To bluff or not to bluff this river?

[vox1er]

Info on villain (98 hands):
pfr: 12%
cbet: 45%

UTG: 12,892 (26 bb)
UTG+1: 11,526 (23 bb)
MP: 5,062 (10 bb)
MP+1: 7,782 (16 bb)
LP: 8,780 (18 bb)
CO: 8,088 (16 bb)
BU: 2,264 (5 bb)
SB: 13,779 (28 bb)
BB (Hero): 13,396 (27 bb)

Pre-Flop: (1,470) Hero is BB with T♦ Q♦
UTG raises to 1,140, 7 players fold, Hero calls 640

Flop: (3,250) 6♥ 6♠ 3♦ (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks

Turn: (3,250) 7♦ (2 players)
Hero bets 2,000, UTG calls 2,000

River: (7,250) 3♠ (2 players)
-
Is this a good spot to bluf the river or not?

 

[fundiver199]

I think so. You dont have showdown value with Q high, and while he probably know, the river card did not help you, it did not help him either, and you are continuing your story from the turn, that you have just basically anything, that can beat A high. I dont think, he is folding a big overpair, but he could certainly peel one of on the turn with an AK type of hand and then fold on the river.

 

[Bozovicdj]

To be honest, this is a 50-50 spot.

1. Defending range from the BB is super wide, so it has some hands with a 6/7 or a 3 in them. Also, defending range could be 45 as well, so this board is sort of ok for you, as you are more likely to actually connect with this board then the Villain.

2. Your bet on the turn is supposed to do what? chase him off a hand, cause now you have some equity? Were you trying to rep a 7?
You need to realize that any 3X hand is not betting the turn. Most 7X hands are not betting the turn either cause UTG range has to be consisted of a lot of pocket pairs, which would 100% be overpairs on such a board, so you are really saying one of two things:
"I have a flush draw" or "I have 45 or a 6". Literally, there is nothing else you could have.

If you got called on the turn, I'd say opponent thought you are on a flush draw, (some small portion of the time, opponent will put you on 7x), so he has all that beat, probably with a pair of tens, jacks, or something similar, don't forget he is raising pre only 12% of the time, which is a rather small amount > from UTG his range should be pretty narrow.

Since no draw really got there on the river, your bet would have to be a shove really, which puts him at risk of busting out of the tournament. You would have to sell a story that you either have the nuts, or a pure bluff, and put him in a 50-50 spot where most people fold not wanting to risk their tournament life.

Personally, this is why I don't lead the turn in your spot. Go for check-call almost always in these spots! If opponent raised after your turn bet, you pretty much have to fold, so check-calling should have been the optimal play.

 

[Jon Poker]

Pre-Flop: (1,470) Hero is BB with T♦ Q♦
UTG raises to 1,140, 7 players fold, Hero calls 640

Flop: (3,250) 6♥ 6♠ 3♦ (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks

Turn: (3,250) 7♦ (2 players)
Hero bets 2,000, UTG calls 2,000

River: (7,250) 3♠ (2 players)
-
Is this a good spot to bluf the river or not?

Unless you think your opponent would trap with an overpair or a small set - absolutely you should be bluffing this river. You bet the turn - the flop and the turn are way better for your range than the opponents range - should be very tight from an UTG raise.

I would bet between 5500-5750 on the river and make it look like I have the 7 or possibly slow played the 6. It's hard to call of with the Hope's of just chopping at best with A high.

If it were me, I would be bluffing the river. If you dont get caught bluffing once in a while you aren't trying hard enough.

 

[jadaminato]

I think your bet on the turn could be considered a bluff, because you had nothing, so you should continue with the bluff on the river. It is likely that the villain had nothing, so with a proper bet he would have folded (unless it was call-station).

 

[Luvepoker]

The river card is not a great one for you. If he has an ace high he maybe stubborn and call with 2 pair here. Unless he really buys the bet you made and is certain you have a 7 what else could you be representing. If you believe he will fold a ace high here I would bluff. If he is a sticky player dont bluff.

 

[vini127]

I would not bluff this river unless I had some very good info about my opp. The 3 doesnt change much, what youre trying to represent? Youre not getting many better hands to fold on this river with a bluff in my opinion.

 

[Igorek1313]

depending on how many players. or which player is in front of you. but in big cases it is not worth it ....:turtle:

 

[Deedgee]

I rarely even think about bluffing when playing on pokerstars. It just doesn't work, at least in tournaments.

 

[Vallet]

If you think your cards are enough to win the hand, there is no point in bluffing.

 

[megiverz1]

Yes!

 

[nameless1537]

I think it's a 50/50 shot and worth taking. But my question is... if you bluff, how much do you bluff with? would 1/3 pot be enough? 1/2 pot? pot-sized or an overbet? If you do a smallish bet, is that enough for you to sell that you have an overpaid, hit a set with a 6 or paired up with the 7 and just trying to entice him to add a little more to the pot? if it's too big, would it announce to the table that "this is a bluff... come at me"? or do you try to "intimidate" with an overbet? My gut tells me to bet 1/3 to 1/2 pot, but I think I'm often a little wary in these kinds of situations of throwing out an overbet with little knowledge of my opponent... And how much does your strategy change based on the kind of tourney you are in (micro vs medium stakes, let's say...)

