This is a discussion on Coin flip preflop variance within the online poker forums, in the Tournament Poker section; What is the maximum period of time always losing/bust out if you always gamble allin coin flip situation preflop? Let's say in Pokerstars.. 

Coin flip preflop variance 
#1




Coin flip preflop variance
What is the maximum period of time always losing/bust out if you always gamble allin coin flip situation preflop? Let's say in Pokerstars..
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#2




not sure what you mean... over time it will be 50/50, but you can still lose 10 in a row or more, it can happen. The funny thing about variance is that the more you play, the more variance you are likely to expect to see, relative to your skill level and edge in the games you play.
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#3




What are you asking? How many coin flips you can lose in a row? If that's the question, the answer is theoretically infinite, you might lose every coin flip you ever have.
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#4




if not want to gamble then avoid high variance plays.
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#5




re: Poker & Coin flip preflop variance
It all depends on how large your sample size is. Over a larger sample size, you can expect it to be near 50/50.
Lets take a coin and flip 100,000 times. At the end, the number of heads vs tails should be pretty equal. It might not be exactly 50/50, but close enough...say 49/51. Now, if we take that same coin and flip it only 100 times, it may not come as close to 50/50. It may be 60/40 or even 70/30. Lets say it's 70% heads, it doesn't mean that heads is going to come up more often than tails, it just means your sample size is too low to get it exact. So, to answer your question: there is no exact number but over time, if you are in 50/50 situations, your win/lose with balance out. Busting out of 10 tournaments (for example) in 50/50 situations is nothing. Just because it's 50/50 doesn't mean you're going to win 5 flips, lose 5 flips. It's not how it works.
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I always think that my decision is not right in that coin flip situation because I lost.. And now seeking for good ideas and do better next time...
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#9




That doesn't depend on Pokerstars. Pokerstars doesn't say "this player lost too often. Let's let him win again." It's only luck if the random generator let's you win.
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#10




re: Poker & Coin flip preflop variance
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DonCamente... (Twitch) 
#11




what do you mean? In coin flip its all luck you can win or loose with any card
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#12




More to the actual important point here, it's not pokerstars doing this to you, it's almost certainly a lack of skill and lack of volume that is truly the cause of your tournament misfortunes, sorry to sound like a dick, but the sooner you accept that, the sooner you can move on and get better at this game. "bank calculating everything if I gamble my hand in the middle game..how many players left, average stack sizes, etc. If I call and win at showdown, I'm a chip leader and more guaranteed to final table but unfortunately I don't hit my AK clubs and get bust out by pocket 88. I always think that my decision is not right in that coin flip situation because I lost.. And now seeking for good ideas and do better next time..." Just wanted to address the above post to logan. The thing you need to realize about poker is that it differs from pretty much everything else you learn at on the planet. Most things, you work at it, you will get better and you will see the results of the improve as you practise. Think playing tennis, the more you play, the better you results will be to a certain point. If you are studying something in school, the more you study it the better you will understand and thus your results will improve. however, poker is differant as you have a luck element which can really throw people off balance if they don't realize how much of a bitch variance can be. So you study poker, you get a better understanding, You bring this new understanding to the poker table and you get crushed, lose every hand, get dominated every time. But it wasn't beacuse you were playing bad, it's just that the luck element was not on your side tonight. Of course we should always be improving/tweaking our game, BUt sometimes we implement a new way to play, and if we don't see results immediately we give up or try something else, when what was to blame was a bad run of variance. Converesly, lets say we go to a poker coach, we get training, and suddenly we run really good on the tables and we win a ton. Now, granted you probably learnt a few things, but more likely is that you are just on a run of good luck at the tables. Then in a weeks time you start running bad and you are again questioning everything you learnt. I've been in both of these situations, but really what helped me most was looking into variance and how bad it can be, EVEN if you are playing GOOD. Hope this babble helps somewhat.
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