Downswing or Normal Variance?

[BigFatRat]

Hi team,

See attached my plot for ROI (blue) and profit (green) for my sit n go progress. I know it’s a small sample size. Dotted blue is a running average for ROI.

Being new to actually tracking this stuff, and very new to playing regularly, I’m not sure if I should panic or ride it out (To be honest, I’m leaning more toward panic, which is why I’m posting here). Does this recent downward trend represent normal variance for micro turbo 9-man SNGs, or am I in a downswing? Or, I suppose, could I be leveling off to my actual skill level, with the first 50 games being lucky? Any other interpretation would also be appreciated.

Thank you for your time.

 

[fundiver199]

In all likelyhood you were lucky in the first 50 tournaments, and now you are moving closer to your true long term results. I dont know, what stakes you play? But it seem like pretty low stakes, and these are very brutally raked on most sites. You also dont want to be playing such low limits forever, so I would not worry to much about my results but focus more on improving my game.

 

[kley126]

I recommend you concentrate more on improving your game than on the results that maybe you had some luck and you are already within your true results let the term and your level of play talk over time you just have to improve improve improve your game

 

[pentazepam]

It is difficult to have more than 10% ROI in the long run even on lower limits.

So, yes, you were a luck-box on steroids over the first 50 games.

Play at least 10.000 games and see that your ROI shows after that.

 

[BigFatRat]

Thanks for the insight everybody.

I took what you guys said to heart, and stepped back and looked at my play, and decided that I should focus my next bit of study/table work on bubble play, as a lot of those losses (damn near 50% of them) were in 4th/5th place. Reviewing some recent games, I thought that I might be a little bit reckless at that point. I had been working on being aggressive there, but I noted some situations where I was pushing out of position, or against the big stack when I was middle stack, or both. So for tonight’s session, I focused on having more calculated aggression, and being a bit more patient when I wasn’t in dire straights.

I actually had a good session. 6 ITM in 15 games. 4 of the non-cashes were when I shoved at bubble with the best hand, but lost. Three times as 3-1 favorite and one time as 4-1. I’m not complaining about bad beats, I’m taking it as a positive. I made the right play and got what I wanted in all four situations. I’m looking at it as in the long term, I’ll come ahead there. I also battled back from 300 chips once to win, and 168 chips once to place 2nd.

Believe it or not, just seeing you guys say not to worry about it and just work on what I can improve helped my mindset a lot.

This week I’m going to keep the study focus on improving bubble play.

Does anybody have any recommendations for resources on the subject? I have Collin Moshman’s SNG book, which I read a lot. Any other suggestions?

 

[fundiver199]

It is difficult to have more than 10% ROI in the long run even on lower limits.

So, yes, you were a luck-box on steroids over the first 50 games.

Play at least 10.000 games and see that your ROI shows after that.

I have admittedly not played 10.000 yet, but I do have better than 10% ROI in MTTs. For single table SnGs its not even 10% though, and I think, single table SnGs have a lower winrate potential than MTTs. So what is realistic depend on, what exactly OP is playing. If 10$ over 40 tournaments is an ROI of 40%, the average buyin is less than 1$ though, and I would not recommend playing 10.000 tournaments at such extremely low limits. If you are a winning player, you should aim to move up, where the money matter at least a little bit more.

 

[okeedokalee]

Check out the videos by https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCEN-gXxV3gi049oJFRi63hA on youtube, they cover a lot of the ground you are willing to explore. Great free material for some one like you who wants to learn the game.

 

[BigFatRat]

I have admittedly not played 10.000 yet, but I do have better than 10% ROI in MTTs. For single table SnGs its not even 10% though, and I think, single table SnGs have a lower winrate potential than MTTs. So what is realistic depend on, what exactly OP is playing. If 10$ over 40 tournaments is an ROI of 40%, the average buyin is less than 1$ though, and I would not recommend playing 10.000 tournaments at such extremely low limits. If you are a winning player, you should aim to move up, where the money matter at least a little bit more.

I’m playing 50 cent buy ins now. I know I’m not going to get rich doing it, and I certainly don’t plan on playing 10k games at this stake. I just wanted to get a couple hundred or so in at this poverty level to get comfortable with all the aspects of the game that I am working on, without worrying about the money.

While we are on the topic of stakes, if the bank roll is there, when should I consider moving up?

 

[June4Spades]

I’m playing 50 cent buy ins now. I know I’m not going to get rich doing it, and I certainly don’t plan on playing 10k games at this stake. I just wanted to get a couple hundred or so in at this poverty level to get comfortable with all the aspects of the game that I am working on, without worrying about the money.

While we are on the topic of stakes, if the bank roll is there, when should I consider moving up?

Xflixx says, you should move up when you hav 100 times the buy-in in your bankroll.

