Is this a prime example for ICM noob where ICM matters?

J

joeyvegasboi

Rising Star
Hey Everyone,

I was playing in a 200 person tournament pass the money bubble and sitting in 3rd place with about 28 players remaining.

I had about 80k in chips with 2nd about 100 and 1st about 120k.
Average stack was around 30-35k.

1st. $140
2nd.$80
3rd. $35
4th.$20
rest is exponentially lowering with about 10-30 place around only $5

I am sitting in the small blind and guy to my right has re-raised on the button twice in a row now. I have AQs and call his 40k all in. He has A4o.

Board runs out and he catches a 4 and double up and I lose half my stack.

I am new to tourneys guys, is this what realizing ICM considerations is all about?!?!? Where do you know what should be folded generally vs. ICM concerns vs. not? I mean I could have won all his chips and moved up to about tied with first, or what happened was I lost half my stack only to be pushed in the middle of the tier losing another impending flip (although I was in the lead preflop then too).

Should I of folded and looked to play more post flop/maybe looking for a spot too where I gain fold equity to go all in with AQs not call down an all in? Thanks everyone. This was my closest to putting away a tourney as I just started playing them and am not sure if this is just variance and I made the right play or if I should lay this down with ICM considerations.
 
hugh blair

hugh blair

Moderator
Moderator
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tough one just bad luck good spot to add to your stack:eek:
 
J

Joonnn1212

Rock Star
In a situation like this with 30 people left still and consistently low payouts until the end of the final table, ICM is less of a concern for me, and your AQ hand does seem like a fine spot to go for chips. With such top heavy payouts, its reasonable in my opinion to play big pots to try for the chips to secure a more likely top 4 finish than to slowly blind down and more likely finish lower for a small cash.
 
mtl mile end

mtl mile end

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I don't know much about figuring ICM implications, but I do know that Blind size and timing are absolutely necessary to determine your actions in this (or really any) situation.
 
S

Spripe

Visionary
From the sounds of payouts and how many people are left I don't think it's an icm mistake. Those payjumps are ridiculous for final 2. You made a good read and just got unlucky
 
This Fish Chums

This Fish Chums

Visionary
Since you're a beginner, there are some things other than ICM to consider. First, when they went all-in did you stop to consider what they may have before calling? What if they had 88? Could they have even had you dominated with AK?
Then comes the second level of play, did you consider what this specific player shoves all-in with? Had you been watching him closely and based on observation knew he could be shoving with any Ace?

Ultimately you made the right call and just got sucked out on. But whether or not you made the right call is not as important as whether or not you based it on the right information.
 
L

LuisBoaC

Rock Star
But whether or not you made the right call is not as important as whether or not you based it on the right information.

I think this is brilliant! A very good way of thinking about one's poker.

I agree that your read on villain here is very important. I'd like to know the size of the blinds/antes compared to everyone's stacks; how desperate is villain at this point? This would dictate how much I would consider ICM and give clues as to whether villain was considering ICM, which would affect my decision.

It generally feels like you made the right move, you were unlucky here.
 
E

EtoJ

Rising Star
Fold with anything less than two Jacks here, maybe Queens. It’s just not worth it even though you made the right read.
 
TheGiantAsian

TheGiantAsian

Enthusiast
Every situation is different and factors must be weighed differently for every one.
Sometimes it is more optimal to fold the best hand in tournament poker. Chips saved can be more valuable than chips won. Your read was absolutely correct. Your reasoning based on previous orbit action was intuitive. Sometimes being right can lead a player to make a wrong decision though. You already have a top 3 stack. You are comfortably doubled on the average stack. At this point in the tourney the risk far outweighs the reward. Increasing your stack by 50% at this juncture does not significantly increase your chance of winning the tourney by a lot. But losing 50% of your stack at this point decreases your chance of making the final table dramatically. Your chance of making the top 3 go from decent to daunting if you lose half your stack now. AQ looks pretty, and you likely have the best hand, or at worst you are flipping. There are 4 hands that have you in really bad shape (AA, KK, QQ, AK). Do you really want to risk your top 3 stack, and a decent shot to finish in the top 3, with AQo here on the $$$ bubble. Still a long way to go in this marathon. Sometimes folding the best hand is actually more profitable.
 
Vorem

Vorem

Visionary
ICM becomes very important on the final table and at the bubble stage. This is a very important element of the game, you should always know when to go all-in and when to fold, depending on the stack of players, their position and cash payments in the tournament. It will be useful for you to work with the SimpleNash program, it's program free
 
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