NWPatriot
Rock Star
Silver Level
Is this a hypothetical question using the figurative "you", or is this a personal question and you are looking for someone who can actually do it?
There is a big difference between counting outs and calculating probability. I do think this is a very important skill to develop. A player doesn't need to be able to calculate within 0.001%, but if you can consistently recognize your probability within +-5%, then you are on your way to being able to make very good decisions.
Equilab software actually has a training module for calculating probability to win (this is called equity in equilab terms). This module will present you with a flop and your hole cards based on a range you specify and will then calculate your probability of winning based on a specified opponent range. I use this often as a way to sharpen my skills in this area. Do 10 or 20 of these a day for a week and you may see where you are misunderstanding how probabilities really get calculated. I actually keep a running total of my "training sessions" to make sure I am not losing a skill that I thought I had.
I think it will be very difficult to accurately/consistently) get within +-5% in your head, with the knowledge you already, without using software to tell you the number. Try it and see how you do. If you average +-10%, then this may be an area that a player should spend a little time on. A 10% error could really affect your ability to make good decisions because you are either overestimating your equity by a fair amount or overestimating your opponents equity by a fair amount.
Good luck.
There is a big difference between counting outs and calculating probability. I do think this is a very important skill to develop. A player doesn't need to be able to calculate within 0.001%, but if you can consistently recognize your probability within +-5%, then you are on your way to being able to make very good decisions.
Equilab software actually has a training module for calculating probability to win (this is called equity in equilab terms). This module will present you with a flop and your hole cards based on a range you specify and will then calculate your probability of winning based on a specified opponent range. I use this often as a way to sharpen my skills in this area. Do 10 or 20 of these a day for a week and you may see where you are misunderstanding how probabilities really get calculated. I actually keep a running total of my "training sessions" to make sure I am not losing a skill that I thought I had.
I think it will be very difficult to accurately/consistently) get within +-5% in your head, with the knowledge you already, without using software to tell you the number. Try it and see how you do. If you average +-10%, then this may be an area that a player should spend a little time on. A 10% error could really affect your ability to make good decisions because you are either overestimating your equity by a fair amount or overestimating your opponents equity by a fair amount.
Good luck.
57noona
Legend
Bronze Level
Well said
RasterGFX
Rock Star
Silver Level
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frnandoh
Legend
Bronze Level
Regarding the capability of competitors on a mental calculation championship, It may be possible. Instead all people say it is not possible, I think with hard work I can get it, so I am trying to do it. For awhile is just an experience but I am doing amazing discovers.
PatriceM915
Visionary
Bronze Level
Hello Friend It is the probability of your game winning the game of other players. Nuts is when you have the best possible showdown game in this case is 100% for you. Showdown is when all 5 cards on the table have already been dealt.+_+
F
Fatman0912
Rock Star
Silver Level
You can never be sure what is your probability to win a hand as you don't have info what cards are still in the deck. You don't know what cards your opponent has and what cards the other people at the table had. I personally don't think in probabilities, but of course I have a good idea how strong my hand is. This comes with experience.
M
marvbake
Rock Star
Silver Level
if you're drawing, on flop; count the number of outs you think you have * 4 - (if number of outs is greater than 8 - 8). on turn number of outs * 2.
suppose I have 9 outs on the flop,
that means (9*4) - (9-8) = 35% of hitting my hand on the turn or river.
Calculate your pot odds too. Suppose it's 100 for you to call against 200 in the pot (including bet amount), you're then getting 2:1 or about 66:33. That means you have to either be right at least 33% of the time (if you construct a range, and can beat at least 1/3 of your opponent's range) or if you're drawing, you have to at least have a 33% chance of winning for the call to be profitable
suppose I have 9 outs on the flop,
that means (9*4) - (9-8) = 35% of hitting my hand on the turn or river.
Calculate your pot odds too. Suppose it's 100 for you to call against 200 in the pot (including bet amount), you're then getting 2:1 or about 66:33. That means you have to either be right at least 33% of the time (if you construct a range, and can beat at least 1/3 of your opponent's range) or if you're drawing, you have to at least have a 33% chance of winning for the call to be profitable
S
Space635
Rock Star
Silver Level
It is important to learn how to calculate the probability of hitting the game after the flop (the first three community cards).
The best "formulas" to come up with a realistic prediction are based on the number of outs, ie the remaining cards in the deck.
Between 1 and 8 outs: Multiply the number of outs by 4
Between 9 and 20 outs: Multiply the number of outs by 3 and add 8
Example: After the flop, you have one draw straight and assume that you will only win the pot if you hit it. That means you have 4 outs. By multiplying (4x 4)%, you find that you have a 16% chance of getting the right straight down to the river.
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frnandoh
Legend
Bronze Level
Actually in short term doesn't matter what exactly the villain has on his hand, but being careful about ranges ever help us in long term. Professionals care about ranges and probabilities, so I think it's good to follow their lead.
thetick33
Legend
Silver Level
i can but do i use it? i want to see flops in mtts as much as possible and that is primarily what i play...... i get a flop , i judge opponents range and was this a limp pot etc... so many variables to this..... how much is the bet or cbet am i out of position... is player x very aggro etc... so honestly for me this is a little piece of the pie and I tend not to chase..... i will throw down top two pair often in situation of 3 flush flop and against an aggro person...... my motto is there will be a better time... keep in mind this is based also on my chiip stack at the time the blinds how much is in pot etc... a lot of variables but to chase for a card or cards??? this is what i want opponents to do not me
Dailon Arroyo Blandon
Legend
Bronze Level
Of course, it is proven that the game of poker ... is a game of numbers and calculation of Odds ... so if you become very agile and know what your chances of winning a hand ... you will have a lot chances of success ... of course you also need to have a good reading of your opponents ...!
NWPatriot
Rock Star
Silver Level
....keep in mind that the probability of hitting the outs you have counted, is not the same thing as the probability of winning your hand.
If you are counting outs for a flush, will you have the nut flush or an inferior flush?
If you are counting outs for a straight, will you end up with the idiot end of the straight?
Counting outs is great, but learning how to translate this to true equity (probability of winning the hand) is a good skill to learn.
If you are counting outs for a flush, will you have the nut flush or an inferior flush?
If you are counting outs for a straight, will you end up with the idiot end of the straight?
Counting outs is great, but learning how to translate this to true equity (probability of winning the hand) is a good skill to learn.
vnnby
Legend
Bronze Level