 

[pentazepam]

I have admittedly not played 10.000 yet, but I do have better than 10% ROI in MTTs. For single table SnGs its not even 10% though, and I think, single table SnGs have a lower winrate potential than MTTs. So what is realistic depend on, what exactly OP is playing. If 10$ over 40 tournaments is an ROI of 40%, the average buyin is less than 1$ though, and I would not recommend playing 10.000 tournaments at such extremely low limits. If you are a winning player, you should aim to move up, where the money matter at least a little bit more.

My comment was about 9-man SnG (he wrote that he played them in the OP).

And my 10.000 game recommendation implied that it is almost impossible to know your ROI before you have played thousands of games. But you should of course move up and down depending on that your bankroll allows while you gather statistics.

When it comes to MTTs it is almost impossible to put a ROI number that you should aim for. Especially big field MTTs. A lot of winning players in tournaments have won some big prize money in very few tournaments. If you play LIVE it takes longer than a life time to reduce the variance to an acceptable level. Online you can maybe multi-table for a couple of years to get a sample big enough to say that you are a winning player or not - but to express those winnings in an significantly exact ROI a least down to single digits or even to nearest double digits are probably not meaningful.

(I don't know how long you have been playing online. But before I specialized in Cash I played a lot of single table Sngs (ca 2004-2007). The joke back then was that you could register and sit out and watch TV after that. Often you would place in the top 3 without playing a single hand. People went all-in left and right even up to 10-30 dollar buy-ins. Things have surely changed. Now you have mainly Russians that limp almost all their range in 0.25 cents spin and go's. Not very fun when you just want some action on a level next to play money.)

 

[BigFatRat]

My comment was about 9-man SnG (he wrote that he played them in the OP).

And my 10.000 game recommendation implied that it is almost impossible to know your ROI before you have played thousands of games. But you should of course move up and down depending on that your bankroll allows while you gather statistics.

When it comes to MTTs it is almost impossible to put a ROI number that you should aim for. Especially big field MTTs. A lot of winning players in tournaments have won some big prize money in very few tournaments. If you play LIVE it takes longer than a life time to reduce the variance to an acceptable level. Online you can maybe multi-table for a couple of years to get a sample big enough to say that you are a winning player or not - but to express those winnings in an significantly exact ROI a least down to single digits or even to nearest double digits are probably not meaningful.

(I don't know how long you have been playing online. But before I specialized in Cash I played a lot of single table Sngs (ca 2004-2007). The joke back then was that you could register and sit out and watch TV after that. Often you would place in the top 3 without playing a single hand. People went all-in left and right even up to 10-30 dollar buy-ins. Things have surely changed. Now you have mainly Russians that limp almost all their range in 0.25 cents spin and go's. Not very fun when you just want some action on a level next to play money.)

I knew that you weren’t suggesting that I play 10k games in the micros, and that you were pointing out that 1 win or 1 loss at 80 games hits the ROI noticeably, as opposed to at 10k games, where 1 game won’t change it at all. I appreciate your insight, I certainly didn’t intend to come across as unappreciative.

I started playing SNGs a long time ago, mid 2000s or so. I’d put in 50 bucks, play some 5 dollar SNGs, make a few bucks, then blow it on a cash game, or on higher buy In SNGs. Then the bubble burst on internet poker and I stopped playing altogether. Probably been 10 years since I last played.

I’m not entirely new to the game of poker. I have what I would call a decent working knowledge of the fundamentals. This is just the first time that I’ve decided to get serious about it, and actually try to learn the game and improve instead of just playing recreationally every now and then.

I do remember the SNGs being easier back then. I was a complete noob and I could place in a decent share of them, at $5-$20. I remember swinging at a few $35s and cashing. Now I’m posting on a poker forum about learning how to play in the $0.50 games...

 

[madmandown]

It's all about the volume

 

[fundiver199]

My comment was about 9-man SnG (he wrote that he played them in the OP).

My bad. I did not read the original post properly. In that case I completely agree. I have never been big on turbo SnGs, so even though I have played a lot on Stars, this particular tournament is not very familiar to me. Just for fun I played 4 of them today after coming home from work, and even though its just above play money, the majority of players were the usual grinders, that you see in all micro games today. I have seen softer fields in 5-7$ SnGs than in these 50c turbos.

In top of that skill edge has less time to show in a turbo, and pokerstars keep 6c out of the 50c buyin, which is a fairly high 12%. Given all that I think, you can consider yourself an extremely competent player, if you are able to achieve a 10% ROI over a sample of 1.000`s of these.

Just as a side note nearly all online tournaments today play with antes, but this particular SnG does not until blind level 7. This actually makes it kind of a poor training tool, because no antes reward playing tight, and it significantly changes the push-fold math. I would therefore personally prefer to train with the 45 man SnGs on Stars, since these have antes from blind level 1, and they are also lower raked.

