That's what I been saying as well. Just because there stats say one thing doesn't mean that's how they play. Players do adjust a lot. That can be deceiving.
True but exactly the same is the case with reads gathered in a manual way. Maybe you have seen someone make a very small river bet with second pair and taken a note on it. But maybe next time they are doing it with the nuts to induce a raise. Or they are doing it with 8 high to try to steal the pot for cheap.
Even though I always have my HUD running, very few decisions are actually based on the information, it provides. But if I have good solid information, then why not use it? Lets say, I have 150 hands on someone, and their VPIP over that sample is 28%, but their PFR is only 4%. That means, they have been doing a ton of limping or cold calling, but now they suddenly raise to 5BB from UTG.
Then I am not going to give them action the same way I would someone, who have been playing VPIP 58% / PFR 34%. Against that person I am probably 3-betting AJ for value with intentions to get it in, if he come back over the top. But against the VPIP 28% / PFR 4% I will just fold AJ and get out of his way.
Any kind of exploitative poker is based on making assumptions, that someone is unbalanced in one way or another and then adjust to that inbalance. And of course sometimes we are going to be wrong. Sometimes the PFR 34% will actually have pocket kings, because he is at the very top of his range.
And sometimes the PFR 4% guy will be going crazy with some random hand, because he suffered a bad beat on another table, and now he is on tilt. Or he took a toilet break and handed over the computer to his 11 year old son. But poker is about the long term and averages, and in the long run I am confident, that its way more profitable to take AJ to the felt against the PFR 34% guy than the PFR 4% guy. And this is why, I find a HUD usefull.
