When will variance throw me a stick?

M

MajorNas

Rising Star
Joined
Mar 13, 2016
Total posts
7
I just started playing online just over a month ago.

Been playing 2NL, and seriously struggling. After going +38$ after an initial buyin, I've been on a serious downswing since then. After two more buy ins, I'm at around -50$, or worse. I'm scared to check.

I was at $22 balance earlier today. I was playing well, until I lost an AA all-in to a J10 suited call pre-flop that beat me with a flush. Then, I lost another AA (with an A on the board) to a straight.

Then, the following happened. I had A5 suited hearts on the flop against 2 villains. Board is Kh Jh 8s. I raised, villain one re-raised, villain two (deep stack) shoved, I called, villain one called. 3 all-ins.

Flop comes a Jc, river comes 2h.

I thought I had won it because I was focused on the flush. Turns out villain 1 had JJ and villain 2 had 88. They split the pot with 4 of a kind and fullhouse.

Unbelievable.

I know I'm venting, but after improving my play, working on my game so meticulously over the past couple of weeks... It just feels like I'm losing cash without establishing a bankroll at the lowest stakes.

My buddy who has 10+ years experience and plays at 200NL right now has analyzed my pokertracker religiously and has helped me iron out many kinks in my game. I'm now averaging a VPIP of 18 with PFR of ~15. In other words, I'm no longer playing marginal hands preflop.

I'm folding a lot more as well.

Essentially, besides me complaining about variance, I'm wondering if there's light at the end of this tunnel.

I really want to take poker seriously and I want it as a source of income. I know it will take time, even a few years... But how am I to get there with such a horrendous start?

Is it possible?

Variance really is not collaborating with me right now.

I'd highly appreciate some feedback. I took many days to cool off and get back into it because I lost 6 buyins in a day which left me crushed... I started playing well again, and then lost 6 today in a crazy turn of events. I feel severely demoralized and want to continue, but it's bloody difficult...

Could you guys share some of your experiences as well? I'm sure I'm not the only one that's gone through something like this....
 
detroitjunkie

detroitjunkie

Visionary
Joined
Oct 11, 2009
Total posts
826
Awards
4
maybe you should change what you are playing to a lower variance game like sng's, heads up play or 6 handed cash, plo instead of nlh, etc...

it takes time, especially when learning, you seem to be on the right track with getting your vpip down, pfr could be higher especially for cash games

good luck
 
XXPXXP

XXPXXP

Legend
Joined
Sep 7, 2012
Total posts
5,511
Awards
2
Yes, there is some way to control the variance.
you need to change a lot in your game system.
find the best way - high rewards low risk, low variance.

PS: for that A5 heart game
don't know how did you play river
but I just want to let you know, "NUT FLUSH IS NOT NUT here with pair board"
 
mbrenneman0

mbrenneman0

Legend
Joined
Mar 19, 2016
Total posts
1,536
Awards
1
That's not variance, that's bad play.

Well okay, its variance but its multiplied by bad bad play..

Don't be so quick to shove all in.

With AA you should make a large raise but not all in.
You shouldn't raise at all with a draw...

And with the hearts, you need to make sure you are getting the right pot odds
 
M

MikeyE8

Rock Star
Joined
Mar 19, 2016
Total posts
116
Keep playing and if you are still losing money, you are probably playing poorly. Look over your sessions and try to find mistakes with your game, so you can fix them.
 
John A

John A

Poker Zion Coach
Joined
Apr 12, 2012
Total posts
6,434
Awards
3
I'll throw you a stick (although it's supposed to be bone, but that doesn't sound right saying it to another dude). Create a free account on pokerzion.com and PM me with your username and I'll give you a free roots course.

Variance can be reduced drastically when you're extracting max value, getting away from second best hands, and picking up the correct small pots. It's an art.
 
TimovieMan

TimovieMan

Legend
Joined
Jan 16, 2016
Total posts
2,264
Create a free account on pokerzion.com and PM me with your username and I'll give you a free roots course.
OP, I'd suggest you do this.

I've only recently started the Roots course at PokerZion, but it's high quality stuff!
 
Yermek

Yermek

Legend
Joined
Oct 9, 2015
Total posts
1,290
Awards
6
Bad luck happens at all. With a large number of hands played will come to skill.
 
PapaC

PapaC

Legend
Joined
Aug 30, 2010
Total posts
2,798
The first thing I see is that you are worrying about the money you are losing instead of focusing on the money you want to win. I've played that game and it is a losing one. Also, you are playing in a lot of MTTs in one day by my standards. And in doing so, you are not saving anything for tomorrow. Sometimes you have to know it's just not your day, and close it down until the next day. GL to you
 
R

Rumme1

Rock Star
Joined
Mar 29, 2016
Total posts
225
maybe you should change what you are playing to a lower variance game like sng's, heads up play or 6 handed cash, plo instead of nlh, etc...

it takes time, especially when learning, you seem to be on the right track with getting your vpip down, pfr could be higher especially for cash games

good luck

the above advice is solid.

in the game of NL hold em, the variance and good luck / bad luck swings can be enourmous.

It is one reason why I will never play hi stakes NL hold em because I dislike the wild swings and the crap shoot nature of the " all in preflop' scenario., Furthermore, if you find out that you are losing your 50/50 hands with a ratio of 75 % losses , over the long term, then that may be another reason to get away from NL hold em. Coin flip hands can mean alot in the game, and if you arent at least winning 50% of the time when you should , then NL hold em will be a long tuff grind.

I find that other poker games have less coin flip factors invovled, and stick to those games much more. 7 card stud hi lo, is one such game. it makes big pots and memory is a big advantage in it.
 
Top