This is a discussion on Future Play $EV ICM confusion :s within the online poker forums, in the Tournament Poker section; Hi. I've just got involved in posting in poker forums and this is my first here. Along with 2+2 this one has been particulary helpful.
Hi. I've just got involved in posting in poker forums and this is my first here. Along with 2+2 this one has been particulary helpful. I'll be sure attempt to be the same for others.
I've already posted this in 2+2 but I thought best to increase my chances of reply by posting here as well. I don't know if that's bad etiquette or something but if so sorry. Hopefully it's alright. This is a copy and paste of my initial post for sake of ease. Thanks for the help.
My question is regarding future play in general but more specifically in regards to 6 max hyper-turbos super-KOs.
My understanding of ICM is that it works on the basis that if everyone were to split the money at that moment what ICM concludes is what everyone should recieve. Now I understand that ICM has limitations and this (especially in this format) I believe constitutes a HUGE misjudgement of ICM (potentially game changing misjudgement) but I have no idea how to mathamatically work it out.
Let's just consider that everyone is hypothetically playing perfect NASH push fold for sake of ease.
If you were to have a big stack (or particularly short stack) in 6 max hyper-turbo SKO it means you can profitable shove more hands (sometimes any two from any position). So using this logic we can conclude that in many cases playing the next hand (rather than hypothetically take your ICM $EV) is actually going to be +$EV for a big stack because the accumalation of your $EV over your entire range is positive. This could then surely carry on to the hand after and so on and so on. If this is the case then aren't the $EV according to ICM predictions for big stacks massively underated due to what they can do with that big stack. If my logic is correct a big stack should add the average +$EV of his next hand and the one after and so on. Perhapes this effect stops when it goes heads up due to ICM reverting back to CEV (but I'm not even sure about that).
Am I thinking about this right or not? If I am does anybody have a clue how to accuratley calculate your actual $EV including future play.
p.s. I am aware that ICMizer 2 has got FGS but from what I've read that is only considering blinds and position not actually the $EV of playing your next hand(s).
Thanks in advance for any help. This is boggling my mind.
I've just done some more studying and realised perhapes I misunderstood ICM calculation and may have rectified it but I'll try to explain myself better. If ICM says that shoving your hand would be +$EV in the spot say increasing your $EV from $10 to $15 (and allowing you stack domination) if then computers took over and played perfect NASH push/fold for everyone would you end up winning $15 on average or would it be more because of stack domination. If you can help thank you so much.