The math of combos and pot odds:
I am working with a friend to develop a plan for a poker study group for women. One of the areas we will cover are math concepts. This is for a group of mixed abilities and experience with poker. We want to provide some important concepts that we can immediately incorporate into our games.
Can you help me identify which math concepts you think are most important to cover?
Also, if you have your own way to remember, explain, and/or use these concepts in game, please provide your insights.
There is a deck of 52 cards. We have 16 different AK, we have 4 AK that are suited, and we have 12 AK that are off-suited .
For unpaired hands: 16 combos = (4 suited hands and 12 off-suited hands)
Pairs: 6 total combos in deck
1 combo equals a possibility, one of the possible hands of a certain sequence of cards it has.
Very simple formula: AK for example X * Y (A * K) How many aces are in the deck? And how many kings? 4 aces * 4 kings = 16 combos for AK. TT paired hands for example 6 3 1 X * (X-1)/2
Start the game thinking about combos because this enhances the game a lot.
How to calculate the value combos opponent has and bluff
combos, and our pot odds. The villain on the BTN is betting $ 20.50 into a $ 27.48 pot, we have 30% pot odds. If his number of bluffs is greater than 30% of his number of value combos we have a profitable call. That is, we are holding A3 in the Big Blind and we have more than 31% equity against the BTN range, Big Blind has to call here. Profile your opponent and know which hands it arrives with on the river.
Understand a player who is very aggressive, very straightforward , let's see if against this type of player we make a profitable call. Obviously the number of value and bluff combos varies from one player to the other. That’s why it's important to profile it to get his hands on a RANGE.
Sometimes a player will bluff the river with a busted T9o and other times another player, with a different profile will not make this type of bluff. What hands is this player capable of doing this? It is important to make notes on opponents. In this case we are playing against an aggressive player who is capable of bluffing
flop, turn and river. What are the value hands he can have there?
BTN raised 3x, it c-bets flop we call, c-bets turn we call,and on the river c-bets large. We have to make a decision:
Which value hands does it have here? AA, 66, 77, 22, KK, A6, A7, A2, 67s (50 possible hand combos)
Potential missed draws: 8h9h, QsJs, 17 bluff combos.
What calculation do we do? 17 / 67 Bluff Combos / (Value Combos + Bluff Combos) * 100 = 25% We need his number of bluffs to be greater than 30%, because we only win 25% of the times: and we need to win 30% of the time to our call to be profitable.