 

[BigFatRat]

My bad. I did not read the original post properly. In that case I completely agree. I have never been big on turbo SnGs, so even though I have played a lot on Stars, this particular tournament is not very familiar to me. Just for fun I played 4 of them today after coming home from work, and even though its just above play money, the majority of players were the usual grinders, that you see in all micro games today. I have seen softer fields in 5-7$ SnGs than in these 50c turbos.

In top of that skill edge has less time to show in a turbo, and PokerStars keep 6c out of the 50c buyin, which is a fairly high 12%. Given all that I think, you can consider yourself an extremely competent player, if you are able to achieve a 10% ROI over a sample of 1.000`s of these.

Just as a side note nearly all online tournaments today play with antes, but this particular SnG does not until blind level 7. This actually makes it kind of a poor training tool, because no antes reward playing tight, and it significantly changes the push-fold math. I would therefore personally prefer to train with the 45 man SnGs on Stars, since these have antes from blind level 1, and they are also lower raked.

You really think the $5-$7 field is softer? Well that’s encouraging! I was actually a little surprised how unfishy the $0.50 games are. I expected high flying early on and timid play late, but it truly isn’t unheard of to have a full ring when the 100-200 blinds hit. Don’t get me wrong, there are still plenty of players who would rather blind out than push before that happens, just not as many as I expected.

About he high rake: I am a US player, currently playing at Global poker for the $0.50 game and ACR for the $1.50 game. I only have 25 of the $1.50 game under my belt, but there is an interesting phenomenon; I cash more in that game than the $0.50 game (40% vs / 36%), but I have a -ROI on that game as I have only taken 1st just once, where as the $0.50 turbo I have 16 firsts out of 92 attempts. I can’t figure out why I have such a hard time making it past 3rd in the regular speed game. 3 handed play is on my study list, but bubble play is what I’m focusing on at the moment.

Where was I...oh yes, the rake. The micro games at both Global and ACR rake the standard 10%, so I don’t have the extra rake problem. In fact, the turbo games at ACR are only raked 8% ($0.12 rake on a $1.50 turbo) so that makes it a bit more intriguing. There doesn’t seem to be as much interest in the turbo games though, so I play the regular game at ACR instead. At Global, there isn’t an option at the low stakes. Some stakes have regular, some don’t. I truly do prefer the regular speed.

 

[kraemer]

I think that the sample is far too small. Especially for micro stakes turbo SNGs...
In a game where people are in push-or-fold mode that easily it is not uncommon to lose a bunch of games in a row even if you play well...
I would not even call this a downswing... You are still in profit. Not much any more but a 7% ROI is not too bad in the long run...
Be prepared for real downswings in which you will lose money. I'm sorry, but i bet these times will come. That's why bankroll managment is so important. It is pretty much impossible to maintain a positive ROI at all times...

 

[fundiver199]

You really think the $5-$7 field is softer?

What I meant was just, that those specific 50c SnGs, that I played last night on Stars, were less soft than some 5-7$ SnGs, that I have played at other times. In general tournaments do tend to get less soft, as you move up, but its a very gradual process, and the difference from table to table is much larger than the difference from limit to limit.

There are still recreational players in 5-7$ SnGs and presumably also higher. And on the other side, its not like 50c or 1$ SnGs are only played by clueless fish and gamblers. This is something, I feel, not everybody understand, especially not if they come from a live poker background.

But online you see a lot of players, I typically call them regulars, who take the game serious but try to build a bankroll from scratch and therefore start out grinding very low limits. They are typically still relatively new to the game, but they have studied strategy and tend to understand, what is going on, at least to some degree. .

These 50c SnGs, that I played on Stars, tended to have no more than 1-2 fish on each table, while the rest were regulars. And that is simply not an environment, where anyone can expect to post a dubble digit ROI over large samples, when they also have to pay a high rake.

Its possible, that 50c SnGs might be different on other sites though. Since I have not played them, I can not speak about that. I dont dont why, but I mistakenly assumed, you were playing on Stars, maybe just because I found a 50c turbo 9-man in their lobby

 

[BigFatRat]

I thought I’d offer an update on my progress. It may help somebody else who gets overly concerned about a short term loosing streak like I was.

See attached my profit chart, with circled area being the “downswing” I was so concerned about at the time. Even at just over 500 games now (which I know is still a small sample), it’s easy to see how it was just a blip, and nothing to worry about.

I have been improving, moved up in stakes, and I am seeing decent profits. I now am playing the $1 and $3 SNGs, with an occasional shot at the $6. Much of my learning has stemmed from forum posts here, so thank you to all who contributed all the valuable information.

 

[neafana]

This is nothing. to small the sample to realize something.