What's Wrong With the Odds?

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Ichnusa1

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Hi Guys and Girls

I’m relatively new to poker (NLHE mainly) and I’m trying to get my head around all the main concepts of poker. Below is an example that caused lots of confusion in my head with equity and chances of winning a pot with specific cards.

My holding: KdQd
Villain’s holding: Ac8s

When I checked with PokerStove my chance of winning pre-flop I was very surprised to find out how big chance I had

KdQd - 46.377%
Ac8s - 53.623%



I don’t know how it’s possible that I am only 1.2:1 underdog with this holding if in order to win I have to hit a K or a Q and avoid any 8 and A. I have only 6 outs so only 6 cards can help me to win the pot and 44 will bust me.

One in 6.3 cards make me a winner here and I have 5 chances to hit the card (flop, turn, river) – that’s a pretty big chance of winning. The problem I see is that my opponent is he winner already and has exactly the same chance of hitting a pair, two pairs, set, full-house and even quads. The only advantage I have is the chance of hitting straight or flush? Would this make so much difference and improve my chance of winning that much?

Can you please tell me where do I make mistake? What am I missing here?

Please help 

Thanks
 
P

ph_il

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That's accurate.

Being suited, you get a ~3% increase on your equity. Also, being connecting cards gives you a slight more equity than if the weren't. For example Kd9d is only ~44%.

Your 46% equity is the chance that you'll make something by the river all added up. So that's any pair, 2 pair, trips, etc with a bigger edge on making a straight or flush over A8o. True A8 has the same chance of pairing or better, and can win if you both miss, which is why it has a slight edge preflop.

Also, your equity will quickly drop as the board comes out and you miss. On the turn, if you have no draws other than a single pair, you drop to 12% equity.

Look up pokestove for a more in depth look at preflop equity.
 
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braveslice

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No idea of the correct answer but just created the following model =) I only tested it in two cases where it seemed to hold quite close. I did not wan’t to test it more, because well these never quite hold the candle



  1. Probability get one out per street is 2% times outs.
  2. Flush potential adds 0.5 outs
  3. Str potential adds 0.5 outs
  4. Opponent strength deduction when dominating ie no clean outs for hero if villain hits
b)
So in this case KdQd vs Ac8s:


Part 1: 1.+2.+3. = 5 streets x 2% x 7 outs = 70%
Part 2: 4., A is dominating, getting A 3 outs, applying 1. 5 streets x 2% x 3 outs = 30%
Part 3: Because opponent dominates 30% of the time, only 70% of the time hero’s out are outs, Part1xPart2 = 0.7*0.7 = 49%
;p
 
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braveslice

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Model seems to give better values if 2. Flush potential adds 0.3 outs similar to 3. Str potential adds 0.3 outs.

Then KdQd vs Ac8s gives 46.2%
Also testing KdQd vs Ac8c gives 0.66*0.67 = 44.22% that is error under 0.5% =)
 
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Pokerplayer007

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Correction to statement

I know this is old, but would like to make a correction. You stated that you need to avoid an 8 or A. That is not true, as you only need to avoid the A. If your opponent hits a pair of 8’s, you would still beat them if you hit one of your pairs. A pair of K’s beats pair of 8’s.
 
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CallmeFloppy

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There are a lot more combinations of hands that can give you a winning hand than just the Ks and Qs. You have suited connectors so straight and flush draws are more likely to hit and give you the best hand. An 8 doesn't hurt you as a Q or K would give you a better pair.
 
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