I am of the exact opposite opinion because Shaun is good, Shaun is rich, and Shaun is fearless... but most of all, Shaun is capable of winning in quite literally ANY of the games played at WSOP, which gives him a massive amount of opportunities that Phil Hellmuth simply doesn't have, since almost all of Phil's bracelets come from the one game he's good at, NL Holdem. Phil is competent in other games, but he's not nearly as good at any of them as Shaun is. Deeb is a beast and he never seems to get tired of playing poker. The game is really fun when you're a winner, most of us aren't really winners and we lose interest over the years due to that. Shaun probably won't ever have that problem and I do expect him to have even more than the 20 years he has stated that he has. I don't see any reason why he still can't be winning bracelets when he's Doyle's age. He's only 35, which gives him a very reasonable 30 years to catch Phil if not even more, and he'll only need to win 1 bracelet every 3 years or so to do it, which for his caliber of player is not only reasonable but even quite likely.
3 of Phil's last 5 bracelets have come in non Hold'em games, so he has branched off, and has had some other close calls (going off memory, he lost HU in a Razz event), so I don't think Deeb's advantage is that significant over Hellmuth.
If Phil gets to 20+ bracelets, it's going to be very tough, but I agree that Shaun does play all the games very well and that maximizes his opportunities. However, his weight is an issue as it can lead to other illnesses later in life (ie: Diabetes/Heart Disease). I'm certain he's self-aware and realizes that part of the motivation must include getting healthier. He does have time on his side, so in my opinion, it's 50-50 that he can do it.
Then, other factors may play into the probability of achieving this, such as his own life, and will things away from the poker table reduce his motivation to achieve it? There's no way to predict that, as yes, while he may feel this way at age 35, will he have the same desire 5/10/20 years from now? Will there be something new that draws his interest? Hellmuth's unique in that regard, in that his motivation to winning bracelets hasn't waned over time. If anything, he's become even more motivated. He's also still young enough that, even at age 57, he might have another 10-15 years to win bracelets. Plus, his sons are fully grown, so he's maintained the drive to win bracelets, even with family considerations.
This is an excellent question. I'm leaning towards no, but hopefully Deeb has a good run at it.
