This is a discussion on $3.50 NLHE STT Turbo: 9-max, 1bb bubble spot within the online poker forums, in the Tournament Hand Analysis section; https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/824DOeNPn
not sure what to do here. ICM says fold but is it really better to blind away than push J9s now? i was assuming that
not sure what to do here. ICM says fold but is it really better to blind away than push J9s now? i was assuming that it‘s likely to be heads-up vs the big stack, vs a range my hand performs not that bad against. if i fold it's likely i will be in a multiway with any 2.
There are some reasons you should fold J9s. You're facing the opponents have the biggest stack and 3rd stack. That's means with your very short stack SB will call with any two and BB will mostly fold here. If you know ICM theory, you will understand with a short stack, each chip is will more worth than when you have a bigger stack. In your situation with the stack of BB, your push range has to be very tight, your hope is BB will be eliminated. Otherwise, you are taking your risk for nothing with a wide range push (if you hadn't did anything you would have already finished 4th place, your goal was finishing higher than 4th place)
This is very close but I agree with Daniel that folding is correct.
As Vovan says, software like ICMizer can give us the best result. We need to use future game simulation to account for getting blinded out shortly and the possibility that the current big blind busts before us.
Running this hand with FGS Depth 3, our range is top 26% which includes hands down to:
J9s is -0.25% (percent of prizepool equity gain from shoving) and usually a fold here unless we have a particular read on our opponents.