What are the odds?

robwhufc

robwhufc

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This is a promotion i received from a site

http://sdm3.rm04.net/ctt?kn=2&m=1118536&r=ODU3NjAwMDYyMQS2&b=0&j=MzQxMDM5MzAS1&mt=1This Friday, Saturday and Sunday, if 8-4-6 suited appears on the flop (in that order!) while you’re playing a real-money cash game, we will reward every player in that hand with a £50 CASH REWARD!*
Remember, you must be playing a real-money cash game and only the flop card combinations as shown on the right will qualify.
If you qualify for the £50 reward you will receive a confirmation email from us, and your account will be credited on Monday 15th October.
It’s all in the luck of the draw!
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Don’t forget, you can watch it, play on it,
maybe even star on it...
[/FONT]


So what are the odds of flopping 8,4,6 suited (in that order) in any one hand?

http://sdm3.rm04.net/ctt?kn=2&m=1118536&r=ODU3NjAwMDYyMQS2&b=0&j=MzQxMDM5MzAS1&mt=1
http://sdm3.rm04.net/ctt?kn=2&m=1118536&r=ODU3NjAwMDYyMQS2&b=0&j=MzQxMDM5MzAS1&mt=1

 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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I think it would be (4/52)*(1/51)*(1/50) which is about a 33000:1 shot.

BUT 50 POUNDS!
 
G

guy incognito

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what are the odds of this.....

sitting in a tournament, full table. in the space of just 17 hands, i have a straight three times and bet all the way through to the river. Only two players left each time (myself and villian), and my three straights are beaten by the same guy, each time with a (one-card) higher straight.

bastard:mad:
 
skd1337

skd1337

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what are the odds of this.....

sitting in a tournament, full table. in the space of just 17 hands, i have a straight three times and bet all the way through to the river. Only two players left each time (myself and villian), and my three straights are beaten by the same guy, each time with a (one-card) higher straight.

bastard:mad:

fascinating reading, but is it relevant? its a thread about a promotion, not a place for annoying beats.

Sorry if that sounds really cynical, it's not meant to.
 
zachvac

zachvac

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I think it would be (4/52)*(1/51)*(1/50) which is about a 33000:1 shot.

BUT 50 POUNDS!

That means if you play 23000 hands over those 3 days, the odds are you will see a flop like that.

That's 7667 hands per day, so if you play 24 hours a day, you just have to play 320 hands per hour, easy if you want to multi-table. I don't know how much 50 pounds is in American currency, but you could 9-table 24/7 for 3 days and probably have close to a 75% chance of winning, because 9-tabling puts you over 320 hands per hour. And since it's 50 pounds regardless of stakes, just sit in on the lowest stakes they offer :)
 
xtreme_calibur

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That means if you play 23000 hands over those 3 days, the odds are you will see a flop like that.

That's 7667 hands per day, so if you play 24 hours a day, you just have to play 320 hands per hour, easy if you want to multi-table. I don't know how much 50 pounds is in American currency, but you could 9-table 24/7 for 3 days and probably have close to a 75% chance of winning, because 9-tabling puts you over 320 hands per hour. And since it's 50 pounds regardless of stakes, just sit in on the lowest stakes they offer :)

wow zach, you REALLY have way too much time on your hands!
 
robwhufc

robwhufc

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wow zach, you REALLY have way too much time on your hands!
All wasted because he didn't take 10 seconds to check he was calculating from the right figure! It was 33,000/1 (33,150/1) actually, not 23,000/1.

(and £50 = $100).
 
zachvac

zachvac

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All wasted because he didn't take 10 seconds to check he was calculating from the right figure! It was 33,000/1 (33,150/1) actually, not 23,000/1.

(and £50 = $100).

Actually I wasn't, if you play 23,000 hands, the odds are greater than 50% that you will see that 1 in 33,150.

(1-(1/33150))^23000 = .49966 < .5

The odds of that flop NOT coming up 23000 in a row (meaning you don't win any of those 23,000 times) is 49.966% meaning you win 50.03% of the time.
 
DaFrench1

DaFrench1

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Odds? pah

Forget the true odds. I get that flop about 3 times per hour, its almost a guarantee if you have AK. Sounds like easy money to me :D.

What site is this btw?
 
pigpen02

pigpen02

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50 British Pounds. Wow. That's 218,317 Venezuelan Bolivars!
 
xtreme_calibur

xtreme_calibur

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Had to do something during math class :)
that incinuates that your still in school. so why you play poker? how old are you, 12? your mother is going to ground you dude!!
 
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