 

[c0rnBr34d]

If the river didn't pair the board again I think it would be a great bluff spot as your opponent likely has A high. Now that there's 2 pair on the board it's less likely you had a 3. Your value range has been narrowed significantly as it's tougher to have a 3 or a 6 and the 7 may not go for value on this river after getting called on the turn. If this is a cash game I still like to go for the bluff here. But if it's a tournament I'd probably give up and check. I can see a V getting sticky here with two pair and the Ace to see if you're really defending your blinds that wide.

 

[fickleberry]

I would say this is a good spot to bluff, but you need to bet a good size. I would even opt to overbet the pot because he will be aware of the fact that you know that the board paired and it will look like you want to get max value from an ace-high hero call.

The reason we want to bluff here is because of his PFR range (12%):

77+, A7s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, 82s, ATo+, KQo

We can safely eliminate the pairs, since he would most certainly cbet those. He never has a 6, but we can! (range advantage; we can defend suited connectors)

 

[tremor_ß]

I would say this is a good spot to bluff, but you need to bet a good size. I would even opt to overbet the pot because he will be aware of the fact that you know that the board paired and it will look like you want to get max value from an ace-high hero call.

The reason we want to bluff here is because of his PFR range (12%):

77+, A7s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, 82s, ATo+, KQo

We can safely eliminate the pairs, since he would most certainly cbet those. He never has a 6, but we can! (range advantage; we can defend suited connectors)

to bluff in these situations is terribly hard, especially in the tournament, rescue all Bank.

 

[Jon Poker]

No risk no reward - you have to balance your range. When I play and am going for max value I will same "super bluffy" bet sizings on the river. As the tournament goes on when I am actually bluffing the sizing looks very similar. What you have to consider is your opponents range - just like I said - along with board texture and whatever information you have on your opponent.

I see lots of answers telling you to play it safe and to never bluff - for me - that's unprofitable. You are never going to have the best hand 100% out of all the hands you chosen to play - plus you should be taking advantage of exploitable players.

Again in short - unless you believe your opponent may have an overpair or it's just a calling station who may have Ace hi - you should always be bluffing this river. You could easily have 67, 78, 79, A7, K7s, etc all in your defensive range from the BB. Leading the turn and continuing the story can easily make sense. No guts no glory, sometimes you just have to go for it. If it doesnt work it, rebuild. Next time when they think you are bluffing put it alllll in there and get the double up

 

[theANMATOR]

I'm putting the villain on either an over pair or A/K, A/Q - if we want to win this pot we have to bluff at it. In this spot - unfortunately - it looks like the only bluff that might work is a shove, putting your tourney life and his on the line.

If villain has an over pair he's probably going to make the call, but if he only has Ace high the bluff may get through, since anything you have is beating him (from his point of view). Ace high calls are difficult for competent players, especially when nearing any bubble.

Additional information from OP would be nice to have;
How close are we to the money at this point?
What is the buy-in?
How has the villain been playing up to this point.?

Historical data is nice to have, and the fact villain doesn't cbet on the flop makes me think he is either floating with Ace high or has an over pair, both hands that are beating us, so the only way we can win this pot is to make an all or nothing bluff.
Anything less than a shove would probably entice villain to make the call - with whatever holding he has.

 

[ChicoRSC]

I`m almost sure that ur opponent was waiting something...
Because of his raise preflop... and just call after... I think he didn`t have nothing or he just have everything...

If I were u... I would try the bluf... if he raise ur bet... u would fold...

 

[vnnby]

Info on villain (98 hands):
pfr: 12%
cbet: 45%

UTG: 12,892 (26 bb)
UTG+1: 11,526 (23 bb)
MP: 5,062 (10 bb)
MP+1: 7,782 (16 bb)
LP: 8,780 (18 bb)
CO: 8,088 (16 bb)
BU: 2,264 (5 bb)
SB: 13,779 (28 bb)
BB (Hero): 13,396 (27 bb)

Pre-Flop: (1,470) Hero is BB with T♦ Q♦
UTG raises to 1,140, 7 players fold, Hero calls 640

Flop: (3,250) 6♥ 6♠ 3♦ (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks

Turn: (3,250) 7♦ (2 players)
Hero bets 2,000, UTG calls 2,000

River: (7,250) 3♠ (2 players)
-
Is this a good spot to bluf the river or not?

The river card is not good for you, but you need to be careful :heeeelllland understand how your opponent plays. I think you can try to bluff, but in your case I would start to bluff after flop :icon_stud :deal:

 

[dimon4ik89]

I think in this situation you could bet on the river. But the bet must be made large, for example, equal to the pot, if the bet is small then the opponent will call and most likely will win by kicker. Pfr 12% indicates that the opponent has a good card on hand, especially since he is in the UTG position, if you had a few more stats on the opponent, it would be easier to determine whether to bluff or not.

 

[foran]

If you bet on the turn, you have to bet on the river, the amount would be the boat or allin, because I don't want to put an easy call with ak and aq.

 

[foran]

another thing is that the cb with position and cb without position is different, my cb without position is very high because I do not want to lose the aggressiveness of the hand, when I have position my decision is different, because I can control the boat without losing the aggressiveness.