This is a discussion on 40% chance All in move? within the online poker forums, in the Tournament Poker section; 48 people in NL tourney. Down to 7 players. I am middle stack with 5 big blinds after the blinds go from 5/10 K to
48 people in NL tourney. Down to 7 players. I am middle stack with 5 big blinds after the blinds go from 5/10 K to 10/20 K I am bb UTG +1 calls and everyone else folds to me. I have 10/J off and check
UTG+1 is a tight and passive with second biggest stack coming to final table. Flop comes K,8,5 hearts. I figure my opponent for a K when he sees the board and lights up. I have a J of hearts and only 4 big blinds left and facing the small blind next. I went ahead and went all in knowing that I was behind and only had a 40% chance at best of catching.
Klickitat..... Try not to get yourself into such situations. Playing such hands at a larger stack would have been more profitable. Have a think about how you got down to 5 BB. Was it by design ( the way you chose to play) or by default ( you lost a hand that dropped you there). Think about a change of strategy earlier to get yourself into the big money.
Maybe in this situation, you should have shoved pre flop! You have little to lose!
__________________ 'The smallest act is worth more than the greatest intention' (Oscar Wilde)
Your equity of 40% is only half the answer, you need to figure out what your Expected value was. Sometimes it is correct going in even when your behind, you know this by figuring out if you have positive EV. When you do the math you will have the answer. The only suggestion I have in the future is what is already being said, Once you get to 15bb start looking for 2 face cards or pocket pair to shove, once your going under 10bb open that up more to hands like Ax
I usually do not allow myself to get that low in bb but it was what it was. I was either absolutely card dead or would see 2 or 3 players jumping in before me. It was just one of those situations where I was where I was. Things do not happen like that very often, but it was was what it was.
As everyone else said you shouldn't be in that situation but I get it when you're card dead and never get a chance before then to make a move. Given the situation I probably would of shoved, is it the right move? Idk. But given the scenario your back was against the wall so you didn't have many chances left for a better one.
I would've shove preflop with JT with 4bbs tbh, specially if it's a tight guy, but remember.. he might call with some weaker ace or king, just because you actually only have 4bbs and he might think you're after blinds..
For example.. JhTc 44.64% 758,962 10,938
Kh7s 55.36% 942,404 10,938
You need to get there, he doesnt.. So be careful in those kinds of situations, and like mentioned above, try not to get blinded down to that small of an amount.. It's hard in some situations, but better to take a few smaller shots when 20bbs deep, than 4bbs fold/shove mode.
Find a spot to jam when you have 10-20 BBs before blinds go up so you don't put yourself in awkward spots like this.
As played, this is a snap shove on the flop.
100% agree with this .I think everybody almost said i , so I don't have to repeat it . Just sth , you said , you don't allow yourself coming to this situation with only 4-5 blinds left but you were card dead (ok, you cannot do anything about it ) or 2 or 3 players jumping in before you ( well , here , if there was a need to double up and I was in your position I wouldn't mind for this if I was lower than 12 blinds )
Waiting until you have 5bb to shove is the problem here. Clearly you are not folding 5bb with your draw. As others have said find a better spot earlier when you have more blinds. With a 5bb stack you are still looking for a spot to shove even after you double up.