EV+ MTT?

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cesar626

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Hi! I'm relatively new to poker, So I'm still learning my way around. But can a MTT be EV+ from the late registration end or even earlier? Let's say the buy in is $1 and the prize pool has $200 garanteed but by the time the registration ends (assumings there is no more chance for rebuy or add-on) there are only 100 players. A simple average ( not accounting for skill) would suggest the expected value would be $2. What are your toughts?
 
jordanbillie

jordanbillie

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Hi! I'm relatively new to poker, So I'm still learning my way around. But can a MTT be EV+ from the late registration end or even earlier? Let's say the buy in is $1 and the prize pool has $200 garanteed but by the time the registration ends (assumings there is no more chance for rebuy or add-on) there are only 100 players. A simple average ( not accounting for skill) would suggest the expected value would be $2. What are your toughts?


Correct:cool:
 
NWPatriot

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Hi! I'm relatively new to poker, So I'm still learning my way around. But can a MTT be EV+ from the late registration end or even earlier? Let's say the buy in is $1 and the prize pool has $200 garanteed but by the time the registration ends (assumings there is no more chance for rebuy or add-on) there are only 100 players. A simple average ( not accounting for skill) would suggest the expected value would be $2. What are your toughts?


Strictly speaking, i suppose you could interpret it that way, but I think there is a lot more to consider in a late entry. If you register a few seconds before the registration period ends, and you start off with a 10bb stack and the average stack is 40bb+, you are at a serious disadvantage and you do not really have full chip utility in your toolbox. So your particular EV, is not going to be nearly as good as EVERYONE else. You are already in shove/fold mode and you are at the mercy of the deck. This is high variance poker that resembles the lottery, more than poker.

When I enter late, I will only do so if I can have at least a 25bb stack and I am no more than a single double up away from the average stack. This is my personal preference to ensure that I can still play some poker.

Good luck and God Bless.
 
marianexbj

marianexbj

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When there are tournaments that do not cover their guarantee, it is called overlay, it is good to take advantage of it if you really believe that there are chances of reaching prizes, since suppose that the late registration is ending and if you enter at that moment the initial stack is few blinds, I don't know what so convenient it is to enter if the average of chips of the other players is very high and if there is a long way to go before the ITM. It is a matter of seeing and analyzing, personally I always try to play the tournaments from the beginning since you can see more hands, you can see rivals movements and that is when the recreational players make the most mistakes, then you can add a good stack for the middle stage of the tournament.
 
jordanbillie

jordanbillie

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Strictly speaking, i suppose you could interpret it that way, but I think there is a lot more to consider in a late entry. If you register a few seconds before the registration period ends, and you start off with a 10bb stack and the average stack is 40bb+, you are at a serious disadvantage and you do not really have full chip utility in your toolbox. So your particular EV, is not going to be nearly as good as EVERYONE else. You are already in shove/fold mode and you are at the mercy of the deck. This is high variance poker that resembles the lottery, more than poker.

When I enter late, I will only do so if I can have at least a 25bb stack and I am no more than a single double up away from the average stack. This is my personal preference to ensure that I can still play some poker.

Good luck and God Bless.


What if in the last minute of late reg, there are only 79 players remaining and 71 get paid (with 10 - 15 short stacks). Would you still forgo registering with 10BBs?
 
NWPatriot

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If you can find one of these situations, then you have a good shot at a minimum cash. Once you cash, you may be fortunate enough to climb the pay ladder a few rungs as well. I always look at the tournaments that have big overlays (more prize money than entrants). This helps to find additional value.

I have seen a ton of people register for these late spots. Like when we are 10 from the money, and 20 more people suddenly register at the last moment. Obviously, only some of these 20 late entries will cash, as there are now 30 short'ish stacks to the bubble. If your chances are 1 in 30 to fold your way to the money, you do not have a +EV situation, without playing some poker.

It is always good to look for the "easy money". Tournament poker has a lot of money at the top, but it takes work to get there, and that work isn't the easy money.

Good luck and God Bless
 
jordanbillie

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If you can find one of these situations, then you have a good shot at a minimum cash. Once you cash, you may be fortunate enough to climb the pay ladder a few rungs as well. I always look at the tournaments that have big overlays (more prize money than entrants). This helps to find additional value.

I have seen a ton of people register for these late spots. Like when we are 10 from the money, and 20 more people suddenly register at the last moment. Obviously, only some of these 20 late entries will cash, as there are now 30 short'ish stacks to the bubble. If your chances are 1 in 30 to fold your way to the money, you do not have a +EV situation, without playing some poker.

It is always good to look for the "easy money". Tournament poker has a lot of money at the top, but it takes work to get there, and that work isn't the easy money.

Good luck and God Bless

Now imagine being the fool who re-entered 5x in the MTT you could have just regged for at the last possible minute and get the GTD ITM. :)
 
Alekxandrovi3

Alekxandrovi3

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The stacks of all tournament players remain in play. Before icm, the price of your stack is equal to the value of the bin.
 
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Qrise

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the average reward in this case, you say, will be $ 2 ... Well, well, let's say, but if you won the tournament in which the buy-in was $ 1, you will not play such a tournament again at the price of $ 1, you will already play $ 2 buy-in tournament! And if you win this tournament? you will go to the tournament, the entrance to which already costs $ 5. Because bankroll management will allow. Well, now then, it is possible to stop at this tournament, if the average income is 10 dollars, will the sum be normal? :rolleyes:
 
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fundiver199

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Hi! I'm relatively new to poker, So I'm still learning my way around. But can a MTT be EV+ from the late registration end or even earlier? Let's say the buy in is $1 and the prize pool has $200 garanteed but by the time the registration ends (assumings there is no more chance for rebuy or add-on) there are only 100 players. A simple average ( not accounting for skill) would suggest the expected value would be $2. What are your toughts?

This is true, but the expected value for each player (also referred to as ICM value) depends on their stack size. And if half the field has busted, then the average stack size will be twice the starting stack. Someone buying in at the last moment will only have the starting stack, and therefore the ICM value of their chips is not 2$. It is however a little more than 1$, so there is some advantage of registrering late.

There might also be situations, where a tournament has an overplay. Say the guaranty is 200$, but with 1 minute left of late registration only 170 players have entered or reentered for 1,1$ each. If you find such a tournament, then by all means buy in, since your chips will then clearly be worth more than 1$ because of the overlay.
 
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