I think, the player with J9 got outplayed quite a bit in this hand. It reminds me of a famous hand, where Tony G got coolered by Vanessa Rousso. The hand is blind vs. blind, and after opening 65o from SB Tony is egging Vanessa to raise saying "if you raise it up, you build a big pot, and then you can get bluffed out of a big pot later".
And in my opinion this is exactly, what happened here. Rather than simply leading the turn, after the flop went check-check, BB decided to go for some fancy check-raise with his small boat. On the river he obviously had to go for value again, but when he then got jammed on for his tournament life, he went "of f..... this is not, what I was looking for", and then he bailed out.
If the fold was good from a GTO point of view depends on, how BB construct his turn check-raising range. But to me it seem reasonable to assume, it also contains 99 and KT for value as well as some bluffs, and in that case J9 is way to high in his range to bet-fold on the river. Bet-folding J9 basically mean, he only gets to showdown with 1 combos of the royal flush, 3 combos of QJ and maybe 3 combos of AJ, if these also played for a check-raise on the turn.
From a GTO perspective *cough
I make great folds but when I do I'm right not scared
The only way I could do that is if I put my opponent on QQ or AA
which is IMPOSSIBLE
AA vsQQ vs j9 flop QJJ
on that flop it is WET and you can get VALUE from a big range of hands
AA or QQ not c-betting in position is unreasonable at any decent stake
So this wasnt GTO folding..
Now from the bluff GTO opponents view with kq raising and getting called by the button
jjq flops a pair of queens and assumes opponent has nothing mabey a 10 q with a weaker kicker ,small pair,109.
Most likely doesnt have ANYTHING only 2 jjs in the deck
and I need chips
.but my opponent is tight so imma let another card fall and let him get another chance to bluff me most likely does not have a J
turn comes a 9 only k10 scares us but we have a k in our hand as a blocker
he checks and I am DONE checking lets bet.
I get reraised on the turn
If I feel like he thinks im a bluffer or can be bluffed because my vpip aggr cbet and stuff is far right
then I'm gonna float it with a call and let him shove the river hopefully because im full of sh^t in his mind
He makes a classic weak bet on the river after taking forever with the clock
Yeah IM ALL IN
thiink of the fold equity I get against my opponent having made the straight or had j8!!!! BOOOM
Bro I do this ALL THE TIME
j9 was a PRO player that made ranges but didnt construct the would my opponent check AA QQ pn this flop and made a bad fold, bad judgment ,bad checks to opponents flop and his range .
I'd do that river shove EVERYTIME with my entire range against that opponent
Get 10 Hungry sharks together alone forever
And someones going to be fish food
