Downswing or Playing Bad?

[DaMooca]

I think that 62 sng without any itm is a little worrying , especially in those sng micros, that a large part of the field is very weak.
As they already said, it is necessary to review your hands played and see if you have not played the way you should or if you are just a downswing.

 

[jordanbillie]

The probability of not getting into the prizes 64 times in a row for an average player (15% itm) is:

0.85^64=0.003%

But this is a probibility for the next 64 tournaments.

For the last 64 tournaments, this formula is incorrect.

We need to look for the probability for N tournaments, where N is much greater than 64, that there will be a negative streak of 64 consecutive losses. This probability will be much greater and when N tends to infinity, it will be equal to 100%

Which is why it is so challenging to interpret data.

 

[davidsincara]

I think is the egg-chicken thingy: your downswing could start with playing bad and continue downwards until you realize what the hell you are doing. Sometimes you just playing bad (because of you dont care about learning poker theory cuz poker is fun for you and dont care about money) and enter on a downswing without you even realize it...

I guess only "stuydied" people knows the difference between the 2, and can change the odds on future sessions

 

[fifille07]

Ask advice to someone you know is good.
Study.
Watch players from your limit you know have success.

How can I tell if i am just in a downswing or just playing bad. I have lost the last 62 45man and 90man 25c SNG's. I havent played a ton around 100 games which isn't a ton but i'm just wondering how to tell.

 

[63burner]

maybe both..

Internally, you usually know how you're playing, from your expected results. If you are playing properly, and it doesn't go your way, it's a simple downswing.
The one thing many forget is that it takes a lot of timely cards, both pre-flop flop, turn, and river to make it happen for a long stretch of playing to be successful.

Skill counts, but good cards defeat every strategy ever developed.

 

[Juli]

Whether playing good or during a downswing, one thing is certain: it is necessary to improve different areas of your game, this is what can help to minimize losses when things do not go on your way until the downswing is over.

 

[jeffman123]

The best way to tell if you're in a downsing or playing bad is by using software like PokerTracker to analyze your past games and see where you made mistakes.

 

[Zirkzee]

Luck plays a much higher factor in tournaments than in cash games. That is the reason why you do not really know at first if you are playing well. You can easily not get into the prize money in many tournaments even though you play really well. Even in cash games, the variance in poker is high so that you can have a downswing of several thousand hands. All in all, it is very difficult to say whether it is a downswing or bad playing. But you can analyze your hands and continuously improve your game.

 

[mclay]

Whether playing good or during a downswing, one thing is certain: it is necessary to improve different areas of your game, this is what can help to minimize losses when things do not go on your way until the downswing is over.

Well said, I agree with you. I would also like to add that to minimize losses during downswing, you can simply switch to other poker rooms, it helps me personally.

 

[Goku55]

Take notes

its always good to at least try to take notes of players and all hands you get involved in for later analysis, that's the only way I can see the exact place I went wrong. Hope this helped.

 

[PC91]

I don't believe in downswings, but either way, that seems like a pretty large amount of tournaments to not place in, so it would seem very likely some areas of your play need improving.

Why don't you believe in downswings? I've experienced enough downswings in my poker life. When I watch pros on Twitch, I see plenty of badbeats and downswings there as well. It's a part of poker.

 

[Juli]

Hi, mclay!
It seems to be a very good strategy. Sometimes I think that play different poker rooms at the same time may be detrimental to my game.

Well said, I agree with you. I would also like to add that to minimize losses during downswing, you can simply switch to other poker rooms, it helps me personally.