. I think you play the hand just fine. I would've done the same thing.
 
bz54321

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You're asking "Should I fold when I think I'm well ahead of my opponents range". Think this through and you probably won't have to ask such a question any more.

Not so I think this all the time. People get lucky all the time. The real question you should ask is did you need the chips. You had nothing in and he came out strong and just flat out told you he would flip for it. So you gambled and lost. From the sound of it you knew he was not going to fold........

Not saying I would have played it differently just saying I would be asking my self "Should I fold when I think I'm well ahead of my opponents range" also in your shoes.
 
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so you say you know this player quite well , whats your read on him. Is he usally really loose ? most decent players arent opening A2 UTG , and calling off half of their stack . And if hes always this loose than its a no brained to jam this . on the other hand if the player is decent you can excpect him to have a range such as 88+, AJ+ which gives u a sligtly EV- jam
 
youregoodmate

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Easy ship, unlucky.
 
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ssbn743

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I realize this is kind of meaningless discussion – the object of the game is to get it in when you’re ahead and that’s really all that you can control. Even though I knew I was good it felt like I was going to lose; I even said “Well Lou I hate to be the bubble boy but I’ve got to take this one!” I guess that was the real question – do you fold by feel?

totally unlucky at the worst time possible... hate when this happens. why not just flat and reevaluate on the flop? you knew if you hit a Q it was good... so why put all the chips at risk on the bubble like that.... i mean i understand you were ahead... but had you flatted and seen the flop you coulda just let it go when you didnt hit anything and not had to put yourself at risk on the bubble. I have experienced this before myself a number of times and came to the conclusion that I should have gotten paid before I put myself at risk of elimination. I know we all play to win, but you gotta make the money before you can have victory in sight...

p.s. A2 is my nemesis hand... seems like every time i shove on AK or AQ and villian has A2 suited or not... the 2 always seems to show up and take my ass out... so annoying...

I do see what you’re saying but you must consider my stack and that fact that I’m playing to win- not get 13th place. I only have roughly 5M and am one of the short stacks – I’m not sure if I was the short stack but I was certainly close; I can’t see a flop and get away from it – I just can’t!

Now A Q is a great hand short stacked/shorthanded and I was probably going to get it in regardless. But I immediately have to consider the UTG raise whose range should be largely ahead of A Q. We all know in poker most things are opposite, so when you’re opponent tells you “remember I raised form UTG” we know that he doesn’t have anything. He’s trying to earn your fold by tricking you into believing he’s stronger than he is. So on top of the fact that I have a great short stacked/shorthanded hand against a single opponent, I know I’m ahead, and I’m also reasonably sure he will call (although he told me he would call which usually means he won’t) and I will double up better than 70% of the time or win a nice pot when he folds; that puts the implied pot odds through the roof – good things happen and my short stack gets larger probably near 90% of the time.

But it felt wrong, it felt like I was going to lose, and I did – so I don’t know; fold pre? Or just take the +EV and call it a day even though it was on the bubble? That was my question the first time, probably could have done better in my OP!
 
MediaBLITZ

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Standard shove. He was just trying to collect blinds with his A and got caught and pretty much felt he had to call, hoping you had KQ, or KJ or similiar.
 
Beanfacekilla

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I think the OP made a good play. A-Q off only loses to A-2 suited roughly 28% of the time. This is why MTTs are tough. Variance and luck are a factor.

OP got in in good pre, just unlucky.
 
bz54321

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If you felt like you were going to lose then you probably should have folded.

The best advice I have ever received from Stu Unger is that you have to trust your instincts. If you cant trust your instincts than you should not be gambling.

It is hard I have bubbled more times than I like to think about........
 
JohnBoyWWFC

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I think if you start folding winning hands because you "have a feeling" then that's just very bad.
 
MediaBLITZ

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Take a moment and figure out what Stu Unger's instincts are based on - if you have that same skill se,t then by all means, trust your instincts - if not, then do what's smart.
 
bz54321

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His instincts are no different than everyone else instincts....

"Any behavior is instinctive if it is performed without being based upon prior experience (that is, in the absence of learning), and is therefore an expression of innate biological factors."

So yes do whats smart and when your instincts kick in and you are on the bubble against a guy who says "Ya lets gamble" maybe listen to them. Or don't whatever.......
 
MediaBLITZ

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His instincts are no different than everyone else instincts....
WOW - talk about being delusional and taking something out of context.
Poker instincts (honed) are a far cry from animal instincts (inherited).
But it is most impressive that your instincts at the table are at a level with Stu Unger - I wonder who else in here would make that claim - I cannot.
 
bz54321

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Your instincts are on the same level as Stus. You just don't trust your instincts. I don't trust myn either. Stu did trust his.....
 
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Stu Unger was the worlds one and only true poker player…he had much more going for him than simple instincts – he was so unbelievably good, some say he must have made a pact with Satan!
 
