AQ is crushing the range of a 7 BB open jam being the smallest stack at the table with the blinds coming to them in 2 hands. So I would not be worried about our hand being good against theirs.
In a normal pot, when we rejam a hand like AQo and get a fold, our equity goes from maybe 55% to 100%, which is a 45% gain. In this situation however it goes from something like 35 % to 55%, which is only a 20% gain. The numbers will of course behind on the exact range, we put our opponents on, but getting a fold is never as valuable in a protected pot (someone already all-in), as it is in a normal pot.
We are also helping our own equity too and again as stated above, our AQ is way ahead of their range so I would not be thinking this.
I dont think, AQ is way ahead of MPs range. Maybe it has 55-60% equity, and thats not something, I would consider "way ahead".
I get the pay jump piece this argument (getting them knocked out) but I would still be worried about the best way to get chips at this point and not lattering given the stack we have.
With a stack this big chip preservation is more important than chip accumulation. Especially considering, that if we jam and get a fold, the most, we can win, is around 15BB. But if we get called, we can lose more than 30BB, which is a significant chunk of our stack.
Very true but it this goes back to what I said about how good is calling villain.
Given that its late in a 15$ MTT, our default assumption has to be, that this is someone, who is at least somewhat competent. The most crazy fish and gamblers are usually long gone at this point. And there are also less of them to begin with in a 15$ MTT as opposed to a micro game or a freeroll.
We cant assume that calling villain will just check this down with us which is what we need to have happen if we overcall and dont connect.
If my experience if someone bet into a dry sidepot, and we fold, its extremely rare, that we were not way behind and making a correct laydown. So if anything a protected pot is much easier to play out of position than a regular pot. Also if he did actually bluff
, then we know, he is a total donk. So we get valuable information and can take a note on him, which we can use in future hands.
We are very flop, turn, river dependent when we call here.
Sure. We cant bluff effectively, just like MP+1 cant bluff effectively. So whoever makes the best hand is going to win the pot. But this is not a problem, if we think, we have enough equity 3-ways to make a profitable call.
Also 100% true but then we are calling 7 BBs here out of position to a range that we know is at least somewhat good and could be better than ours and we cant do anything unless we hit something.
But neither can MP+1, which actually takes away all his positional advantage.
This would be somewhat fine, I guess, if we knew villain was going to check this down with us but we cant even come close to guaranteeing that.
Once again he will, unless he has us beat or is a total donkey. Which is unlikely late in a 15$ MTT.
Thats why I would fold this mostly but if I was ever going to get involved with the hand (meaning I think villain would not just be doing this with premiums based on my thoughts on them) then I would jam and make villain have to decide what to do with their 1010, JJ type hands (which they could fold depending on what they think of my range as they didnt jam them to begin with so I would/could be getting better hands to fold).
Folding here is fine, since its a marginal spot to begin with. But jamming is way worse than calling. Actually MP+1 is supposed to fold AK, when Hero jam, so by jamming Hero is completely turning his hand into a bluff. And why bluff, if the whole reason to get involved was, that we think, the hand is to good to fold?