Postament hand; AJ vs MrSticker's limp-raise

[ChuckTs]

Interesting hand from the 2K Postament today...

MrS and I have both been playing tight aggressive relative to the shorthanded table, and I think I've raised a few pots PF recently. Trent's Momm has been loose passive (~30/4/1).

What's our range for MrS and what's our action?

pokerstars GAME #8820296370: TOURNAMENT #44837875, $5.00+$0.50 HOLD'EM NO LIMIT - LEVEL I (10/20) - 2007/03/09 - 18:10:57 (ET)
Table '44837875 2' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: pokerrqueeen (3210 in chips)
Seat 3: MrSticker66 (1470 in chips)
Seat 4: ChuckTs (1350 in chips)
Seat 6: dakota-xx (1780 in chips)
Seat 8: Trent's Momm (1190 in chips)
MrSticker66: posts small blind 10
ChuckTs: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ChuckTs [Ah Js]
dakota-xx: folds
Trent's Momm: calls 20
pokerrqueeen: folds
MrSticker66: calls 10
ChuckTs: raises 80 to 100
Trent's Momm: folds
MrSticker66: raises 1370 to 1470 and is all-in
ChuckTs: is confused

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

call if you want to coinflip, 'cos that's what you're doing 90% of the time.

no way does sticker do this with TT+, best case scenario is it's some marginal crap like ATs/KQs, but most of the time this is 22-77 being really silly.

 

[blankoblanco]

Limp-shove in the small blind, very interesting. I see this sometimes with small pairs.. at first they just call for the set value, then they see a raise and decide they don't want to play it out of position so they shove because they figure they have fold equity + even if they get called, they're often 50% to win (note: i do not condone this at this blind level because you're good and screwed against bigger pairs, and it's not worth the risk for those paltry chips). On the other end of the spectrum, I guess it could be AA, but just calling after Trent's Momm has limped would be super bizarre with a really big pair. But, I'm pretty sure it's a pair. I'd imagine we're either slightly behind or, very rarely, way behind. I just fold.

 

[james222]

i would say KK QQ or AA if shes been playing loose passive. passive players arent likely to risk all thier chips unless very strong. Also blinds are still small to stack sizes risking that much so early she most likely has a monster i would quickly fold AJ here. you have plenty of time to find better spots to get all your chips in.

 

[ChuckTs]

With regards to a big ace, what do you call with? AQ+? AK? Not at all?

 

[ChuckTs]

Well I think my call was definitely a gamble; I didn't quite think long enough, but I pinned him on either a small pair (coinflip) or something random like A9 or KJ/KQ.

I think I may have been a little optimistic with those random high card hands, but anyways I call, he shows 44 and I hit my ace.

 

[Stick66]

but most of the time this is 22-77 being really silly.

All I'm gonna say is that I'm pretty sure I'd do it the same way if I had it to do over again. The only argument is that it was too early in the tourney for me to risk it all on a coin flip. Maybe I'll see the light as I think about it more.

 

[Dingodaddy23]

what a horrible horrible play

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

All I'm gonna say is that I'm pretty sure I'd do it the same way if I had it to do over again. The only argument is that it was too early in the tourney for me to risk it all on a coin flip. Maybe I'll see the light as I think about it more.

i think it's pretty horrid (i'm assuming you did have a low pp as your post implies it)

1) it's 10/20, and you're right, why do you want to risk your tourney life with a 75BB stack with a low pair?

2) your shove is not gonna get respect. maybe a donk would fold a biggish hands thinking you have Aces or another big hand, but Chuck isn't a donk, and your limp-shove makes it look like you have exactly what you have. I call with ~77 here, confident i'm ahead most of the time, and confident I'm very very seldom worse than coinflipping.

either Chuck folds (good result), he calls with a hand you're flipping with because he may be justified in doing so with the dead money in the pot if he can add some other marginal hands like ATs/KJs to your range (bad result), or he obviously calls with a hand that has you crushed (bad result).

in the good case, you're adding 200 chips to your stack, in the bad cases you're either flipping for nearly all of your stack or are crushed and drawing to 2 outs with your stack on the line.

i could do some rough EV calculations if you want, but I don't see the point because it seems obvious this isn't a sound play.

 

[Stick66]

i think it's pretty horrid (i'm assuming you did have a low pp as your post implies it)

1) it's 10/20, and you're right, why do you want to risk your tourney life with a 75BB stack with a low pair?

2) your shove is not gonna get respect. maybe a donk would fold a biggish hands thinking you have Aces or another big hand, but Chuck isn't a donk, and your limp-shove makes it look like you have exactly what you have. I call with ~77 here, confident i'm ahead most of the time, and confident I'm very very seldom worse than coinflipping.

either Chuck folds (good result), he calls with a hand you're flipping with because he may be justified in doing so with the dead money in the pot if he can add some other marginal hands like ATs/KJs to your range (bad result), or he obviously calls with a hand that has you crushed (bad result).

in the good case, you're adding 200 chips to your stack, in the bad cases you're either flipping for nearly all of your stack or are crushed and drawing to 2 outs with your stack on the line.

i could do some rough EV calculations if you want, but I don't see the point because it seems obvious this isn't a sound play.

The light is getting brighter.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

shine on, brother~