This is a discussion on Calling All-in on the Flop w/Strong Draw within the online poker forums, in the Tournament Poker section; I have been running into some spots in tournaments where I will have a very strong draw on the flop like combo draw or Flush+Overcards
I have been running into some spots in tournaments where I will have a very strong draw on the flop like combo draw or Flush+Overcards and am faced with an all-in or fold situation. I have called everytime (and lost), but I am wondering if this is the correct option.
I have checked my equity in these spots at the time of the All-in, and in everyone of the last 3 cases I have been slightly ahead with my equity being 51%-55%.
Is it worth it to risk the tournament life, over this coin-flip situation, or fold and look for a better spot. My hand in the picture, I have short-stack and this seemed like a good spot to get it in, but what about if my stack was much deeper? This villain had 9h2h and hit a back door flush. I had 51.8% equity on the flop.
As you said, you had more than 50% equity. That means that you should win more than half the times you try that. You got unlucky and lost, that happens a lot, even when you have more than 70% equity.
Mathematically speaking, if you're trying to win the tournament, you have to call these kinds of hands. If you're aiming for the best cash you can get, you could check ICM and decide if it's worth the risk.
I dont like the paired flop, if he has a 7 your way behind.
Other than that, I think you have to consider the competition, if you have a nice size stack and have had luck playing a lot of flops, Im not going to call off my stack, Im going to demand fold equity in any case, but really im going to keep my raises small and see a lot of flops looking to outplay people, and avoid all ins all together.
cash game is totally different story though, but I still wouldnt be too excited about the overcards on a paired flop...
In these situations you must act wisely. When we see a couple preflop and two spades, the first thinks we think are a three of a kind, a flush or a full house. Why not also a four of a kind? Then you think the possibility of a bluff. In this case you had, I think that it would be wise to fold, and save your stack for safer situations.
re: Poker & Calling All-in on the Flop w/Strong Draw
Hi, I call in that situation the player is telling me that he has only one 2 then I have the spades, K or Q to win the hand the percentages are in your favor is the time to win a good amount of chips, unfortunately you were not lucky but the call was from my point of view a correct movement.
Whether or not it's a call depends in a lot of variables but before considering any of them you should first consider your future chip EV.
1. Do you have an edge over the table or the majority of it at least? If your answer is yes, you should lean more towards a fold in spots that take leave things to the poker gods.
2. How many big blinds will you have left if you make that fold?
If folding puts you at a greater risk of busting out due to losing fold equity then you should take this spot regardless of point 1.
3. What is villain capable of doing this with and how do you fare against that range?
4. Tournament structure. Does the tournament allow for shorts to wait for better spots or does it swallow them up? See 2.
5. Pay out considerations. Are we in the money, nearing the bubble or far from it?
6. In some cases you might consider the field toughness or softness. When the field is tough it means you'll have more spots to 3bet get it in and get folds. If the field is soft you'll have fewer spots to steal because you'll get looked up lighter than you'd expect so you'll have to have much stronger holdings in 3bet jam spots.
That's everything when in such a spot. You should already have the answers to all these points as you play so when a spot like that comes it's just a quick 5 sec recap