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ssbn743

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I think if you start folding winning hands because you "have a feeling" then that's just very bad.

I absolutely agree! From everything I have learned over the years “feelings” have a way of being incorrect. I’ve seen people call thousands of dollar bets pre-flop because “hearts have been coming out” and others fold AK because “he’s been beating me all day”.

However, on the other hand, if it feels wrong than it probably is. That’s exactly what happened here and I forced myself to push them in because I knew I had the better hand – frankly I would have folded if I didn’t know what I know – so there’s the question; do I know too much? That’s hardly ever been the case! Is the game simpler than all the +EV talk?

It’s interesting because it’s like a lot of things in the world; if I had folded, I would have never known one way or the other. I think I lean towards the +EV side of this question just based on that fact alone – but there are some players that may disagree; Jennifer Harman is one I can think of the top of my head. I’ve read several articles with her opinions that ultimately support playing by “feel” – in such a case I guess it just matters how accurate your “feel” is.
 
bz54321

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Stu Unger was the worlds one and only true poker player…he had much more going for him than simple instincts – he was so unbelievably good, some say he must have made a pact with Satan!

I agree. Really would have enjoyed playing with him even if it meant losing all my money.

I have also read comments of people who knew him were they say he some times was the best player ever and some times was the worst.

So often my instincts contradict what my brain is telling me how to choose. Wish I knew.
 
Beanfacekilla

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Since gut feelings have come up in this thread, I have something to add.

I believe gut feelings come from experience. However, an inexperienced player will get them also, but they will be frequently wrong for an inexperienced player.

That being said, my gut is usually pretty accurate. It is usually accurate when I'm beat. I get away from some crazy situations due to my gut.

I had a set of 6's vs. a set of kings a few days ago. I just felt the dude might have had a set too. It didn't even cost me that many chips. Even other people at the table said things like "I would have lost all my money if I were you". The guy with the kings said he would have went broke for sure.

I think the gut instinct comes from experience. But I don't think that only poker legends have it. I trust my gut.
 
bz54321

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Since gut feelings have come up in this thread, I have something to add.

I believe gut feelings come from experience. However, an inexperienced player will get them also, but they will be frequently wrong for an inexperienced player.

That being said, my gut is usually pretty accurate. It is usually accurate when I'm beat. I get away from some crazy situations due to my gut.

I had a set of 6's vs. a set of kings a few days ago. I just felt the dude might have had a set too. It didn't even cost me that many chips. Even other people at the table said things like "I would have lost all my money if I were you". The guy with the kings said he would have went broke for sure.

I think the gut instinct comes from experience. But I don't think that only poker legends have it. I trust my gut.

This is very interesting and has got me really thinking about gut feeling\instincts. And from what I can find a gut feeling or instinct is generated from data you subconsciously perceive during the event. Were playing smart would be using conscious data you have gained and are taking an effort to analyze.

So a good example would be if you were on a date and subconsciously noticed a white ring around the ring finger were a ring used to be. Your gut is telling you to get away from the situation but you don't know why. Its because you have a gut feeling that that person is married. However if you noticed the white ring on the finger and analyzed what it means than you are using reasoning instead of intuition.

I have changed my mind and agree that intuition comes from past experience.

After reaching this conclusion I am looking at Stus advice in a new light. I now think that in order to trust your gut you would have to have a lot of experience. But more importantly you would need to have gathered the experiences in the light of truth. If you analyze your experiences correctly and find the truth of what really happened then your gut feelings should be accurate. However if you analyze your experiences incorrectly then the subconscious data will be misinterpreted and your gut feelings will be wrong.

Thanks for making me re-analyze this......
 
JohnBoyWWFC

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I think this is confirmation bias. There's been times when I've said damn I bet he has AA when I has KK and then he does and I go damn I knew I shoulda folded this one time when I know he has it, but I've done that before and he has QQ or AK or some weird hand that he should never have in that spot and I just rake in the chips and forget it. I think people are all too prone to remember when they get in rubbish situations, like the OP but forget when their AQ gets in v A2 and they just win like they think they should.
 
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Gut instincts are irrelevant at poker imo because we let our hand effect our decisions aswell as our emotions effect each decision no matter how much you think your decision relies on your gut.

What I mean is; if you gut tells you someone has AA because they min 4bet for the first time in forever, you still won't fold KK.

However if your gut tells you someone has AA because someone min 4bets for the first time and you hold 22, you will fold.

Yet both situations are exactly the same yet we choose to go against one of our gut decisions based on your own hand strength & how emotionally effected we are during the game even when you still know your beat.

If we are running really bad etc won't trust our gut instincts yet if we're running good, we will. However, even if we are running good running good and a nit 3bets us pre; our gut tells us he has us beat, but because we're running good we feel good to get it in.

True gut instincts can't be used fully for poker.


EDIT: My post actually doesn't make much sense, but I know what I mean lol.
 
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