Double Or Nothings

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1KrazyMofo

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So I am curious what type of variance to expect from Hyper Turbo DoNs
as well as Turbo DoNs...

what type of variance to expect? ( as a winning player )
need to win 53% to be profitable atm 47% over short sample though,
I just thought double or nothings would be easy for bankroll building
as I only need to be top 53% to be profitable, what kind of variance to expect over 100
200 300 games etc so Instead I plugged the info in to a Variance Calculator using a 10% Roi ( I believe mine to be better in the long term )
Simulated with 5 samples each time...

Only a $1 game 0.95 + 0.05
Games
100 = 3 samples was down 2 samples was up, worst was -$5 best was +$10
200 = all samples was up, worst was +$14, best was +$39
300 = all samples was up, worst was +$16, best was +$51
400 = all samples was up, worst was +$29, best was +$61

so is it safe to say, that you shouldn't be down over 200 games in the game mode?
has any profitable players had some much worst swings then these?

when I simulated more samples, some was down even over 500-900 games
it took 1k games for the worst to finally be in profit by +$13

this kind of scares me a little knowing how bad I run, for a game mode that I always looked at as an easy BR builder.. even though I'd expect my ROI to be something closer to 15-20% possibly more with such low rake...

any players that are experienced in this game mode that that have a 20%+ ROI
advice on bankroll I should take for this small Buy-in, currently started with $40 but I'm down to $35 and I'm really not having fun :mad: lol

Even if I broke evens daily and managed to get a couple dollars from the PP leaderboards I'd be happy with that, but just seems not to be happening for me.
 
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1KrazyMofo

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haha , the real question is whats a safe bankroll for these? as am very unlucky :)

I mean I just lost AK vs KQ and AA vs QQ back to back, but this is normal for me right this moment... 3 outer followed by a 2 outer and I am out, wish it was as simple as wait for cards and Double my money, not only that even if you double, you have to still play strong hands else you will still dwindle out.
 
black and

black and

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I also sometimes play in these tournaments, but I think your calculations are too complicated. I think that tournaments of this format are not the best option for building a bankroll. And according to your complex calculations, I once again concluded for myself that it is better to build a bankroll with freerolls.
 
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3ccasd

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When it comes to dispersion, sometimes a longer distance is needed. And also more knowledge of the theory in this aspect is possible.
 
TeUnit

TeUnit

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Where do you find hyper turbo DONs at?
 
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