This is a discussion on Check of the century or simply weak on long run? within the online poker forums, in the Tournament Poker section; Key factor is: villain is a decent reg with low oop cbet and low flop giveup.
Based on these ^^ i figured he is much more
Key factor is: villain is a decent reg with low oop cbet and low flop giveup.
Based on these ^^ i figured he is much more likely to check KQ, QJ, QT on the flop than to cbet them. Also i think my IP raise looks quite scary vs UTG, so i think if he happened to cbet KQ, he folds those on the turn unless he picked up flushdraw.
He can obviously have some KJdd/JTdd-type hands, but those don't matter when we think about valuebetting the river.
So although river looked like a dreamcard for the first sight, i don't think it really is.
Also he was quite nitty, so not sure he opens 44 pre UTG.
I'll win a lot when checked down, but if i bet i'll get action from an AA/AQ/44(50%)/(KdQd(50%)-looking range + very few additional Qx/Ax he may got out of line.
I love the way you play every street before the river, but Iím not a fan of the river check. You make a lot of good points in your post and are clearly thinking about your opponent on a high level.
I think though that the most important thing here is more simple than all of thatóyou have a huge hand, and your opponent has been calling large bets from you. Itís certainly true that some of the time youíre beat, but I believe (despite what he shows down with in this actual hand) that most of the time you have the best hand here. When the pot on the river is the same size as his stack thatís because youíve done an excellent job building the pot to that point and now is the time to capitalize on that by shoving the river!